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Ireland general election: exit polls show coalition losing majority – live Ireland general election: exit polls show coalition losing majority – live
(35 minutes later)
12.36pm GMT
12:36
Here’s a brief guide to Ireland’s proportional representation voting system (via the Associated Press):
Voters get one ballot but can vote for as many listed candidates as they like in order of preference.
You can vote for every single politician with a hand-written No. 1, 2, 3 and so on. In Dublin South West, voters could pick from 1 to 21.
The preferential voting means ballots must be counted and recounted in multiple rounds.
At the end of each round, another winner on top is declared or, if nobody new has crossed that mathematical finish line, the weakest loser is eliminated.
Ballots that awarded the loser a No. 1 are recounted, with lower-preference votes transferred to any candidates still in contention.
The system is designed to ensure that small parties and independents get a better chance to win a seat. The goal is to fill all 158 seats in Dail Eireann, the key lower house of parliament that elects the government.
Clear on that? Good..
12.27pm GMT
12:27
The ‘big beasts’ are starting to arrive at Dublin’s election count centre, including Sinn Féin’s Martin McGuinness, the deputy first minister of Northern Ireland.
Massive cheer for Sinn Féin's Martin McGuiness as he arrives at the RDS pic.twitter.com/Q6DzRxfAzZ
Updated
at 12.30pm GMT
12.22pm GMT
12:22
I’ve just been speaking to a former senior advisor to Fianna Fáil in government, who says that it appears to have been a good election for his party, but freely admits that a “dynamic change” is under way in Irish politics.
“There certainly would seem to be a shift to the left,” said Derek Mooney. “We are seeing the clear emergence of a left but it’s not hard left versus right politics. There is a dynamic change away from the old party blocks.
“Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are now fishing out of the same pond and it’s increasingly a small one.”
Have a listen:
Updated
at 12.31pm GMT
12.18pm GMT
12:18
Fine Gael’s Richard Bruton has ruled out a second election – leaving us to assume that there will be a concerted attempt to reach a deal on a new government.
Whether that is between the two big beasts of Irish politics, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, remains to be seen
The Guardian’s Henry McDonald asked Bruton if another election was on the cards, given the messy outcome of this one, to which he replied tersely but firmly: “No, I don’t think so.”
'Will there be another election?' @henry_mcdonald asks FG's Richard BrutonAnswer: "I don't think so"FF/FG deal on? pic.twitter.com/nSewXI8S60
Updated
at 12.32pm GMT
12.05pm GMT12.05pm GMT
12:0512:05
The casualties are beginning to emerge. After a collapse of his support in the Dublin south central constituency, Labour party TD Eric Byrne has resigned himself to defeat. The casualties are beginning to emerge. After a collapse of his support in the Dublin south central constituency, Labour party TD, Eric Byrne, has resigned himself to defeat.
It’s an early blow to Labour, which had been widely tipped to be facing a drubbing of the sort which Britain’s Liberal Democrats faced in the UK general election, after being the junior partner in a coalition which implemented an austerity-driven agenda.It’s an early blow to Labour, which had been widely tipped to be facing a drubbing of the sort which Britain’s Liberal Democrats faced in the UK general election, after being the junior partner in a coalition which implemented an austerity-driven agenda.
Eric Byrne, the outgoing Labour TD in Dublin South-Central, has conceded that he will lose his seat https://t.co/PJytYkDFbKEric Byrne, the outgoing Labour TD in Dublin South-Central, has conceded that he will lose his seat https://t.co/PJytYkDFbK
Other Labour TDs who appear to be in early trouble include Arthur Spring in Kerry, son of a former leader of the party.Other Labour TDs who appear to be in early trouble include Arthur Spring in Kerry, son of a former leader of the party.
UpdatedUpdated
at 12.08pm GMT at 12.32pm GMT
12.01pm GMT12.01pm GMT
12:0112:01
New to Irish politics? Here’s a handy guide to what have been the main parties in recent times (not including relatively new entrants such as the Social Democrats and Renua, a new right of centre force):New to Irish politics? Here’s a handy guide to what have been the main parties in recent times (not including relatively new entrants such as the Social Democrats and Renua, a new right of centre force):
Fine Gael: A party born out of loyalty to Irish independence military leader Michael Collins, who was assassinated by republican diehards for accepting the 1921 Anglo Irish Treaty that partitioned Ireland. Now centre-right in economic policy, strongly pro-European and increasingly socially liberal. Won 76 seats in the 2011 general election – an all-time high. Fine Gael: A party born out of loyalty to Irish independence military leader Michael Collins, who was assassinated by republican diehards for accepting the 1921 Anglo-Irish Treaty that partitioned Ireland. Now centre-right in economic policy, strongly pro-European and increasingly socially liberal. Won 76 seats in the 2011 general election: an all-time high.
Fianna Fáil: Founded by Michael Collins’ great civil war rival Éamon de Valera, the party ultimately accepted the Anglo Irish settlement and became the most successful political force in post-independence Irish history. Economically centrist, often populist, it was blamed for the collapse of the Celtic Tiger amid allegations that the party was too close to property speculators and bankers. In the last election it crashed to just 20 seats. Fianna Fáil: Founded by Michael Collins’s great civil war rival, Éamon de Valera, the party ultimately accepted the Anglo-Irish settlement and became the most successful political force in post-independence Irish history. Economically centrist, often populist, it was blamed for the collapse of the Celtic Tiger amid allegations that the party was too close to property speculators and bankers. In the last election it crashed to just 20 seats.
Sinn Féin: The party once known around the world as the political wing of the Provisional IRA has benefited enormously from the Northern Ireland peace process. Led by Gerry Adams, it had 14 seats in the last Dáil and is expected to build on that number this time around, positioning itself as a party of protest against austerity cuts.Sinn Féin: The party once known around the world as the political wing of the Provisional IRA has benefited enormously from the Northern Ireland peace process. Led by Gerry Adams, it had 14 seats in the last Dáil and is expected to build on that number this time around, positioning itself as a party of protest against austerity cuts.
Labour: The oldest party in the state and rooted in the trade unions, Labour faces the possibility of electoral meltdown akin to the Liberal Democrat wipeout in the UK last year. Labour was at the vanguard of social change as junior partner in the current government, championing the gay marriage referendum, but it also took flak over the coalition’s unpopular tax rises and public spending cuts.Labour: The oldest party in the state and rooted in the trade unions, Labour faces the possibility of electoral meltdown akin to the Liberal Democrat wipeout in the UK last year. Labour was at the vanguard of social change as junior partner in the current government, championing the gay marriage referendum, but it also took flak over the coalition’s unpopular tax rises and public spending cuts.
Anti Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit: Both parties are rooted in the far-left Socialist party (former Militant Tendency) and the Socialist Workers party. They draw support, like Sinn Féin, from urban working-class areas where there is widespread discontent over austerity.Anti Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit: Both parties are rooted in the far-left Socialist party (former Militant Tendency) and the Socialist Workers party. They draw support, like Sinn Féin, from urban working-class areas where there is widespread discontent over austerity.
Updated
at 12.41pm GMT
11.45am GMT11.45am GMT
11:4511:45
A little bit of gossip for you now from the Fianna Fáil camp. It appears that the party is weighing up two options, according to sources who have been speaking to my colleague, Henry McDonald. Those options are: A little bit of gossip for you now from the Fianna Fáil camp: It appears that the party is weighing up two options, according to sources who have been speaking to my colleague, Henry McDonald. Those options are:
Take the above with a pinch of salt. Everyone spins, but it’s an insight into Fianna Fáil’s possible thinking at this point, after a surprisingly good election for the party, which many had written off after it was decimated five years ago.Take the above with a pinch of salt. Everyone spins, but it’s an insight into Fianna Fáil’s possible thinking at this point, after a surprisingly good election for the party, which many had written off after it was decimated five years ago.
Here’s a reminder of that dark day for the party, which translates into English as The Soldiers of Destiny:Here’s a reminder of that dark day for the party, which translates into English as The Soldiers of Destiny:
Related: Fianna Fáil trounced as Fine Gael and Labour set to form coalitionRelated: Fianna Fáil trounced as Fine Gael and Labour set to form coalition
UpdatedUpdated
at 12.05pm GMT at 12.42pm GMT
11.40am GMT11.40am GMT
11:4011:40
Here are some scenes from the counting centre in Dublin. There’s a lack of “big beast” politicians just yet, although activists are bedding in.Here are some scenes from the counting centre in Dublin. There’s a lack of “big beast” politicians just yet, although activists are bedding in.
Scenes from Irish general election counting in Dublin #ge16 https://t.co/DaP8x25u84Scenes from Irish general election counting in Dublin #ge16 https://t.co/DaP8x25u84
UpdatedUpdated
at 12.03pm GMTat 12.03pm GMT
11.24am GMT11.24am GMT
11:2411:24
Enda Kenny’s biographer has been summing up his prospects of remaining as Ireland’s prime minister after all the post-election horse trading. Enda Kenny’s biographer has been summing up his prospects of remaining as Ireland’s prime minister after all the post-election horse-trading.
John Downing writes in the Irish Independent:John Downing writes in the Irish Independent:
At the very best, Mr Kenny will have to find and deploy considerable political wizardry if he is going to stay on as anchor tenant in Government Buildings.At the very best, Mr Kenny will have to find and deploy considerable political wizardry if he is going to stay on as anchor tenant in Government Buildings.
But a boost for Fianna Fáil also means pressure for the party to make groundbreaking decisions in a likely hung Dáil. It also opens intriguing possibilities for other coalition options.But a boost for Fianna Fáil also means pressure for the party to make groundbreaking decisions in a likely hung Dáil. It also opens intriguing possibilities for other coalition options.
Downing’s book, written after Fine Gael’s 2011 electoral triumph, is titled The Unlikely Taoiseach. How much more “unlikely” will it be that Kenny holds the centre of power given his party’s losses this time around?Downing’s book, written after Fine Gael’s 2011 electoral triumph, is titled The Unlikely Taoiseach. How much more “unlikely” will it be that Kenny holds the centre of power given his party’s losses this time around?
UpdatedUpdated
at 11.41am GMT at 12.43pm GMT
11.20am GMT11.20am GMT
11:2011:20
One of the many stories from Ireland’s post-economic crisis elections has been the rise of support for leftist groupings and individual campaigners.One of the many stories from Ireland’s post-economic crisis elections has been the rise of support for leftist groupings and individual campaigners.
It’s a trend which appears to be alive and well. In the five-seat north Dublin constituency of Fingal for example, early indications are that one such politician, Clare Daly, is taking an early lead.It’s a trend which appears to be alive and well. In the five-seat north Dublin constituency of Fingal for example, early indications are that one such politician, Clare Daly, is taking an early lead.
In the south Dublin constituency of Dún Laoghaire, also a five seater, the high profile far left TD Richard Boyd Barrett is putting up a fight to hold on to the seat which he won at the last election.In the south Dublin constituency of Dún Laoghaire, also a five seater, the high profile far left TD Richard Boyd Barrett is putting up a fight to hold on to the seat which he won at the last election.
Richard Boyd Barrett, a leading voice in the Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit grouping, is on 14.7 % in early counting, but could yet be squeezed out later on as transfers between other parties take effect.Richard Boyd Barrett, a leading voice in the Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit grouping, is on 14.7 % in early counting, but could yet be squeezed out later on as transfers between other parties take effect.
#dunl #GE16 @sundaybusiness Boyd Barrett arriving at count centre feeling confident pic.twitter.com/O8hTqeTUBq#dunl #GE16 @sundaybusiness Boyd Barrett arriving at count centre feeling confident pic.twitter.com/O8hTqeTUBq
UpdatedUpdated
at 11.47am GMTat 11.47am GMT
11.11am GMT
11:11
Were Sinn Féin hurt by recent coverage the carried echoes of the “bad old days”? There have been stories about a former IRA man who is being sought for extradition in Spain, and the sentencing last week of a former IRA commander to 18 months in jail for tax evasion.
One of the party’s TDs (member of parliament), Jonathan O’Brien, has insisted that such issues did not really come up on the doors during the campaign.
He told RTE:
I can only really speak for Cork North central, but people were engaged more in issues like homelessness and the economy. Maybe they do affect people’s voting … but I can’t say.
Another one of the party’s senior leaders, Pearse Doherty, suggested that it was possible that the party could double its support:
These last seats are going to come down to a handful of votes in a handful of constituencies and we will be fighting for them.
Updated
at 11.19am GMT
10.57am GMT
10:57
Some predictability at last perhaps, via the Twitter feed of Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams.
Not quite to everyone’s taste, perhaps, but there you go:
2 busy working yesterday 2 get black & white pudding. Really missed them in fry. Did U know RG is a sorta veggie? Dipped bread 4 him.
Updated
at 11.17am GMT
10.46am GMT
10:46
Ireland is experiencing a “post traumatic election”, according to political commentator Noel Whelan, a former advisor to Fianna Fail.
The last election came in the midst of Ireland’s economic collapse, which effectively saw it surrender sovereignty to the “troika” of the European Commission, ECB and IMF. The impact of that economic turmoil continues to reverberate.
Whelan said on RTE:
Even if people are feeling a bit better, they are deeply seared by the trauma they have been through. People say: ‘It’s the economy stupid’.
But ‘It’s society stupid’. People are hurting and by god they are letting everybody know about it at the ballot box.
Of course, three years ago Ireland became the first stricken eurozone state to exit its rescue programme. That does not appear to have translated into an election win for the government, which campaigned with the slogan “keep the recovery going”.
In the last few weeks of the campaign, Enda Kenny appeared to have made a pivotal error when he called some people in his hometown “whingers”. He later claimed the barb was directed at political opponents.
Updated
at 11.16am GMT
10.26am GMT
10:26
It’s worth recording that the UK’s prime minister, David Cameron, is in Northern Ireland today as part of his campaign for British voters to remain in the EU in the upcoming referendum.
As it happens, many commentators in Ireland regard the UK’s referendum as being potentially more important for the long-term future of Ireland than the Irish general election. The UK still accounts for about 15% of Irish goods exports.
Will Cameron be following today’s results? It’s very likely, given that Enda Kenny was one of his closest allies during his negotiations in Brussels earlier this month.
Indeed, some feel that Cameron came close to endorsing Kenny’s government when he told the Irish Independent:
I wouldn’t give advice, but that last part sounded to me like a long-term economic plan that is working for people in the Republic.
On the basis of exit polls and very early results, it looks like most Irish voters have taken a different view.
Updated
at 11.13am GMT
10.19am GMT
10:19
An early frontrunner in the constituency of Dublin Central is Sinn Féin’s vice-president, Mary Lou McDonald, who is on 22% of the vote after the opening of 16% of ballot boxes.
Updated
at 11.10am GMT
10.14am GMT
10:14
A prediction by Fine Gael’s general secretary, Tom Curran, who says that the party may lose up to 20 seats and fall well below 50 if the exit polls are correct.
10.11am GMT
10:11
Let’s zero in on one of the constituencies now, that of the deputy prime minister and Labour leader Joan Burton, who was expected to face a struggle to hold on to her seat.
With 10% of ballot boxes open in the Dublin west constituency, she appears to be holding up for now:
Updated
at 11.10am GMT
10.02am GMT
10:02
Is there an appetite for another election? Recent polling suggests it might be the most favoured option of the electorate.
As Dan O’Brien, the Dublin-based chief economist at the Institute of International and European Affairs, tweets:
1/2 What will voters want now that there is a hung Dail? @TheSundayIndo/MB found a 2nd election most favoured (33%) pic.twitter.com/U8FkK2pRcU
Updated
at 11.08am GMT
9.59am GMT
09:59
Both of Ireland’s coalition parties will be deeply disappointed by the results of last night’s exit poll from the Irish Times (and also with this morning’s one from RTE), writes the veteran Irish Times political commentator, Stephen Collins.
He adds:
By contrast, Fianna Fáil has exceeded the expectations it had at the start of the campaign. Party leader Micheál Martin had the best campaign of any party leader and his message of fairness resonated with a wide swathe of the electorate.
That Fianna Fáil has narrowed the gap with Fine Gael to just over three percentage points just five years after the greatest disaster in the party’s history indicates how resilient it is.
Updated
at 11.08am GMT
9.26am GMT
09:26
Henry McDonald
Some more analysis now of the backdrop to today’s results, courtesy of the Guardian’s Henry McDonald:
The outgoing Fine Gael-Labour coalition was elected back in 2011 on a landslide with the biggest ever parliamentary majority since Ireland gained independence from Britain.
After three successive terms for Fianna Fáil, the Republic’s electorate appeared to have ushered in a political revolution five years ago.
Anger over the way Fianna Fáil had been seen to mismanage the economy and lose economic sovereignty resulted in Fine Gael returning with 76 seats, while Labour came back into the Dáil with 33.
So how come five years on the two parties whose lead looked unassailable at the start of this government have failed so miserably to secure a second term?
Part of the reason lies in the austerity medicine administered by the Fine Gael-Labour coalition in its early years. After the financial crash and the arrival of the International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank to macro-manage Irish economic affairs, the cupboard was almost bare.
The new government had to plug a multibillion euro gap in the nation’s finances, and did so by raising taxes and cutting public spending. Like a certain female prime minister across the Irish Sea in the 1980s, Fine Gael might argue that the medicine worked and no matter how unpleasant it was to swallow, it has turned the economy around.
Ireland is enjoying 7% growth and more than 120,000 jobs have been created in the government’s lifetime. However, many Irish voters clearly thought that the treatment was not only too harsh – cuts, taxes, new water charges – but also unfair.
They saw the bankers blamed for over-borrowing and equally rapacious property speculators avoiding jail, while those living on low incomes who could not or would not pay for water charges being imprisoned.
For much of the electorate, the distribution of the pain as Ireland bowed to IMF-ECB demands and drove down the national debt was loaded in the wrong direction.
Hence the widely spread protest vote for a disparate range of parties, including Sinn Féin, leftist groupings and non-aligned, local issue independents.
However, the greatest paradox of this election, if the two exit polls accurately reflect the first preference voting patterns, is the comeback of Fianna Fáil.
There’s going to be a short period now of radio silence while I locate a good vantage point inside the RDS conference centre. Stay tuned …
Updated
at 11.05am GMT