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Ireland general election: exit polls show coalition losing majority – live Ireland general election: exit polls show coalition losing majority – live
(35 minutes later)
11.24am GMT
11:24
Enda Kenny’s biographer has been summing up the prospects of Ireland’s Taoiseach, Enda Kenny, remaining in the post after all the post-election horse trading.
John Downing writes in The Irish Independent:
At the very best, Mr Kenny will have to find and deploy considerable political wizardry if he is going to stay on as anchor tenant in Government Buildings.
But a boost for Fianna Fáil also means pressure for the party to make groundbreaking decisions in a likely hung Dáil. It also opens intriguing possibilities for other coalition options.
Downing’s book, written after Fine Gael’s 2011 electoral triumph, is titled “The Unlikely Taoiseach”. How more ‘unlikely’ will it be that Kenny holds the centre of power given his party’s losses this time around.
11.20am GMT
11:20
One of the many stories from Ireland’s post economic crisis elections has been the rise of support for Far Left groupings and individual campaigners.
It’s a trend which appears to be alive and well. In the five-seat north Dublin constituency of Fingal for example, early indications are that one such politician, Clare Daly is taking an early lead.
In the south Dublin constituency of Dun Laoghaire, also a five seater, the high profile Far Left TD Richard Boyd Barrett is putting up a fight to hold on to the seat which he won at the last election.
Boyd Barrett, a leading voice in the Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit grouping is on 14.7 % in early counting of ballot boxes but could yet be squeezed out later on as transfers between other parties take affect.
11.11am GMT
11:11
Were Sinn Féin hurt by recent coverage the carried echoes of the “bad old days”? There have been stories about a former IRA man who is being sought for extradition in Spain, and the sentencing last week of a former IRA commander to 18 months in jail for tax evasion.
One of the party’s TDs (member of parliament), Jonathan O’Brien, has insisted that such issues did not really come up on the doors during the campaign.
He told RTE:
I can only really speak for Cork North central, but people were engaged more in issues like homelessness and the economy. Maybe they do affect people’s voting … but I can’t say.
Another one of the party’s senior leaders, Pearse Doherty, suggested that it was possible that the party could double its support:
These last seats are going to come down to a handful of votes in a handful of constituencies and we will be fighting for them.
Updated
at 11.19am GMT
10.57am GMT10.57am GMT
10:5710:57
Some predictability at last perhaps, via the Twitter feed of Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams. Some predictability at last perhaps, via the Twitter feed of Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams.
Not quite to everyone’s taste, perhaps, but there you go:Not quite to everyone’s taste, perhaps, but there you go:
2 busy working yesterday 2 get black & white pudding. Really missed them in fry. Did U know RG is a sorta veggie? Dipped bread 4 him.2 busy working yesterday 2 get black & white pudding. Really missed them in fry. Did U know RG is a sorta veggie? Dipped bread 4 him.
Updated
at 11.17am GMT
10.46am GMT10.46am GMT
10:4610:46
Ireland is experiencing a “post traumatic election”, according to political commentator Noel Whelan, a former advisor to Fianna Fail.Ireland is experiencing a “post traumatic election”, according to political commentator Noel Whelan, a former advisor to Fianna Fail.
While the last election came in the midst of Ireland’s economic collapse, which effectively saw it surrender sovereignty to the so-called ‘Troika’ of the European Commission, ECB and IMF, the impact of that is still reverberating. The last election came in the midst of Ireland’s economic collapse, which effectively saw it surrender sovereignty to the “troika” of the European Commission, ECB and IMF. The impact of that economic turmoil continues to reverberate.
Whelan said on RTE:Whelan said on RTE:
Even if people are feeling a bit better they are deeply seared by the trauma they have been through. People say: ‘It’s the economy stupid’. Even if people are feeling a bit better, they are deeply seared by the trauma they have been through. People say: ‘It’s the economy stupid’.
But ‘It’s society stupid’. People are hurting and by god they are letting everybody know about it at the ballot box.But ‘It’s society stupid’. People are hurting and by god they are letting everybody know about it at the ballot box.
Of course, three years ago Ireland became the first stricken eurozone state to exit its rescue programme. That does not appear to have translated into an election win for the government, which campaigned on a slogan of ‘Keep the Recovery Going.’ Of course, three years ago Ireland became the first stricken eurozone state to exit its rescue programme. That does not appear to have translated into an election win for the government, which campaigned with the slogan “keep the recovery going”.
In the last few weeks of the campaign, Taoiseach Enda Kenny appeared to have made a pivotal error when he called some people in his hometown “whingers”. He later claimed it was directed at political opponents In the last few weeks of the campaign, Enda Kenny appeared to have made a pivotal error when he called some people in his hometown “whingers”. He later claimed the barb was directed at political opponents.
Updated
at 11.16am GMT
10.26am GMT10.26am GMT
10:2610:26
It’s worth recording that the UK’s prime minister, David Cameron, is in Northern Ireland today as part of campaigning for British voters to remain in the EU in the upcoming referendum. It’s worth recording that the UK’s prime minister, David Cameron, is in Northern Ireland today as part of his campaign for British voters to remain in the EU in the upcoming referendum.
As it happens, many commentators in Ireland regard the UK’s referendum as being potentially more important for the long-term future of Ireland. The UK still accounts for around 15 per cent of Irish goods exports. As it happens, many commentators in Ireland regard the UK’s referendum as being potentially more important for the long-term future of Ireland than the Irish general election. The UK still accounts for about 15% of Irish goods exports.
Will cameron be following today’s results? It’s very likely, given that Enda Kenny was one of this closest allies during the UK’s attempts to reach a deal in Brussels earlier this month on its position in the union. Will Cameron be following today’s results? It’s very likely, given that Enda Kenny was one of his closest allies during his negotiations in Brussels earlier this month.
Indeed, some feel that the prime minister has come close to endorsing Kenny’s government during the election, telling the Irish Independent: Indeed, some feel that Cameron came close to endorsing Kenny’s government when he told the Irish Independent:
I wouldn’t give advice, but that last part sounded to me like a long-term economic plan that is working for people in the Republic.I wouldn’t give advice, but that last part sounded to me like a long-term economic plan that is working for people in the Republic.
On the basis of exit polls and very early results, it looks like most Irish voters have taken a different view.On the basis of exit polls and very early results, it looks like most Irish voters have taken a different view.
Updated
at 11.13am GMT
10.19am GMT10.19am GMT
10:1910:19
An early front runner in the constituency of Dublin Central is Sinn Fein’s vice president, Mary Lou McDonald, who is on 22% of the vote after the opening of 16% of ballot boxes. An early frontrunner in the constituency of Dublin Central is Sinn Féin’s vice-president, Mary Lou McDonald, who is on 22% of the vote after the opening of 16% of ballot boxes.
Updated
at 11.10am GMT
10.14am GMT10.14am GMT
10:1410:14
A prediction by Fine Gael’s general secretary, Tom Curran, who says that the party may lose up to 20 seats and fall well below 50 if the exit polls are correct.A prediction by Fine Gael’s general secretary, Tom Curran, who says that the party may lose up to 20 seats and fall well below 50 if the exit polls are correct.
10.11am GMT10.11am GMT
10:1110:11
So let’s zero in on one of the constituencies now, that of the Tanaiste (deputy Irish prime minister) Joan Burton, who was expected to face a struggle to hold on to her seat. Let’s zero in on one of the constituencies now, that of the deputy prime minister and Labour leader Joan Burton, who was expected to face a struggle to hold on to her seat.
With 10% of ballot boxes open in the Dublin west constituency, she appears to be holding up for now:With 10% of ballot boxes open in the Dublin west constituency, she appears to be holding up for now:
Updated
at 11.10am GMT
10.02am GMT10.02am GMT
10:0210:02
Is there an appetite for yet another election. Recent polling suggests it might be the most favoured option of the electorate Is there an appetite for another election? Recent polling suggests it might be the most favoured option of the electorate.
As Dan O’Brien, the Dublin-based chief economist at the Institute of International and European Affairs, tweets:As Dan O’Brien, the Dublin-based chief economist at the Institute of International and European Affairs, tweets:
1/2 What will voters want now that there is a hung Dail? @TheSundayIndo/MB found a 2nd election most favoured (33%) pic.twitter.com/U8FkK2pRcU1/2 What will voters want now that there is a hung Dail? @TheSundayIndo/MB found a 2nd election most favoured (33%) pic.twitter.com/U8FkK2pRcU
Updated
at 11.08am GMT
9.59am GMT9.59am GMT
09:5909:59
Both of Ireland’s Coalition parties will be deeply disappointed by the results of last night’s exit poll from the Irish Time (and also with this morning’s one from RTE), writes the veteran Irish Times political commentator, Stephen Collins. Both of Ireland’s coalition parties will be deeply disappointed by the results of last night’s exit poll from the Irish Times (and also with this morning’s one from RTE), writes the veteran Irish Times political commentator, Stephen Collins.
He adds:He adds:
By contrast, Fianna Fáil has exceeded the expectations it had at the start of the campaign. Party leader Micheál Martin had the best campaign of any party leader and his message of fairness resonated with a wide swathe of the electorate.By contrast, Fianna Fáil has exceeded the expectations it had at the start of the campaign. Party leader Micheál Martin had the best campaign of any party leader and his message of fairness resonated with a wide swathe of the electorate.
That Fianna Fáil has narrowed the gap with Fine Gael to just over three percentage points just five years after the greatest disaster in the party’s history indicates how resilient it is.That Fianna Fáil has narrowed the gap with Fine Gael to just over three percentage points just five years after the greatest disaster in the party’s history indicates how resilient it is.
Updated
at 11.08am GMT
9.26am GMT9.26am GMT
09:2609:26
Henry McDonaldHenry McDonald
Some more analysis now of the backdrop to today’s results, courtesy of the Guardian’s Henry McDonald:Some more analysis now of the backdrop to today’s results, courtesy of the Guardian’s Henry McDonald:
The outgoing Fine Gael-Labour coalition was elected back in 2011 on a landslide with the biggest ever parliamentary majority since Ireland gained independence from Britain.The outgoing Fine Gael-Labour coalition was elected back in 2011 on a landslide with the biggest ever parliamentary majority since Ireland gained independence from Britain.
After three successive terms for Fianna Fail the Republic’s electorate appeared to have ushered in a political revolution five years ago. After three successive terms for Fianna Fáil, the Republic’s electorate appeared to have ushered in a political revolution five years ago.
Anger over the way Fianna Fail had been seen to mismanage the economy and lose economic sovereignty, resulted in Fine Gael returning with 76 seats while Labour came back into the Dail with 33. Anger over the way Fianna Fáil had been seen to mismanage the economy and lose economic sovereignty resulted in Fine Gael returning with 76 seats, while Labour came back into the Dáil with 33.
So how come five years on the two parties whose lead looked unassailable at the start of this government have failed so miserably to secure a second term?So how come five years on the two parties whose lead looked unassailable at the start of this government have failed so miserably to secure a second term?
Part of the reason lies in the unpleasant austerity medicine the Fine Gael-Labour coalition had to administer in the coalition’s early years.After the fiscal crash and the arrival of the International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank to macro-manage Irish economic affairs the cupboard was almost bare. Part of the reason lies in the austerity medicine administered by the Fine Gael-Labour coalition in its early years. After the financial crash and the arrival of the International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank to macro-manage Irish economic affairs, the cupboard was almost bare.
The new government had to plug a multi-billion euro gap in the nation’s finances and did so by raising taxes and cutting public spending. Like a certain female prime minister across the Irish Sea in the 1980s, Fine Gael might argue that the medicine worked and no matter how unpleasant to swallow has turned the economy around. The new government had to plug a multibillion euro gap in the nation’s finances, and did so by raising taxes and cutting public spending. Like a certain female prime minister across the Irish Sea in the 1980s, Fine Gael might argue that the medicine worked and no matter how unpleasant it was to swallow, it has turned the economy around.
Ireland is enjoying 7 per cent growth and more than 120,000 jobs have been created in the government’s lifetime. Many Irish voters however clearly thought that the treatment was not only too harsh - cuts, taxes, new water charges - but also unfair. Ireland is enjoying 7% growth and more than 120,000 jobs have been created in the government’s lifetime. However, many Irish voters clearly thought that the treatment was not only too harsh – cuts, taxes, new water charges – but also unfair.
They saw bankers blamed for over-borrowing to equally rapacious property speculators avoiding jail while those living on low incomes who could not or would pay for water charges being imprisoned. They saw the bankers blamed for over-borrowing and equally rapacious property speculators avoiding jail, while those living on low incomes who could not or would not pay for water charges being imprisoned.
For much of the electorate the distribution of the pain as Ireland bowed to IMF-ECB demands and drove down the national debt was loaded in the wrong direction. For much of the electorate, the distribution of the pain as Ireland bowed to IMF-ECB demands and drove down the national debt was loaded in the wrong direction.
Hence the huge and widely spread protest vote for a disparate range of parties from Sinn Fein to the far left to non-aligned local issue based independents. However, the greatest paradox of this election, if the two exit polls reflect the 1st preference voting patterns, is the comeback of Fianna Fail. Hence the widely spread protest vote for a disparate range of parties, including Sinn Féin, leftist groupings and non-aligned, local issue independents.
There’s going to be some short radio silence now while I locate to a good vantage point inside the RDS conference centre. Stay tuned... However, the greatest paradox of this election, if the two exit polls accurately reflect the first preference voting patterns, is the comeback of Fianna Fáil.
9.20am GMT There’s going to be a short period now of radio silence while I locate a good vantage point inside the RDS conference centre. Stay tuned …
09:20
New details are being released from RTE’s exit polling, this time providing some detail on how Irish voters are casting their second preference votes.
2nd prefs from RTE Exit Poll: FG 26.2 Lab 7.4 FF18.1 SF 10.2 AAA 5.5 Ren 2.5 SD 2.8 GP 3.5 Ind All 3.9 Ind 10.9 Oth 2.8 #ge16
A particular trend being noted by commentators is how Sinn Fein support in second preferences is significantly back on their support from first preferences, which had been 16%.
One takeaway? The party might yet be struggling to throw off a toxicity in the eyes of many voters in the Republic of Ireland after years of strife in Northern Ireland.
9.08am GMT
09:08
… and they’re off:
Boxes are open and counting has started!!! pic.twitter.com/UtH32klMNH
Boxes open here in Phibblestown for Dublin West. Hoping we have indication of results by 12 @IrishTimes pic.twitter.com/Y3HN3yIPpp
UpdatedUpdated
at 10.59am GMT at 11.05am GMT
8.54am GMT
08:54
Vote counters are preparing to open the first ballot boxes. Here are some of the scenes inside Dublin’s RDS conference centre, where a number of constituencies will be counted:
Padlocks coming off ballot boxes at RDS #GE16 pic.twitter.com/ixJeAwKWo2
Boxes ready to be opened in less than an hour at the RDS #ge16 @rtenews pic.twitter.com/Q6oAt5t0k5
Updated
at 10.59am GMT
8.50am GMT
08:50
Discussing the exit polls, someone on Irish radio has already mouthed that WB Yeats line: “A terrible beauty is born.”
We’ll see over the course of today (and tomorrow … and potentially next week …), but for now, a former government minister is among those suggesting that the previously unthinkable really might be on the cards
“It seems to me know that the only working arrangement is one between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael,” says Michael McDowell, a former justice minister and member of a now defunct right of centre party, the Progressive Democrats.
“If that is what is coming that is the international norm.”
Updated
at 10.59am GMT
8.43am GMT
08:43
More now on possible scenarios. If the exit polls are accurate, and with Ireland’s unpredictable PR election system based on multi-seat constituencies, a number of different outcomes are entirely possible.
Here’s the Guardian’s Ireland correspondent, Henry McDonald:
The entire election result is not over until the middle of next week. Irish elections are notorious for recounts, which, thanks to a Dublin supreme court ruling, are now enshrined in law, ie everyone has the constitutional right to demand one.
Scenario one
Scenario two
Updated
at 10.58am GMT
8.35am GMT
08:35
So what happens now? Well, much chatter is already focusing on the possibility of a grand coalition between Ireland’s two centrist, sometimes right of centre, christian democratic parties: Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.
Different figures from RTE but same result. FG-Lab coalition crushed. Rise of independents and a grand coalition/hung Dail. #GE16
Don’t be quick to assume that will happen though, for a range of reasons. Perhaps it may take a slightly different form:
FF supporting a minority FG government would be political suicide for a party emerging from intensive care. Coalition a different matter,
The prospect of Sinn Féin becoming the main opposition party is also likely to be a major brake on Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael burying their long-held differences.
If FG & FF form unity government, SF wld be v happy to become biggest opposition in Dail, a prospect which will give FG/FF pause for thought
… also, while ideological differences between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael may be wafer thin at the moment, there’s also the element good old-fashioned personal enmity … and trust.
Here’s an FG minister, Leo Varadkar, speaking to the Guardian recently on the question of historical differences dating back to Ireland’s civil war being buried:
It’s not about the civil war, the civil war is over a long time and I don’t particularly come from a traditional Fine Gael background.
It’s a mistake to think its still about the civil war because it’s actually about trust and we just don’t trust them [Fianna Fáil].
Updated
at 10.53am GMT
8.21am GMT
08:21
Here are the results of the exit poll from RTE, published this morning:
Updated
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8.05am GMT
08:05
So we have two major exit polls to work from for now. An MRBI poll for the Irish Times published on Friday night found :
Be warned however. The above is based on first preference votes cast using Ireland’s somewhat unusual voting process, a form of proportional representation known as the single transferable vote system. It might be complex, but if anything, it can generate drama of the highest order on a day like today.
For those coming fresh to this election, you might want to read this briefing by Henry McDonald:
Related: Ireland's general election – the Guardian briefing
Updated
at 10.51am GMT
7.57am GMT
07:57
Exit polls: coalition government support slumps
Henry McDonald
After waging a campaign for re-election on the basis of their stewardship of an economy shattered by an economic collapse, exit polls suggest that Ireland’s governing coalition has suffered a significant loss in support.
The Guardian’s Ireland correspondent, Henry McDonald, reports on how voters may be asked to return to the polls much sooner than expected:
Ireland may be facing a second general election as an exit poll from one of the country’s most reputed media organisations has found that the Fine Gael-Labour coalition has fallen far short of a working majority.
An Irish Times/MRBI exit poll released on Friday night found the ruling Fine Gael party is less than four percentage points ahead of the main opposition force, Fianna Fáil.
According to the results of the poll, taken among a sample of more than 5,000 voters outside 200 polling stations across the Republic on Friday, Fine Gael has 26.1% of first preference votes.
The exit poll shows a considerable gain for Fianna Fail, on 22.9%. Sinn Féin meanwhile has gained four percentage points from its 10% performance in the 2011 general election.
Labour – Fine Gael’s partners in government for the last five years – are on 7.8%, the exit poll suggests.
Updated
at 10.50am GMT
7.52am GMT
07:52
Opening summary
Hello and welcome to the Guardian’s liveblog on the outcome of Ireland’s general election from here in Dublin.
Already, early indications are that Ireland and Irish politics have entered uncharted territory with two major exit polls showing a major slump in support for the outgoing coalition partners - the larger right of centre party, Fine Gael, and its left of centre partner, Labour.
Gains have been made by made by Fianna Fáil, the party which had led the government at the time of Ireland’s 2008 economic crash and which has been rebuilding itself, as well as Sinn Féin, which has been hoping to make a major breakthrough in the Republic on the back of an anti-austerity platform.
However, the building blocks for a new government are scattered, with the country predicted to be heading for a hung parliament.
As with other recent elections, the big winners appear to be a collection of independents and smaller parties. That’s on the basis of two exit polls, one for the Irish Times and one for the state broadcaster RTE.
I’m Ben Quinn and I’ll be bringing you updates as results come in throughout the day from around the country. With me will be the Guardian’s Ireland correspondent, Henry McDonald, who will be filing reports and analysis. You can follow us on Twitter at @BenQuinn75 and @henry_mcdonald.
Updated
at 8.23am GMT