This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/feb/27/ireland-general-election-exit-poll-coalition-fine-gael

The article has changed 25 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 22 Version 23
Ireland general election: second vote possible after inconclusive result – live Ireland general election: Irish PM admits his coalition has been rejected – live
(35 minutes later)
9.22pm GMT
21:22
Kenny: Re-forming current coalition not possible
Ben Quinn
Taoiseach Enda Kenny has conceded that the option of re-forming Ireland’s coalition government of his party, Fine Gael, and the Irish Labour Party, is no longer available.
Speaking in the last 20 minutes from his own western constituency of Mayo, Kenny was evasive when repeatedly pressed on whether he would not consider entering into coalition with his party’s historic rival, Fianna Fail. Commentators increasingly believe that ‘Grand Coalition’ of the two is the only viable option now after a fractured election result.
“Clearly, my preference of Fine Gael and Labour cannot now be returned so obviously arising form that you have to look at all the counts …. to see what grouping and what parties are there,” he said in an interview with the Irish state broadcaster, RTE.
9.12pm GMT
21:12
Sinn Fein now appears to be heading for its best-ever result in the Republic of Ireland, with a solid third-place finish, although it’s a performance that’s not without its disappointments for the party.
In the five-seat north west constituency of Donegal, an ambitious strategy of seeking to have three members of the Dail (Parliament) elected appears to have failed. The party has been fending off suggestions that the strategy could now even backfire at the cost of one of its existing seats there.
Updated
at 9.15pm GMT
8.52pm GMT8.52pm GMT
20:5220:52
There’s intense pressure on Enda Kenny to indicate his thoughts on a possible link-up now between his party, Fine Gael, and Fianna Fail.There’s intense pressure on Enda Kenny to indicate his thoughts on a possible link-up now between his party, Fine Gael, and Fianna Fail.
This response, tweeted by UTV Ireland’s Yvonne Redmond, doesn’t exactly rule out such an outcome:This response, tweeted by UTV Ireland’s Yvonne Redmond, doesn’t exactly rule out such an outcome:
Enda Kenny on possible FF alliance - "I'm not going to comment on any options, it's far too early to say" @IrelandLiveEnda Kenny on possible FF alliance - "I'm not going to comment on any options, it's far too early to say" @IrelandLive
There’s also this:
Enda Kenny "has a duty and a responsibility to work with the decision the people have made, to provide a stable government"... #ge16
Updated
at 8.56pm GMT
8.40pm GMT8.40pm GMT
20:4020:40
Ireland’s Taoiseach and leader of the Fine Gael Party, Enda Kenny, has been re-elected in his west coast Mayo constituency.Ireland’s Taoiseach and leader of the Fine Gael Party, Enda Kenny, has been re-elected in his west coast Mayo constituency.
Kenny topped the poll with 13,318 votes, although it was down from the 17,472 first preference votes he received in 2011, a drop of over 4,000.Kenny topped the poll with 13,318 votes, although it was down from the 17,472 first preference votes he received in 2011, a drop of over 4,000.
However, he now faces major decisions. After presiding over heavy losses for his party (many believe that they would have been averted if he had called the election in November) there may be pressure on him to make way for another face..However, he now faces major decisions. After presiding over heavy losses for his party (many believe that they would have been averted if he had called the election in November) there may be pressure on him to make way for another face..
There are hints that we may be hearing from him in the next hour, perhaps to coincide with Ireland’s main evening nine o’clock news bulletin.There are hints that we may be hearing from him in the next hour, perhaps to coincide with Ireland’s main evening nine o’clock news bulletin.
A couple of different images of him arriving at the count earlier are around, including this one:A couple of different images of him arriving at the count earlier are around, including this one:
Taoiseach Enda Kenny arriving at the count centre in Castlebar #GE16 pic.twitter.com/anQN0Gq9cKTaoiseach Enda Kenny arriving at the count centre in Castlebar #GE16 pic.twitter.com/anQN0Gq9cK
.. and a close-up.. and a close-up
Enda Kenny seen arriving at the Mayo count #GE16 pic.twitter.com/QIVPNOqOR6Enda Kenny seen arriving at the Mayo count #GE16 pic.twitter.com/QIVPNOqOR6
UpdatedUpdated
at 8.45pm GMTat 8.45pm GMT
8.34pm GMT8.34pm GMT
20:3420:34
In other sub-plots, Ireland continues to be a cold place for the Far Right.In other sub-plots, Ireland continues to be a cold place for the Far Right.
A candidate from an anti-immigrant group calling itself Identity Ireland, who has been involved in launching an Irish offshoot of the Pegida movement, got less than 200 first preference votesA candidate from an anti-immigrant group calling itself Identity Ireland, who has been involved in launching an Irish offshoot of the Pegida movement, got less than 200 first preference votes
Identity Ireland polled really badly in Irish elections. They're the Irish fascists who call themselves PegidaIdentity Ireland polled really badly in Irish elections. They're the Irish fascists who call themselves Pegida
8.27pm GMT8.27pm GMT
20:2720:27
As well as Fianna Fail’s own recovery, Ireland’s Green Party has been staging a mini comeback.As well as Fianna Fail’s own recovery, Ireland’s Green Party has been staging a mini comeback.
After losing all its TDs in 2011, when it took a major hit as the junior partners in the government which was led by Fianna Fail, its deputy leader Catherine Martin has now been elected in the constituency of Dublin Rathdown.After losing all its TDs in 2011, when it took a major hit as the junior partners in the government which was led by Fianna Fail, its deputy leader Catherine Martin has now been elected in the constituency of Dublin Rathdown.
First Green TD elected at #GE16 - good news for #Ireland's anti-#fracking campaign, as Greens 100% opposed! https://t.co/b8W2vbwpcSFirst Green TD elected at #GE16 - good news for #Ireland's anti-#fracking campaign, as Greens 100% opposed! https://t.co/b8W2vbwpcS
8.21pm GMT8.21pm GMT
20:2120:21
An interesting figure in the crowd at the counting centre for Dublin constituencies - the British ambassador.An interesting figure in the crowd at the counting centre for Dublin constituencies - the British ambassador.
Increasingly, it appears that the British government has lost perhaps its closest ally in the European Union, Taoiseach Enda Kenny.Increasingly, it appears that the British government has lost perhaps its closest ally in the European Union, Taoiseach Enda Kenny.
British ambassador Dominick Chilcott listens to Dublin Bay South first round results at Dublin Count Centre. #Ge16 pic.twitter.com/0KNT62vBjaBritish ambassador Dominick Chilcott listens to Dublin Bay South first round results at Dublin Count Centre. #Ge16 pic.twitter.com/0KNT62vBja
8.17pm GMT8.17pm GMT
20:1720:17
Ireland’s health minister has strongly hinted that the best course of action for his party, Fine Gael, may now to go into opposition:Ireland’s health minister has strongly hinted that the best course of action for his party, Fine Gael, may now to go into opposition:
Leo Varadkar told RTE, the state broadcaster, that the coalition’s larger partner may not even end up as the largest party in the country. If so, that spot would likely be taken by Fianna Fail, which has undertaken an extraordinary comeback after five years in the political wilderness.Leo Varadkar told RTE, the state broadcaster, that the coalition’s larger partner may not even end up as the largest party in the country. If so, that spot would likely be taken by Fianna Fail, which has undertaken an extraordinary comeback after five years in the political wilderness.
He said:He said:
It’s going to be difficult to form a government. It’s not entirely clear if Fine Gael will emerge as the largest party in terms of seats.... I don’t necessarily think that the obligation to form a government falls on us.It’s going to be difficult to form a government. It’s not entirely clear if Fine Gael will emerge as the largest party in terms of seats.... I don’t necessarily think that the obligation to form a government falls on us.
Asked if Fine Gael should now be prepared to think the previously unthinkable – going into coalition with its historic rival, Fianna Fail – he replied:Asked if Fine Gael should now be prepared to think the previously unthinkable – going into coalition with its historic rival, Fianna Fail – he replied:
What happens now is that we have to count the votes and see what the possibilities are.What happens now is that we have to count the votes and see what the possibilities are.
UpdatedUpdated
at 8.18pm GMTat 8.18pm GMT
8.11pm GMT8.11pm GMT
20:1120:11
Ireland’s governing coalition has suffered perhaps its biggest casualy of the day so far now, with the loss of the seat held by Fine Gael MP Alan Shatter, the former Justice Minister.Ireland’s governing coalition has suffered perhaps its biggest casualy of the day so far now, with the loss of the seat held by Fine Gael MP Alan Shatter, the former Justice Minister.
The Guardian’s Henry McDonald reports:The Guardian’s Henry McDonald reports:
The Irish headline writers will no doubt be using the word SHATTERED when referring the loss of a Fine Gael seat in one of its most prosperous redoubts - Dublin Rathdown.The Irish headline writers will no doubt be using the word SHATTERED when referring the loss of a Fine Gael seat in one of its most prosperous redoubts - Dublin Rathdown.
They will be referring of course to Alan Shatter, former Fine Gael Justice Minister for a time in the last government, who has lost his seat in the constituency.They will be referring of course to Alan Shatter, former Fine Gael Justice Minister for a time in the last government, who has lost his seat in the constituency.
If there was ever an iconic loss in this very bad election for Fine Gael it is the failure of Shatter to get re-elected to the Dail. He lost his seat to the Green Party which is heading back to the Dail having reduced to zero seats in the 2011 election.If there was ever an iconic loss in this very bad election for Fine Gael it is the failure of Shatter to get re-elected to the Dail. He lost his seat to the Green Party which is heading back to the Dail having reduced to zero seats in the 2011 election.
7.38pm GMT7.38pm GMT
19:3819:38
The Irish Taoiseach’s closest adviser has said Ireland would have to review its “political system” once the outcome of its most uncertain election in recent times is decided.The Irish Taoiseach’s closest adviser has said Ireland would have to review its “political system” once the outcome of its most uncertain election in recent times is decided.
Admitting that the chance of another general election was “now very, very high,” Mark Mortell said:Admitting that the chance of another general election was “now very, very high,” Mark Mortell said:
The only word I can use right now is deep disappointment.The only word I can use right now is deep disappointment.
Asked about the prospect of an historic grand coalition between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael , he told the Press Association:Asked about the prospect of an historic grand coalition between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael , he told the Press Association:
We’re each going to have to consider the situation and we’re going to have to talk to the Labour Party too.We’re each going to have to consider the situation and we’re going to have to talk to the Labour Party too.
What you’ve got here is an extraordinary situation. It is a massive fracturing of the political system.What you’ve got here is an extraordinary situation. It is a massive fracturing of the political system.
It creates immediately a huge amount of volatility and if you look just across into Europe, and what’s happened in Spain and Portugal, this does mean we’re going to have a very, very interesting couple of weeks ahead of us and very, very demanding ones.It creates immediately a huge amount of volatility and if you look just across into Europe, and what’s happened in Spain and Portugal, this does mean we’re going to have a very, very interesting couple of weeks ahead of us and very, very demanding ones.
7.31pm GMT7.31pm GMT
19:3119:31
Philip OltermannPhilip Oltermann
Amid talk of an Irish “grand coalition” between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, here’s some insight into the practice in Germany, where such arrangements are nothing new. Philip Oltermann, the Guardian’s Berlin Bureay Chief, writes:Amid talk of an Irish “grand coalition” between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, here’s some insight into the practice in Germany, where such arrangements are nothing new. Philip Oltermann, the Guardian’s Berlin Bureay Chief, writes:
There have been three grosse Koalitionen between the conservative Christian Democrats and centre-left Social Democrats at national level: 1966-1999, 2005-2009, and the current government, led by Angela Merkel, with the SPD leader Sigmar Gabriel as her deputy.There have been three grosse Koalitionen between the conservative Christian Democrats and centre-left Social Democrats at national level: 1966-1999, 2005-2009, and the current government, led by Angela Merkel, with the SPD leader Sigmar Gabriel as her deputy.
The problems with this kind of arrangement may be more apparent than the advantages: with a broad political consensus in the political centre, parliamentary debate is often stifled, opposition made toothless.The problems with this kind of arrangement may be more apparent than the advantages: with a broad political consensus in the political centre, parliamentary debate is often stifled, opposition made toothless.
In Germany, this is particularly problematic for the left, which often has a mathematical majority of votes shared between the SPD, the Left Party and the Greens, but cannot make that majority count since the Social Democrats are hamstrung by their coalition treaty with the CDU.In Germany, this is particularly problematic for the left, which often has a mathematical majority of votes shared between the SPD, the Left Party and the Greens, but cannot make that majority count since the Social Democrats are hamstrung by their coalition treaty with the CDU.
The legalisation of gay marriage, effectively put on hold via the two parties’ coalition agreement, is just one area where a “grand coalition” can result in political stasis.The legalisation of gay marriage, effectively put on hold via the two parties’ coalition agreement, is just one area where a “grand coalition” can result in political stasis.
Yet at times of global turmoil grand coalitions can also be popular. After the 2013 general election in Germany, a sizeable majority in the polls said a coalition between the SPD and the CDU was their favourable outcome, and until the refugee crisis knocked the government’s boat in the last few months, ratings for the two governing parties were remarkably stable.Yet at times of global turmoil grand coalitions can also be popular. After the 2013 general election in Germany, a sizeable majority in the polls said a coalition between the SPD and the CDU was their favourable outcome, and until the refugee crisis knocked the government’s boat in the last few months, ratings for the two governing parties were remarkably stable.
7.23pm GMT
19:23
Henry McDonald
In Ireland you can be accused by high-powered public tribunals of corruption and using your ministerial influence to help rich, powerful friends but can still be re-elected to the national parliament.
Michael Lowry, the former Fine Gael communications minister, was accused in 20l 1 by a tribunal of providing “imparted substantive information” to Ireland’s richest man, Denis O’Brien, now the chief shareholder of Independent News and Media.
This information, the tribunal concluded, was of “significant value and assistance” to O’Brien in securing a state mobile-phone licence.
Fine Gael barred him from standing in his Tipperary base as a result. But tonight Lowry arrived at the count in his native county to a hero’s welcome and the guarantee that he will top the poll once more in this election.
More of .@michael_lowry arrival at #tipperary count centre where tallies suggest he's topped the poll #ge16 pic.twitter.com/AcNlaDexOB
7.20pm GMT
19:20
There’s been an outbreak of prolonged singing at the Dublin count centre, where Sinn Fein’s vice president Mary Lou McDonald is now within touching distance of being relected.
Aaron Murtagh captured it earlier.
Pretty clear message from Sinn Féin supporters there. They love Mary Lou McDonald #GE16 pic.twitter.com/VEwBDyNxqG
7.17pm GMT
19:17
A taste of the new Irish politics to come? The airwaves are buzzing over claims that a candidate for Fine Gael recently called on voters to give their second preference votes to a Fianna Fail candidate.
Niche-sounding stuff when looked at from outside of Ireland, but it’s potentially very significant. It suggests that key figures in both parties - which have their origins in opposing sides in Ireland’s Civil War - had already started to bury the hatchet (or perhaps Lee Enfield).
Fionnan Sheahan, editor of the Irish Independent, is among those picking up on that:
FG Coonan's call for Roscrea transfers to FF Smith was also heard by other candidates in Tipp.
7.04pm GMT
19:04
Gerry Adams appeared to signal that Sinn Fein may be more flexible about entering a coalition than the party’s current position.
Party policy is not to enter an administration with Fianna Fail. However, The Guardian’s Henry McDonald reports that Adams said his party would have to examine the “lay of the land” once all the votes have been counted.
On his way into the Louth count where he is expected to top the poll Adams said his party policy was one he “happened to agree with.”
However the Sinn Fein President added:
If we do have a proposition to go into government we will go to our Ard Fheis (annual conference) and they will make that decision.
Given that the numbers of far left, Social Democrats and Independents combined with Sinn Fein wouldn’t be enough to elect an alternative government the party’s only possible partners would be Fianna Fail.
Fiach Kelly, political correspondent at the Irish Independent, tweets meanwhile:
Sinn Fein just dying for the Grand Coalition to happen. #GE16 https://t.co/Hk4WK9iQnh
7.01pm GMT
19:01
Senior strategists in Fianna Fail, which appears to have staged an extraordinary recovery after being electorally decimated n 2011 over its stewardship of Ireland’s crisis-hit economy, believe they are close to edging out Taoiseach Enda Kenny’s Fine Gael as the largest party.
That’s according to Harry McGee, political correspondent at the Irish Times, who writes in the Irish Times that the party has increased its own estimates of seat gains since Saturday morning to above 40.
Under Ireland’s system of voting, which sees candidates being ranked in order of preference, the party is expected to get a seat bounce later today from being likely to pick up transferred votes from independent candidates who are eliminated in counting.
Updated
at 7.06pm GMT
6.52pm GMT
18:52
In a European context, the Irish election results suggest that austerity “isn’t working”, according to journalist Peter Geoghegan, who has written an interesting piece for Politico Europe.
Barely a week has passed in the international press without Ireland seemingly being described as the “poster child for austerity in Europe,” with growth last year of 7 percent and falling unemployment appearing to put it in a different category from other stricken Eurozone states such as Greece and Portugal.
Geoghegan adds however:
But many Irish people have not felt any of the recovery’s effects. The exit polls Friday suggested more than a quarter felt their personal finances had deteriorated over the past year, with almost half saying their finances had stayed the same.
Parties opposed to austerity, explicitly or implicitly, have done very well. Despite effectively bankrupting the country during a decade and a half in power, Fianna Fail’s message of a more balanced recovery struck a chord with voters.
On the left, Sinn Fein recorded its best ever performance in the modern era; the newly-minted Social Democrats are on course to win at least half a dozen seats and the Greens and the cumbersomely titled socialist composite Anti-Austerity Alliance—People Before Profit look set to make gains.
6.35pm GMT
18:35
Henry McDonald
Fianna Fail are increasingly confident tonight they might exceed five seats in Dublin with a possibility of even seven party TDs being elected in the Irish capital.
A party spokesperson said they are confident of five seats in Dublin Bay North, Dublin Mid West, Fingal, Dublin South West and Dublin West.
They are also pinning their hopes on extra gains in Dublin Bay South and Dublin Central, she added.
Reaching seven seats in Dublin is a sure sign of their turn in fortunes given that they gained only one seat in the 2011 meltdown Fianna Fail suffered post the Celtic Tiger.
6.33pm GMT
18:33
Summary
Ben Quinn
• Ireland’s general election was on course on Saturday to produce a hung parliament after voters punished the coalition government which has implemented an austerity-heavy set of policies over the past five years.Fine Gael, the main party in the outgoing coalition, looked set to lose up to 20 seats as voters wreaked revenge on its coalition government with Labour that brought in austerity measures.
• The prospect of a “grand coalition” between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael – the two ostensibly christian democratic parties which have taken turns to lead successive Irish governments since independence – appears to be on the cards.The leader of Fianna Fail, which surprised pundits by staging a recovery after voters punished it in 2011 after Ireland’s crash, said that his party would be “practical” and that it was essential to form a government that was “coherent”.
• Sinn Fein was on course to continue its march in the Republic of Ireland, with an expected increase in its representation in the Dublin parliament, the Dail, by around 50%. However, the party looked set to miss out on key targets it had set for itself in some constituencies due to the apparent reluctance of many voters to give their second preference votes to the party that was once umbilically linked to the IRA.
• The former Labour leader Eamon Gilmore has said that the heavy losses now being suffered by the party are a consequence of necessary but unpopular decisions which it had to make after going into coalition five years ago.However, the results also suggested firm evidence of leftward turn on the part of record numbers of the electorate who were opting for a range of left of centre candidates.
6.11pm GMT
18:11
Of course, away from the potential settling of age-old enmities arising from the legacy Ireland’s Civil War politics, the latest chapter in another age-old battle is being fought.
You can follow the latest from Ireland’s clash with England in the Six Nations here. It’s also bringing Ireland’s disparate political tribes together at count centres meanwhile.
In Dublin, a tannoy announcer has been updating us on the game’s score in between election results: “10-9 at Twickenham”
The #IREvENG match seems to have taken some of the attention away from the count here at the RDS #GE16 pic.twitter.com/yjNCrqU1rv
6.04pm GMT
18:04
A few more snapshots of action from constituencies around the country
• Roisin Shortall, a former Labour minister who became one of the co-founders of the Social Democrats, a new left wing party, has been elected in the constituency of Dublin North West.
• The Labour Party’s woes were underlined when Alex White, communications minister in the coalition government, lost the race to hold his own Dublin seat.
• Leo Varadkar, tipped as a potential future leader of Fine Gael, has topped the poll in the constituency of Dublin West and was on course for re-election.