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| Ireland general election: second vote possible after inconclusive result – live | Ireland general election: second vote possible after inconclusive result – live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 8.17pm GMT | |
| 20:17 | |
| Ireland’s health minister has strongly hinted that the best course of action for his party, Fine Gael, may now to go into opposition: | |
| Leo Varadkar told RTE, the state broadcaster, that the coalition’s larger partner may not even end up as the largest party in the country. If so, that spot would likely be taken by Fianna Fail, which has undertaken an extraordinary comeback after five years in the political wilderness. | |
| He said: | |
| It’s going to be difficult to form a government. It’s not entirely clear if Fine Gael will emerge as the largest party in terms of seats.... I don’t necessarily think that the obligation to form a government falls on us. | |
| Asked if Fine Gael should now be prepared to think the previously unthinkable – going into coalition with its historic rival, Fianna Fail – he replied: | |
| What happens now is that we have to count the votes and see what the possibilities are. | |
| Updated | |
| at 8.18pm GMT | |
| 8.11pm GMT | |
| 20:11 | |
| Ireland’s governing coalition has suffered perhaps its biggest casualy of the day so far now, with the loss of the seat held by Fine Gael MP Alan Shatter, the former Justice Minister. | |
| The Guardian’s Henry McDonald reports: | |
| The Irish headline writers will no doubt be using the word SHATTERED when referring the loss of a Fine Gael seat in one of its most prosperous redoubts - Dublin Rathdown. | |
| They will be referring of course to Alan Shatter, former Fine Gael Justice Minister for a time in the last government, who has lost his seat in the constituency. | |
| If there was ever an iconic loss in this very bad election for Fine Gael it is the failure of Shatter to get re-elected to the Dail. He lost his seat to the Green Party which is heading back to the Dail having reduced to zero seats in the 2011 election. | |
| 7.38pm GMT | 7.38pm GMT |
| 19:38 | 19:38 |
| The Irish Taoiseach’s closest adviser has said Ireland would have to review its “political system” once the outcome of its most uncertain election in recent times is decided. | The Irish Taoiseach’s closest adviser has said Ireland would have to review its “political system” once the outcome of its most uncertain election in recent times is decided. |
| Admitting that the chance of another general election was “now very, very high,” Mark Mortell said: | Admitting that the chance of another general election was “now very, very high,” Mark Mortell said: |
| The only word I can use right now is deep disappointment. | The only word I can use right now is deep disappointment. |
| Asked about the prospect of an historic grand coalition between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael , he told the Press Association: | Asked about the prospect of an historic grand coalition between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael , he told the Press Association: |
| We’re each going to have to consider the situation and we’re going to have to talk to the Labour Party too. | We’re each going to have to consider the situation and we’re going to have to talk to the Labour Party too. |
| What you’ve got here is an extraordinary situation. It is a massive fracturing of the political system. | What you’ve got here is an extraordinary situation. It is a massive fracturing of the political system. |
| It creates immediately a huge amount of volatility and if you look just across into Europe, and what’s happened in Spain and Portugal, this does mean we’re going to have a very, very interesting couple of weeks ahead of us and very, very demanding ones. | It creates immediately a huge amount of volatility and if you look just across into Europe, and what’s happened in Spain and Portugal, this does mean we’re going to have a very, very interesting couple of weeks ahead of us and very, very demanding ones. |
| 7.31pm GMT | 7.31pm GMT |
| 19:31 | 19:31 |
| Philip Oltermann | Philip Oltermann |
| Amid talk of an Irish “grand coalition” between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, here’s some insight into the practice in Germany, where such arrangements are nothing new. Philip Oltermann, the Guardian’s Berlin Bureay Chief, writes: | Amid talk of an Irish “grand coalition” between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, here’s some insight into the practice in Germany, where such arrangements are nothing new. Philip Oltermann, the Guardian’s Berlin Bureay Chief, writes: |
| There have been three grosse Koalitionen between the conservative Christian Democrats and centre-left Social Democrats at national level: 1966-1999, 2005-2009, and the current government, led by Angela Merkel, with the SPD leader Sigmar Gabriel as her deputy. | There have been three grosse Koalitionen between the conservative Christian Democrats and centre-left Social Democrats at national level: 1966-1999, 2005-2009, and the current government, led by Angela Merkel, with the SPD leader Sigmar Gabriel as her deputy. |
| The problems with this kind of arrangement may be more apparent than the advantages: with a broad political consensus in the political centre, parliamentary debate is often stifled, opposition made toothless. | The problems with this kind of arrangement may be more apparent than the advantages: with a broad political consensus in the political centre, parliamentary debate is often stifled, opposition made toothless. |
| In Germany, this is particularly problematic for the left, which often has a mathematical majority of votes shared between the SPD, the Left Party and the Greens, but cannot make that majority count since the Social Democrats are hamstrung by their coalition treaty with the CDU. | In Germany, this is particularly problematic for the left, which often has a mathematical majority of votes shared between the SPD, the Left Party and the Greens, but cannot make that majority count since the Social Democrats are hamstrung by their coalition treaty with the CDU. |
| The legalisation of gay marriage, effectively put on hold via the two parties’ coalition agreement, is just one area where a “grand coalition” can result in political stasis. | The legalisation of gay marriage, effectively put on hold via the two parties’ coalition agreement, is just one area where a “grand coalition” can result in political stasis. |
| Yet at times of global turmoil grand coalitions can also be popular. After the 2013 general election in Germany, a sizeable majority in the polls said a coalition between the SPD and the CDU was their favourable outcome, and until the refugee crisis knocked the government’s boat in the last few months, ratings for the two governing parties were remarkably stable. | Yet at times of global turmoil grand coalitions can also be popular. After the 2013 general election in Germany, a sizeable majority in the polls said a coalition between the SPD and the CDU was their favourable outcome, and until the refugee crisis knocked the government’s boat in the last few months, ratings for the two governing parties were remarkably stable. |
| 7.23pm GMT | 7.23pm GMT |
| 19:23 | 19:23 |
| Henry McDonald | Henry McDonald |
| In Ireland you can be accused by high-powered public tribunals of corruption and using your ministerial influence to help rich, powerful friends but can still be re-elected to the national parliament. | In Ireland you can be accused by high-powered public tribunals of corruption and using your ministerial influence to help rich, powerful friends but can still be re-elected to the national parliament. |
| Michael Lowry, the former Fine Gael communications minister, was accused in 20l 1 by a tribunal of providing “imparted substantive information” to Ireland’s richest man, Denis O’Brien, now the chief shareholder of Independent News and Media. | Michael Lowry, the former Fine Gael communications minister, was accused in 20l 1 by a tribunal of providing “imparted substantive information” to Ireland’s richest man, Denis O’Brien, now the chief shareholder of Independent News and Media. |
| This information, the tribunal concluded, was of “significant value and assistance” to O’Brien in securing a state mobile-phone licence. | This information, the tribunal concluded, was of “significant value and assistance” to O’Brien in securing a state mobile-phone licence. |
| Fine Gael barred him from standing in his Tipperary base as a result. But tonight Lowry arrived at the count in his native county to a hero’s welcome and the guarantee that he will top the poll once more in this election. | Fine Gael barred him from standing in his Tipperary base as a result. But tonight Lowry arrived at the count in his native county to a hero’s welcome and the guarantee that he will top the poll once more in this election. |
| More of .@michael_lowry arrival at #tipperary count centre where tallies suggest he's topped the poll #ge16 pic.twitter.com/AcNlaDexOB | More of .@michael_lowry arrival at #tipperary count centre where tallies suggest he's topped the poll #ge16 pic.twitter.com/AcNlaDexOB |
| 7.20pm GMT | 7.20pm GMT |
| 19:20 | 19:20 |
| There’s been an outbreak of prolonged singing at the Dublin count centre, where Sinn Fein’s vice president Mary Lou McDonald is now within touching distance of being relected. | There’s been an outbreak of prolonged singing at the Dublin count centre, where Sinn Fein’s vice president Mary Lou McDonald is now within touching distance of being relected. |
| Aaron Murtagh captured it earlier. | Aaron Murtagh captured it earlier. |
| Pretty clear message from Sinn Féin supporters there. They love Mary Lou McDonald #GE16 pic.twitter.com/VEwBDyNxqG | Pretty clear message from Sinn Féin supporters there. They love Mary Lou McDonald #GE16 pic.twitter.com/VEwBDyNxqG |
| 7.17pm GMT | 7.17pm GMT |
| 19:17 | 19:17 |
| A taste of the new Irish politics to come? The airwaves are buzzing over claims that a candidate for Fine Gael recently called on voters to give their second preference votes to a Fianna Fail candidate. | A taste of the new Irish politics to come? The airwaves are buzzing over claims that a candidate for Fine Gael recently called on voters to give their second preference votes to a Fianna Fail candidate. |
| Niche-sounding stuff when looked at from outside of Ireland, but it’s potentially very significant. It suggests that key figures in both parties - which have their origins in opposing sides in Ireland’s Civil War - had already started to bury the hatchet (or perhaps Lee Enfield). | Niche-sounding stuff when looked at from outside of Ireland, but it’s potentially very significant. It suggests that key figures in both parties - which have their origins in opposing sides in Ireland’s Civil War - had already started to bury the hatchet (or perhaps Lee Enfield). |
| Fionnan Sheahan, editor of the Irish Independent, is among those picking up on that: | Fionnan Sheahan, editor of the Irish Independent, is among those picking up on that: |
| FG Coonan's call for Roscrea transfers to FF Smith was also heard by other candidates in Tipp. | FG Coonan's call for Roscrea transfers to FF Smith was also heard by other candidates in Tipp. |
| 7.04pm GMT | 7.04pm GMT |
| 19:04 | 19:04 |
| Gerry Adams appeared to signal that Sinn Fein may be more flexible about entering a coalition than the party’s current position. | Gerry Adams appeared to signal that Sinn Fein may be more flexible about entering a coalition than the party’s current position. |
| Party policy is not to enter an administration with Fianna Fail. However, The Guardian’s Henry McDonald reports that Adams said his party would have to examine the “lay of the land” once all the votes have been counted. | Party policy is not to enter an administration with Fianna Fail. However, The Guardian’s Henry McDonald reports that Adams said his party would have to examine the “lay of the land” once all the votes have been counted. |
| On his way into the Louth count where he is expected to top the poll Adams said his party policy was one he “happened to agree with.” | On his way into the Louth count where he is expected to top the poll Adams said his party policy was one he “happened to agree with.” |
| However the Sinn Fein President added: | However the Sinn Fein President added: |
| If we do have a proposition to go into government we will go to our Ard Fheis (annual conference) and they will make that decision. | If we do have a proposition to go into government we will go to our Ard Fheis (annual conference) and they will make that decision. |
| Given that the numbers of far left, Social Democrats and Independents combined with Sinn Fein wouldn’t be enough to elect an alternative government the party’s only possible partners would be Fianna Fail. | Given that the numbers of far left, Social Democrats and Independents combined with Sinn Fein wouldn’t be enough to elect an alternative government the party’s only possible partners would be Fianna Fail. |
| Fiach Kelly, political correspondent at the Irish Independent, tweets meanwhile: | Fiach Kelly, political correspondent at the Irish Independent, tweets meanwhile: |
| Sinn Fein just dying for the Grand Coalition to happen. #GE16 https://t.co/Hk4WK9iQnh | Sinn Fein just dying for the Grand Coalition to happen. #GE16 https://t.co/Hk4WK9iQnh |
| 7.01pm GMT | 7.01pm GMT |
| 19:01 | 19:01 |
| Senior strategists in Fianna Fail, which appears to have staged an extraordinary recovery after being electorally decimated n 2011 over its stewardship of Ireland’s crisis-hit economy, believe they are close to edging out Taoiseach Enda Kenny’s Fine Gael as the largest party. | Senior strategists in Fianna Fail, which appears to have staged an extraordinary recovery after being electorally decimated n 2011 over its stewardship of Ireland’s crisis-hit economy, believe they are close to edging out Taoiseach Enda Kenny’s Fine Gael as the largest party. |
| That’s according to Harry McGee, political correspondent at the Irish Times, who writes in the Irish Times that the party has increased its own estimates of seat gains since Saturday morning to above 40. | That’s according to Harry McGee, political correspondent at the Irish Times, who writes in the Irish Times that the party has increased its own estimates of seat gains since Saturday morning to above 40. |
| Under Ireland’s system of voting, which sees candidates being ranked in order of preference, the party is expected to get a seat bounce later today from being likely to pick up transferred votes from independent candidates who are eliminated in counting. | Under Ireland’s system of voting, which sees candidates being ranked in order of preference, the party is expected to get a seat bounce later today from being likely to pick up transferred votes from independent candidates who are eliminated in counting. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 7.06pm GMT | at 7.06pm GMT |
| 6.52pm GMT | 6.52pm GMT |
| 18:52 | 18:52 |
| In a European context, the Irish election results suggest that austerity “isn’t working”, according to journalist Peter Geoghegan, who has written an interesting piece for Politico Europe. | In a European context, the Irish election results suggest that austerity “isn’t working”, according to journalist Peter Geoghegan, who has written an interesting piece for Politico Europe. |
| Barely a week has passed in the international press without Ireland seemingly being described as the “poster child for austerity in Europe,” with growth last year of 7 percent and falling unemployment appearing to put it in a different category from other stricken Eurozone states such as Greece and Portugal. | Barely a week has passed in the international press without Ireland seemingly being described as the “poster child for austerity in Europe,” with growth last year of 7 percent and falling unemployment appearing to put it in a different category from other stricken Eurozone states such as Greece and Portugal. |
| Geoghegan adds however: | Geoghegan adds however: |
| But many Irish people have not felt any of the recovery’s effects. The exit polls Friday suggested more than a quarter felt their personal finances had deteriorated over the past year, with almost half saying their finances had stayed the same. | But many Irish people have not felt any of the recovery’s effects. The exit polls Friday suggested more than a quarter felt their personal finances had deteriorated over the past year, with almost half saying their finances had stayed the same. |
| Parties opposed to austerity, explicitly or implicitly, have done very well. Despite effectively bankrupting the country during a decade and a half in power, Fianna Fail’s message of a more balanced recovery struck a chord with voters. | Parties opposed to austerity, explicitly or implicitly, have done very well. Despite effectively bankrupting the country during a decade and a half in power, Fianna Fail’s message of a more balanced recovery struck a chord with voters. |
| On the left, Sinn Fein recorded its best ever performance in the modern era; the newly-minted Social Democrats are on course to win at least half a dozen seats and the Greens and the cumbersomely titled socialist composite Anti-Austerity Alliance—People Before Profit look set to make gains. | On the left, Sinn Fein recorded its best ever performance in the modern era; the newly-minted Social Democrats are on course to win at least half a dozen seats and the Greens and the cumbersomely titled socialist composite Anti-Austerity Alliance—People Before Profit look set to make gains. |
| 6.35pm GMT | 6.35pm GMT |
| 18:35 | 18:35 |
| Henry McDonald | Henry McDonald |
| Fianna Fail are increasingly confident tonight they might exceed five seats in Dublin with a possibility of even seven party TDs being elected in the Irish capital. | Fianna Fail are increasingly confident tonight they might exceed five seats in Dublin with a possibility of even seven party TDs being elected in the Irish capital. |
| A party spokesperson said they are confident of five seats in Dublin Bay North, Dublin Mid West, Fingal, Dublin South West and Dublin West. | A party spokesperson said they are confident of five seats in Dublin Bay North, Dublin Mid West, Fingal, Dublin South West and Dublin West. |
| They are also pinning their hopes on extra gains in Dublin Bay South and Dublin Central, she added. | They are also pinning their hopes on extra gains in Dublin Bay South and Dublin Central, she added. |
| Reaching seven seats in Dublin is a sure sign of their turn in fortunes given that they gained only one seat in the 2011 meltdown Fianna Fail suffered post the Celtic Tiger. | Reaching seven seats in Dublin is a sure sign of their turn in fortunes given that they gained only one seat in the 2011 meltdown Fianna Fail suffered post the Celtic Tiger. |
| 6.33pm GMT | 6.33pm GMT |
| 18:33 | 18:33 |
| Summary | Summary |
| Ben Quinn | Ben Quinn |
| • Ireland’s general election was on course on Saturday to produce a hung parliament after voters punished the coalition government which has implemented an austerity-heavy set of policies over the past five years.Fine Gael, the main party in the outgoing coalition, looked set to lose up to 20 seats as voters wreaked revenge on its coalition government with Labour that brought in austerity measures. | • Ireland’s general election was on course on Saturday to produce a hung parliament after voters punished the coalition government which has implemented an austerity-heavy set of policies over the past five years.Fine Gael, the main party in the outgoing coalition, looked set to lose up to 20 seats as voters wreaked revenge on its coalition government with Labour that brought in austerity measures. |
| • The prospect of a “grand coalition” between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael – the two ostensibly christian democratic parties which have taken turns to lead successive Irish governments since independence – appears to be on the cards.The leader of Fianna Fail, which surprised pundits by staging a recovery after voters punished it in 2011 after Ireland’s crash, said that his party would be “practical” and that it was essential to form a government that was “coherent”. | • The prospect of a “grand coalition” between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael – the two ostensibly christian democratic parties which have taken turns to lead successive Irish governments since independence – appears to be on the cards.The leader of Fianna Fail, which surprised pundits by staging a recovery after voters punished it in 2011 after Ireland’s crash, said that his party would be “practical” and that it was essential to form a government that was “coherent”. |
| • Sinn Fein was on course to continue its march in the Republic of Ireland, with an expected increase in its representation in the Dublin parliament, the Dail, by around 50%. However, the party looked set to miss out on key targets it had set for itself in some constituencies due to the apparent reluctance of many voters to give their second preference votes to the party that was once umbilically linked to the IRA. | • Sinn Fein was on course to continue its march in the Republic of Ireland, with an expected increase in its representation in the Dublin parliament, the Dail, by around 50%. However, the party looked set to miss out on key targets it had set for itself in some constituencies due to the apparent reluctance of many voters to give their second preference votes to the party that was once umbilically linked to the IRA. |
| • The former Labour leader Eamon Gilmore has said that the heavy losses now being suffered by the party are a consequence of necessary but unpopular decisions which it had to make after going into coalition five years ago.However, the results also suggested firm evidence of leftward turn on the part of record numbers of the electorate who were opting for a range of left of centre candidates. | • The former Labour leader Eamon Gilmore has said that the heavy losses now being suffered by the party are a consequence of necessary but unpopular decisions which it had to make after going into coalition five years ago.However, the results also suggested firm evidence of leftward turn on the part of record numbers of the electorate who were opting for a range of left of centre candidates. |
| 6.11pm GMT | 6.11pm GMT |
| 18:11 | 18:11 |
| Of course, away from the potential settling of age-old enmities arising from the legacy Ireland’s Civil War politics, the latest chapter in another age-old battle is being fought. | Of course, away from the potential settling of age-old enmities arising from the legacy Ireland’s Civil War politics, the latest chapter in another age-old battle is being fought. |
| You can follow the latest from Ireland’s clash with England in the Six Nations here. It’s also bringing Ireland’s disparate political tribes together at count centres meanwhile. | You can follow the latest from Ireland’s clash with England in the Six Nations here. It’s also bringing Ireland’s disparate political tribes together at count centres meanwhile. |
| In Dublin, a tannoy announcer has been updating us on the game’s score in between election results: “10-9 at Twickenham” | In Dublin, a tannoy announcer has been updating us on the game’s score in between election results: “10-9 at Twickenham” |
| The #IREvENG match seems to have taken some of the attention away from the count here at the RDS #GE16 pic.twitter.com/yjNCrqU1rv | The #IREvENG match seems to have taken some of the attention away from the count here at the RDS #GE16 pic.twitter.com/yjNCrqU1rv |
| 6.04pm GMT | 6.04pm GMT |
| 18:04 | 18:04 |
| A few more snapshots of action from constituencies around the country | A few more snapshots of action from constituencies around the country |
| • Roisin Shortall, a former Labour minister who became one of the co-founders of the Social Democrats, a new left wing party, has been elected in the constituency of Dublin North West. | • Roisin Shortall, a former Labour minister who became one of the co-founders of the Social Democrats, a new left wing party, has been elected in the constituency of Dublin North West. |
| • The Labour Party’s woes were underlined when Alex White, communications minister in the coalition government, lost the race to hold his own Dublin seat. | • The Labour Party’s woes were underlined when Alex White, communications minister in the coalition government, lost the race to hold his own Dublin seat. |
| • Leo Varadkar, tipped as a potential future leader of Fine Gael, has topped the poll in the constituency of Dublin West and was on course for re-election. | • Leo Varadkar, tipped as a potential future leader of Fine Gael, has topped the poll in the constituency of Dublin West and was on course for re-election. |