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| Ireland general election: exit polls show coalition losing majority – live | Ireland general election: exit polls show coalition losing majority – live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 8.35am GMT | |
| 08:35 | |
| So what happens now? Well, much chatter is already focusing on the possibility of a grand coalition between Ireland’s two centrist, sometimes right of centre, christian democratic parties: Fine Gael and Fianna Fail. | |
| Different figures from RTE but same result. FG-Lab coalition crushed. Rise of independents and a grand coalition/hung Dail. #GE16 | |
| Don’t be quick to assume that will happen though, for a range of reasons. Perhaps it may take a slightly different form however: | |
| FF supporting a minority FG government would be political suicide for a party emerging from intensive care. Coalition a different matter, | |
| The prospect of Sinn Fein becoming the main opposition party is also likely to be a potentially major brake on Fianna Fail and Fine Gael burying their long-held difference. | |
| If FG & FF form unity government, SF wld be v happy to become biggest opposition in Dail, a prospect which will give FG/FF pause for thought | |
| .. and, while ideological differences between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael may be wafer thin at the moment, there’s also the fact of good old fashioned personal enmity... and trust. | |
| Here’s an FG minister, Leo Varadkar, speaking to the Guardian recently on the question of historical differences dating back to Ireland’s civil war being buried: | |
| It’s not about the civil war, the civil war is over a long time and I don’t particularly come from a traditional Fine Gael background. | |
| It’s a mistake to think its still about the civil war because it’s actually about trust and we just don’t trust them [Fianna Fáil], | |
| Updated | |
| at 8.37am GMT | |
| 8.21am GMT | |
| 08:21 | |
| Here are the results of the exit poll from RTE, published this morning: | |
| 8.05am GMT | |
| 08:05 | |
| So we have two major exit polls to work from for now. An MRBI poll for the Irish Times published on Friday night found : | |
| Be warned however. The above is based on first preference votes cast using Ireland’s somewhat unusual voting process, a form of proportional representation known as the single transferable vote system. It might be complex, but if anything, it can generate drama of the highest order on a day like today. | |
| For those coming afresh to this election, you might want to read the Guardian briefing by Ireland Correspondent Henry McDonald: | |
| Related: Ireland's general election – the Guardian briefing | |
| 7.57am GMT | 7.57am GMT |
| 07:57 | 07:57 |
| Henry McDonald | Henry McDonald |
| After waging a campaign for re-election on the basis of their stewardship of an economy shattered by an economic collapse, exit polls suggest that Ireland’s governing coalition has suffered a significant loss in support. | After waging a campaign for re-election on the basis of their stewardship of an economy shattered by an economic collapse, exit polls suggest that Ireland’s governing coalition has suffered a significant loss in support. |
| The Guardian’s Ireland Correspondent, Henry McDonald reports on how voters may be asked to return to the polls much sooner than expected: | The Guardian’s Ireland Correspondent, Henry McDonald reports on how voters may be asked to return to the polls much sooner than expected: |
| Ireland may be facing a second general election as an exit poll from one of the country’s most reputed media organisations has found that the Fine Gael-Labour coalition has fallen far short of a working majority. | Ireland may be facing a second general election as an exit poll from one of the country’s most reputed media organisations has found that the Fine Gael-Labour coalition has fallen far short of a working majority. |
| An Irish Times/MRBI exit poll released tonight has found the ruling Fine Gael party is less than four per cent ahead of the main opposition force Fianna Fail. | An Irish Times/MRBI exit poll released tonight has found the ruling Fine Gael party is less than four per cent ahead of the main opposition force Fianna Fail. |
| According to the results of the poll taken among a sample of more than 5,000 voters outside 200 polling stations across the Republic on Friday, Fine Gael has 26.1 per cent of first preference votes. | According to the results of the poll taken among a sample of more than 5,000 voters outside 200 polling stations across the Republic on Friday, Fine Gael has 26.1 per cent of first preference votes. |
| The exit poll shows a considerable gain for Fianna Fail who are on 22.9 per cent. Sinn Fein meanwhile has gained four points from its 10 per cent performance in the 2001 general election. | The exit poll shows a considerable gain for Fianna Fail who are on 22.9 per cent. Sinn Fein meanwhile has gained four points from its 10 per cent performance in the 2001 general election. |
| Labour - Fine Gael’s partners in government for the last five years - are on 7.8 per cent, the exit poll reveals. | Labour - Fine Gael’s partners in government for the last five years - are on 7.8 per cent, the exit poll reveals. |
| 7.52am GMT | 7.52am GMT |
| 07:52 | 07:52 |
| Opening summary | Opening summary |
| Hello and welcome to the Guardian’s liveblog on the outcome of Ireland’s general election from here in Dublin. | Hello and welcome to the Guardian’s liveblog on the outcome of Ireland’s general election from here in Dublin. |
| Already, early indications are that Ireland and Irish politics have entered uncharted territory with two major exit polls showing a major slump in support for the outgoing coalition partners - the larger right of centre party, Fine Gael, and its left of centre partner, Labour. | Already, early indications are that Ireland and Irish politics have entered uncharted territory with two major exit polls showing a major slump in support for the outgoing coalition partners - the larger right of centre party, Fine Gael, and its left of centre partner, Labour. |
| Gains have been made by made by Fianna Fáil, the party which had led the government at the time of Ireland’s 2008 economic crash and which has been rebuilding itself, as well as Sinn Féin, which has been hoping to make a major breakthrough in the Republic on the back of an anti-austerity platform. | Gains have been made by made by Fianna Fáil, the party which had led the government at the time of Ireland’s 2008 economic crash and which has been rebuilding itself, as well as Sinn Féin, which has been hoping to make a major breakthrough in the Republic on the back of an anti-austerity platform. |
| However, the building blocks for a new government are scattered, with the country predicted to be heading for a hung parliament. | However, the building blocks for a new government are scattered, with the country predicted to be heading for a hung parliament. |
| As with other recent elections, the big winners appear to be a collection of independents and smaller parties. That’s on the basis of two exit polls, one for the Irish Times and one for the state broadcaster RTE. | As with other recent elections, the big winners appear to be a collection of independents and smaller parties. That’s on the basis of two exit polls, one for the Irish Times and one for the state broadcaster RTE. |
| I’m Ben Quinn and I’ll be bringing you updates as results come in throughout the day from around the country. With me will be the Guardian’s Ireland correspondent, Henry McDonald, who will be filing reports and analysis. You can follow us on Twitter at @BenQuinn75 and @henry_mcdonald. | I’m Ben Quinn and I’ll be bringing you updates as results come in throughout the day from around the country. With me will be the Guardian’s Ireland correspondent, Henry McDonald, who will be filing reports and analysis. You can follow us on Twitter at @BenQuinn75 and @henry_mcdonald. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 8.23am GMT |