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Syria Truce Comes With Price, but Not for Assad Syria Truce Comes With Price, but Not for Assad
(about 1 hour later)
WASHINGTON — If the temporary cease-fire in Syria begins to take hold on Saturday — despite the low expectations of the American and Russian officials who negotiated the agreement — it will be a landmark event. For the first time, diplomacy will have succeeded in abating the killing and misery that have already led to more than 250,000 deaths and millions of refugees pouring out of the shattered country. WASHINGTON — If the temporary cease-fire in Syria begins to take hold on Saturday, despite the low expectations of the American and Russian officials who negotiated the agreement, it will be a landmark event. For the first time, diplomacy will have succeeded in abating the killing and misery that have already led to more than 250,000 deaths and millions of refugees pouring out of the shattered country.
But like everything else in the bloody five-year-long civil war, even the accord to limit the shooting has come at a high price, not least for President Obama. But like everything else in the bloody five-year civil war, even the accord to limit the shooting has come at a high price, not least for President Obama.
In the estimate of European and Israeli intelligence officials — but not the White House — the pause in fighting may have the unintended consequence of consolidating President Bashar al-Assad’s hold on power over Syria for at least the next few years. Perhaps more important, if it proves successful, it may also begin to freeze in place what already amounts to an informal partition of the country, even though the stated objective of the West is to keep the country whole. In the estimate of European and Israeli intelligence officials, but not the White House, the pause in fighting may have the unintended consequence of consolidating President Bashar al-Assad’s hold on power over Syria for at least the next few years. Perhaps more important, if it proves successful, it may also begin to freeze in place what already amounts to an informal partition of the country, even though the stated objective of the West is to keep the country whole.
The “cessation of hostilities,” as it is officially known, that began midnight Friday is the first real product of a diplomatic push that Secretary of State John Kerry has made his all-consuming mission since last summer, when he struck the nuclear accord with Iran. Testifying in Congress this week, Mr. Kerry acknowledged that with so many different players involved — Russian forces in the air, Iranian ground troops, dispirited and fractious opposition groups that say they have received too little aid from the West, and Mr. Assad’s own forces — this resembles a Hail Mary pass. The “cessation of hostilities,” as it is officially known, that began midnight Friday is the first real product of a diplomatic push that Secretary of State John Kerry has made his all-consuming mission since last summer, when he struck the nuclear accord with Iran. Testifying in Congress this week, Mr. Kerry acknowledged that with so many players involved — Russian forces in the air, Iranian ground troops, dispirited and fractious opposition groups that say they have received too little aid from the West, and Mr. Assad’s own forces — this resembles a Hail Mary pass.
“I know this: If it doesn’t work, the potential is there that Syria will be utterly destroyed,” Mr. Kerry said. “The fact is that we need to make certain that we are exploring and exhausting every option of diplomatic resolution.”“I know this: If it doesn’t work, the potential is there that Syria will be utterly destroyed,” Mr. Kerry said. “The fact is that we need to make certain that we are exploring and exhausting every option of diplomatic resolution.”
At the same time he conceded in his Senate testimony that the White House was already preparing a “Plan B in the event that we don’t succeed at the table” — a mix of military options that, so far, administration officials say Mr. Obama has rejected. On Friday, fighting raged on several fronts in Syria as combatants sought to gain last-minute advantage before the cease-fire. At the same time he conceded in his Senate testimony that the White House was already preparing a “Plan B in the event that we don’t succeed at the table” — a mix of military options that, so far, administration officials say Mr. Obama has rejected. On Friday, fighting raged on several fronts in Syria as combatants sought to gain last-minute advantages before the cease-fire.
Dozens of barrel bombs and other munitions fell on the suburbs of Damascus, Syria’s capital. Rebels there said that the suburb of Daraya is a bastion of insurgents who are not affiliated with either the Nusra Front or the Islamic State — the only two groups not exempted from attack because they are designated by the United Nations as terrorist organizations. But the Syrian government said Daraya was not covered under any truce, suggesting those attacks may continue. Dozens of barrel bombs and other munitions fell on the suburbs of Damascus, Syria’s capital. Rebels there said the suburb of Daraya was a bastion of insurgents who were not affiliated with either the Nusra Front or the Islamic State, the only two groups not exempted from attack because they are designated by the United Nations as terrorist organizations. But the Syrian government said Daraya was not covered under any truce, suggesting those attacks may continue.
While most of the major rebel groups who oppose the Assad government have signed on to the cease-fire many said that if their forces are hit by the Russians and Syrians, even by an attack meant to target the Islamic State or the Nusra Front, they would retaliate. While most of the major rebel groups who oppose the Assad government have signed on to the cease-fire, many said that if their forces are hit by the Russians and the Syrians — even by an attack meant to target the Islamic State or the Nusra Front — they would retaliate.
But the issue has become even more complicated by what the agreement may or may not portend for Mr. Assad’s future — and how the cease-fire affects his ability to hold onto the presidency. But the issue has become even more complicated by what the deal may or may not portend for Mr. Assad’s future, and how the cease-fire affects his ability to hold onto the presidency.
Last summer, with Mr. Assad’s forces reeling, many intelligence agencies were speculating that he could be forced from office by the end of 2015. Then came the Russian and Iranian intervention. His fortunes have changed dramatically. Last summer, with Mr. Assad’s forces reeling, many intelligence agencies were speculating that he could be forced from office by the end of 2015. Then came the Russian and Iranian interventions. His fortunes have changed dramatically.
Now European and Israeli officials argue this preliminary agreement essentially abandons what was once a precondition of the Obama administration and opposition groups: that Mr. Assad must go as part of any political deal. Now European and Israeli officials contend that this preliminary agreement essentially abandons what was once a precondition of the Obama administration and the opposition groups: that Mr. Assad must go as part of any political deal.
“There is a low prospect that this will work, because there are spoilers on both sides, there are opposition groups that won’t respect the cease-fire, and we can’t trust the Russians will limit their military action to specific terrorist groups,” said Philip H. Gordon, who was one of Mr. Obama’s top Middle East advisers on the National Security Council until last year.“There is a low prospect that this will work, because there are spoilers on both sides, there are opposition groups that won’t respect the cease-fire, and we can’t trust the Russians will limit their military action to specific terrorist groups,” said Philip H. Gordon, who was one of Mr. Obama’s top Middle East advisers on the National Security Council until last year.
But Mr. Gordon sees a subtle shift in the administration’s position. “For almost five years the opposition groups and their representatives have said they cannot agree to a cease-fire without agreement on a political process for Assad’s eventual removal,” he noted. Now that has changed.But Mr. Gordon sees a subtle shift in the administration’s position. “For almost five years the opposition groups and their representatives have said they cannot agree to a cease-fire without agreement on a political process for Assad’s eventual removal,” he noted. Now that has changed.
Mr. Obama still talks about the need for Mr. Assad to go. After holding a National Security Council meeting at the State Department on Thursday, he said Syria’s future “cannot include Bashar al-Assad.”Mr. Obama still talks about the need for Mr. Assad to go. After holding a National Security Council meeting at the State Department on Thursday, he said Syria’s future “cannot include Bashar al-Assad.”
“It’s clear that after years of his barbaric war against his own people — including torture and barrel bombs and sieges and starvation — many Syrians will never stop fighting until Assad is out of power,” Mr. Obama said. “There’s no alternative to a managed transition away from Assad.” “It’s clear that after years of his barbaric war against his own people, including torture and barrel bombs and sieges and starvation, many Syrians will never stop fighting until Assad is out of power,” Mr. Obama said. “There’s no alternative to a managed transition away from Assad.”
But at the United Nations on Friday, the resolutions embracing the cease-fire also seemed to give some political cover to the military gains the Russians — along with Iranian forces and Mr. Assad’s Alawite-dominated army — have made, including the encirclement of Aleppo.But at the United Nations on Friday, the resolutions embracing the cease-fire also seemed to give some political cover to the military gains the Russians — along with Iranian forces and Mr. Assad’s Alawite-dominated army — have made, including the encirclement of Aleppo.
Mr. Gordon noted that the cessation of hostilities agreement may “effectively start to develop into a de facto partition of the country, whereby different ethnic groups control the regions they are currently holding.” That is what worries the Israelis, who see an Syria-Russian-Iranian axis developing on their border, a group that already has the support of the terrorist group Hezbollah. Mr. Gordon noted that the cessation of hostilities agreement may “effectively start to develop into a de facto partition of the country, whereby different ethnic groups control the regions they are currently holding.” That is what worries the Israelis, who see a Syrian-Russian-Iranian axis developing on their border, a group that already has the support of the terrorist group Hezbollah.
Over time, European and Israeli officials say, the cease-fire may give Mr. Assad lasting control of the string of major cities — Damascus to Homs to Aleppo — that are now increasingly in his control, thanks to Russian and Iranian support. And it begins to etch out other territory for the Sunni opposition groups backed by Washington and the Arab states, while giving a sliver in the north to the Kurds.Over time, European and Israeli officials say, the cease-fire may give Mr. Assad lasting control of the string of major cities — Damascus to Homs to Aleppo — that are now increasingly in his control, thanks to Russian and Iranian support. And it begins to etch out other territory for the Sunni opposition groups backed by Washington and the Arab states, while giving a sliver in the north to the Kurds.
John Kirby, Mr. Kerry’s spokesman, disputes the idea that the agreement would carve Syria along the existing battle lines. “You need to look at the text,” he said. “Every document includes explicit commitment to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria, and you could argue that we’ve actually made a stronger commitment against partition than ever before, because all of the parties have signed on to that notion.”John Kirby, Mr. Kerry’s spokesman, disputes the idea that the agreement would carve Syria along the existing battle lines. “You need to look at the text,” he said. “Every document includes explicit commitment to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria, and you could argue that we’ve actually made a stronger commitment against partition than ever before, because all of the parties have signed on to that notion.”
A senior administration official, who would not speak on the record about the internal White House deliberations, argued that the separate enclaves were temporary and would make it possible for negotiations on a political settlement to get started.A senior administration official, who would not speak on the record about the internal White House deliberations, argued that the separate enclaves were temporary and would make it possible for negotiations on a political settlement to get started.
“What is the alternative?” he asked.“What is the alternative?” he asked.
The question is whether the cease-fire becomes an end unto itself, or whether it leads to the negotiations that Mr. Kerry has envisioned as the centerpiece of the “Vienna process,” a negotiating path laid out by all of Syria’s neighbors in an agreement announced in the Austrian capital late last year. The question is whether the cease-fire becomes an end unto itself, or whether it leads to the talks that Mr. Kerry has envisioned as the centerpiece of the “Vienna process,” a negotiating path laid out by all of Syria’s neighbors in an agreement announced in the Austrian capital late last year.
On Friday the United Nations mediator, Staffan de Mistura, said he hoped the pause could allow desperately needed food and medicine to get into towns under siege for months and, if the truce holds, pave the way for political negotiations to resume on March 7.On Friday the United Nations mediator, Staffan de Mistura, said he hoped the pause could allow desperately needed food and medicine to get into towns under siege for months and, if the truce holds, pave the way for political negotiations to resume on March 7.
“It is potentially, a historic junction — to bring an end to the killing and destruction and to start a new life and new hope for the Syrians,” Mr. de Mistura said. “It is, potentially, a historic junction — to bring an end to the killing and destruction and to start a new life and new hope for the Syrians,” Mr. de Mistura said.
That is the optimistic view. The more pessimistic one is that the cessation becomes what the French ambassador to the United Nations, François Delattre, called “a smokescreen allowing someone to crush the Syrian civilians and the opposition.” That is the optimistic view. The more pessimistic one is that the cessation becomes what the French ambassador to the United Nations, François Delattre, called “a smoke screen allowing someone to crush the Syrian civilians and the opposition.”