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When it comes to abortion, are we even asking the right questions? When it comes to abortion, are we even asking the right questions?
(about 1 hour later)
Are you pro-life or pro-choice? Or some mixture of the two? Do those labels even fit the views you hear expressed by friends? Do you believe abortion should be illegal? Or perhaps legal only under some circumstances?Are you pro-life or pro-choice? Or some mixture of the two? Do those labels even fit the views you hear expressed by friends? Do you believe abortion should be illegal? Or perhaps legal only under some circumstances?
The debate over abortion is polarizing once again, inviting people to take sides over a case out of Texas that the Supreme Court will hear Wednesday. But when it comes to understanding public opinion, are we asking the right questions?The debate over abortion is polarizing once again, inviting people to take sides over a case out of Texas that the Supreme Court will hear Wednesday. But when it comes to understanding public opinion, are we asking the right questions?
[The most important abortion case at the Supreme Court in a generation focuses on women, not fetuses][The most important abortion case at the Supreme Court in a generation focuses on women, not fetuses]
Tresa Undem, a partner in the research and communications firm PerryUndem who had conducted public opinion research for the past 14 years, thinks not. Here’s what she told the Washington Post. The interview has been slightly edited for clarity. Tresa Undem, a partner in the research and communications firm PerryUndem who had conducted public opinion research for the past 14 years, thinks not. Here’s what she told The Washington Post. The interview has been slightly edited for clarity.
Q. How do we currently poll the public on abortion?Q. How do we currently poll the public on abortion?
A. Currently most polling firms ask about views toward abortion in terms of legality with variations on four questions. Should abortion be:A. Currently most polling firms ask about views toward abortion in terms of legality with variations on four questions. Should abortion be:
1) legal in almost all cases1) legal in almost all cases
2) legal in most cases2) legal in most cases
3) only legal in cases of rape, abuse or women’s health3) only legal in cases of rape, abuse or women’s health
oror
4) never legal.4) never legal.
And then how it’s reported is to collapse the first two categories and the second two categories and that is what is reported as a “divided public.” That tends to be 50-50, ranging between about 5 to 10 percentage points in the past 20 years or so. And then how it’s reported is to collapse the first two categories and the second two categories and that is what is reported as a “divided public.” That tends to be 50 to 50, ranging between about 5 to 10 percentage points in the past 20 years or so.
Q. What’s wrong with those questions?Q. What’s wrong with those questions?
A. When you look more closely, particularly at the people who say abortion should be legal only in rare cicumstances, they don't look like you would expect them to look. Their answers to the questins are inconsistent with that view. So in polling I did with Vox last year, 53 percent of those people don’t want to overturn Roe v Wade, which says a woman has a constitutional right to abortion up to fetal viability; 45 percent of those people feel like the trend to restrict abortion access is going in the wrog direction; 66 percent of those people say they want a woman who has decided to have an abotion to have a supportive experience. A. When you look more closely, particularly at the people who say abortion should be legal only in rare circumstances, they don't look like you would expect them to look. Their answers to the questions are inconsistent with that view. So in polling I did with Vox last year, 53 percent of those people don’t want to overturn Roe v Wade, which says a woman has a constitutional right to abortion up to fetal viability; 45 percent of those people feel like the trend to restrict abortion access is going in the wrong direction; 66 percent of those people say they want a woman who has decided to have an abortion to have a supportive experience.
And here’s the most interesting question from a recent survey I did: 21 percent of those who say abortion should never be legal do not want to overturn Roe. And here’s the most interesting question from a recent survey I did: Twenty-one percent of those who say abortion should never be legal do not want to overturn Roe.
And 33 percent of them opposed the Republicans’ 11 proposed restrictions on abortion in the early days of the session.And 33 percent of them opposed the Republicans’ 11 proposed restrictions on abortion in the early days of the session.
Q. We need to stick with the current questions to measure changes over time, right?Q. We need to stick with the current questions to measure changes over time, right?
A. Yes, we need the same wording to track opinion over time. But let’s track opinions correctly first. And then track them over time.A. Yes, we need the same wording to track opinion over time. But let’s track opinions correctly first. And then track them over time.
Q. Are you saying that polling is divorced from reality?Q. Are you saying that polling is divorced from reality?
A. Right now, abortion policy is not about legality. It’s not about whether abortion should be legal except in rape, etc. What’s going on in terms of policy is restrictions and things related to women who decide to have an abortion: Whether the women should have an ultrasound; whether providers should have the same facilities as an ambulatory surgery center; whether they need to have admitting privileges at a local hospital. A. Right now, abortion policy is not about legality. It’s not about whether abortion should be legal except in rape, etc. What’s going on in terms of policy is restrictions and things related to women who decide to have an abortion: whether the women should have an ultrasound; whether providers should have the same facilities as an ambulatory surgery center; whether they need to have admitting privileges at a local hospital.
I cannot get a meaningful sense of public opinion when the public doesn’t know anything about the issue. How do I get whether people to favor or oppose admitting privileges, when they have no idea whether abortion is safe. I can’t measure opinion on restrictions when people have no idea what the reality around access is right now. I cannot get a meaningful sense of public opinion when the public doesn’t know anything about the issue. How do I get whether people favor or oppose admitting privileges, when they have no idea whether abortion is safe. I can’t measure opinion on restrictions when people have no idea what the reality around access is right now.
Q. So what’s a better measure?Q. So what’s a better measure?
A. People do not know about safety, about the laws that are in place, about whether there are providers in their own community. So how can I measure opinion in the absence of knowledge?A. People do not know about safety, about the laws that are in place, about whether there are providers in their own community. So how can I measure opinion in the absence of knowledge?
What I did in the last poll with Vox in March 2015 and have repeated in a poll that will come out on Monday, is I went to experience.What I did in the last poll with Vox in March 2015 and have repeated in a poll that will come out on Monday, is I went to experience.
One in three women will have an abortion. So we asked, should that experience be informed by medical expertise? Should it be without added burdens? And guess what? Seventy percent of people said yes. Should it be affordable? Sixty-nine percent said yes.One in three women will have an abortion. So we asked, should that experience be informed by medical expertise? Should it be without added burdens? And guess what? Seventy percent of people said yes. Should it be affordable? Sixty-nine percent said yes.
At least this gives me a meaningful sense without having to know much about abortion. People can give a meaningful opinion of what they want that experience which is so common to be. At least this gives me a meaningful sense without having to know much about abortion. People can give a meaningful opinion of how they want an experience, which is such a common one, to take place.