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Syria: Towards a fragile 'ceasefire' Syria: Mixed verdict on fragile truce
(3 days later)
The stage is set for the potential implementation of some kind of a ceasefire in Syria. The cessation of hostilities in Syria is holding rather better than many people might have imagined. Nonetheless it remains incomplete, partial, and fundamentally fragile. The key questions now are:
The Syrian government, the Russians, the US and its allies, along with just under 100 rebel groups, all appear willing to come on board. It is still too early to get a clear sense of what is happening on the ground.
But if it goes into effect at all, this "cessation of hostilities" - some prefer to call it a temporary truce - is going to be incomplete, partial, and fundamentally fragile. But after a lull on Saturday, air attacks on behalf of the Syrian regime look to have resumed on Sunday in the Aleppo area and in Idlib province.
For a start, there are several conflicts going on within Syria: It is not possible at this stage to say if the air attacks were carried out by the Syrian government or Russian warplanes.
The US-led campaign against IS is also continuing. On Saturday there was heavy fighting between Kurdish forces who struggled to throw back an IS offensive in and around the northern town of Tal Abyad.
Here, US air power appears to have had a decisive role.
The continued fighting is a reflection of the fact that there are multiple conflicts underway on the ground.
Three problemsThree problems
Problem number one is that the proposed truce is only partial. Problem number one is that the truce only applies to one of these conflicts - that between the Syrian regime and its rebel opponents.
It really only applies to one of these conflicts - that between the Syrian regime and its rebel opponents. It specifically excludes the campaign against IS and Jabhat al-Nusra.
It specifically excludes the campaign against so-called Islamic State and also that against the al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra. So even in the best of outcomes, Russian and Western air attacks against these two groups will continue.
So even in the best of outcomes, Russian and Western air attacks against these two groups would still continue.
However, it must be said that up to now, Russia has carried out relatively few attacks against IS targets.However, it must be said that up to now, Russia has carried out relatively few attacks against IS targets.
And this leads us on to problem number two.And this leads us on to problem number two.
The boundaries between these various conflicts in Syria are often vague and to varying degrees they overlap.The boundaries between these various conflicts in Syria are often vague and to varying degrees they overlap.
So, for example, the Syrian military has already suggested that it will not accept a ceasefire in the Damascus suburb of Daraya, where it argues the opposition forces are dominated by Jabhat al-Nusra.So, for example, the Syrian military has already suggested that it will not accept a ceasefire in the Damascus suburb of Daraya, where it argues the opposition forces are dominated by Jabhat al-Nusra.
Some argue that this is simply wrong and that al-Nusra fighters do not make up the majority of rebel forces there.
But it shows that even before any cessation comes into effect, the Syrian government may seek to roll out this excuse to continue military operations in areas where it thinks it has an advantage.
Russia too argues that it has the right to continue air operations against UN-designated terrorist groups like al-Nusra.Russia too argues that it has the right to continue air operations against UN-designated terrorist groups like al-Nusra.
But any taint of alliance with this group might well, in Moscow's eyes, open up rebel forces to Russian attack.But any taint of alliance with this group might well, in Moscow's eyes, open up rebel forces to Russian attack.
Up until now, for the Russians, pretty well all the forces opposed to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad have fallen into the category of "terrorist" at one time or another. A map of Syria put out by the Russians suggests only very restricted areas in which Moscow believes that the ceasefire should hold.
The complexities of the fighting involving Kurdish groups in northern Syria prompts a third set of problems for any ceasefire.The complexities of the fighting involving Kurdish groups in northern Syria prompts a third set of problems for any ceasefire.
Here, Kurdish fighters backed by both the Americans and to an extent the Russians, are making headway in the region bordering Turkey.Here, Kurdish fighters backed by both the Americans and to an extent the Russians, are making headway in the region bordering Turkey.
Alarm bells are ringing in Ankara.Alarm bells are ringing in Ankara.
And Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has made it clear that any ceasefire would not be "binding for us when there is a situation that threatens Turkey's security".And Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has made it clear that any ceasefire would not be "binding for us when there is a situation that threatens Turkey's security".
"We will," he said, "take necessary measures against both the YPG (Kurdish fighters) and Daesh (IS) when we feel the need to.""We will," he said, "take necessary measures against both the YPG (Kurdish fighters) and Daesh (IS) when we feel the need to."
More on this story:More on this story:
RespiteRespite
This is all on the negative side of the balance sheet.This is all on the negative side of the balance sheet.
Who might actually benefit from a truce, or even a series of local halts to the fighting? Clearly ordinary people might welcome the respite, especially if food and supplies can be delivered to towns and villages cut off up until now by the fighting.
Well, clearly ordinary people might welcome the respite, especially if food and supplies can be delivered to towns and villages cut off up to now by the fighting. This in a sense is the immediate litmus test for any partial ceasefire arrangement - will it help to alleviate the situation on the ground?
Hard-pressed rebel fighters might also welcome a period to pause and regroup.Hard-pressed rebel fighters might also welcome a period to pause and regroup.
Russia may well see this as at least the start of a diplomatic end game, one that for now recognises that the Assad regime - or something like it - is here to stay. At a more strategic level, Russia may well see this as at least the start of a diplomatic endgame, one that recognises for now that the Assad regime - or something like it - is here to stay.
But if the experience of Russian diplomacy in Ukraine is anything to go by, we could be in for a lengthy period of abortive ceasefires and outbreaks of fighting, as Syrian government forces seek to expand and consolidate their positions.But if the experience of Russian diplomacy in Ukraine is anything to go by, we could be in for a lengthy period of abortive ceasefires and outbreaks of fighting, as Syrian government forces seek to expand and consolidate their positions.
Indeed, there has been some especially heavy bombing in the run-up to the deadline for this cessation of hostilities. "So far, so good" would seem to be the interim judgement. But the so-called "ceasefire" retains all of the flaws that were there at its inception.
One crucial determinant of its effectiveness will be the extent to which the Syrian government forces and their allies have actually achieved their aims on the battlefield.
In short, nobody is very optimistic that this truce will take hold.In short, nobody is very optimistic that this truce will take hold.
US Secretary of State John Kerry has been especially honest in his appraisal of the situation.US Secretary of State John Kerry has been especially honest in his appraisal of the situation.
He has begun to speak of a "Plan B" if the current diplomatic efforts fail.He has begun to speak of a "Plan B" if the current diplomatic efforts fail.
But in explaining this to senators on Capitol Hill, he noted that one often-suggested step - the establishment of a safe zone inside northern Syria - would require, according to Pentagon estimates, the deployment of as many as 15,000 to 30,000 troops. But in explaining this to US senators, he noted that one often-suggested step - the establishment of a safe zone inside northern Syria - would require, according to Pentagon estimates, the deployment of as many as 15,000 to 30,000 troops.
And he warned that in the absence of progress towards peace, the situation in Syria could get "a lot uglier".And he warned that in the absence of progress towards peace, the situation in Syria could get "a lot uglier".
In a comment that raised just a few eyebrows, he seemed ultimately to countenance a redrawing of the map, noting that: "It may be too late to keep it as a whole Syria if we wait much longer."In a comment that raised just a few eyebrows, he seemed ultimately to countenance a redrawing of the map, noting that: "It may be too late to keep it as a whole Syria if we wait much longer."