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Ireland general election: votes cast as hung parliament predicted Irish election: exit poll shows no overall majority for ruling coalition
(about 7 hours later)
Voters in Ireland are going to the polls to elect a new government, amid pressure on the two biggest parties born out of the Irish civil war to bury their historic hostility and govern together for the first time. Ireland may be facing a second general election as an exit poll from one of the country’s most reputed media organisations has found that the Fine Gael-Labour coalition has fallen far short of a working majority.
More than 3 million people are eligible to vote in 40 constituencies, and there are 552 candidates contesting 157 seats in the Dáil, the Irish parliament. Polls close at 10pm on Friday night, and counting begins on Saturday. An Irish Times/MRBI exit poll released on Friday night found that the ruling Fine Gael party is less than 4% ahead of the main opposition force, Fianna Fáil.
Given that most opinion polls have predicted a hung parliament, which could lead to days – possibly weeks – of horse-trading between the main parties and a slew of unaligned independent candidates, some commentators have called on Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil to create a “grand coalition”, on the same lines as the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats when they came together to govern Germany. According to the results of the poll, taken among a sample of more than 5,000 voters outside 200 polling stations across the Republic on Friday, Fine Gael has 26.1% of first preference votes.
However, leading figures in ruling party Fine Gael, including health minister Leo Varadkar, have described such a coalition as a “nightmare”. Fine Gael and its Labour coalition partners have instead appealed to voters to return them to power in the name of stable government. The exit poll shows a considerable gain for Fianna Fáil with 22.9%. Sinn Féin, meanwhile, has gained four points from its 10% performance in the 2011 general election.
The prime minister, Enda Kenny, returned to his native County Mayo on Friday and cast his vote at a polling station in Castlebar. He would make history if he is re-elected, as since the state was created in 1921 no Fine Gael taoiseach has been returned for a second term of office. Labour, who have been Fine Gael’s partners in government for the last five years, are on 7.8% according to the exit poll.
The seat projections from the poll indicate that Fine Gael would return with roughly 56 seats, while Labour will come back to the Dáil, the Irish parliament, with between eight to 12 seats. Even at its highest estimate, a combined Fine Gael/Labour vote of 68 would be 12 short of an overall majority.
The exit poll does indicate that an amalgam of independents are on more than 16%. They could play the role of kingmakers in any new coalition although such a government would be politically unstable.
For Fianna Fáil the result is a remarkable turnaround in fortunes from a party that suffered a historic defeat in 2011 and only returned 21 TDs to the last Dáil. This time, according to the exit poll figures, Fianna Fáil could return with 40 seats.
A second exit poll will be published early on Saturday from RTE and will be a further indicator if this election has produced a hung parliament in Dublin. Ballot boxes are opened at 9am for counting across the Republic.
It may not be clear until Sunday or even Monday the overall outcome.
More than 3 million people have been eligible to vote in 40 constituencies, and there are 552 candidates contesting 157 seats in the Dáil..
Some commentators have called on Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil to create a “grand coalition”, on the same lines as the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats when they came together to govern Germany.
However, leading figures in ruling party Fine Gael, including health minister Leo Varadkar, have described such a coalition as a “nightmare”. Fine Gael and its Labour coalition partners instead appealed to voters to return them to power in the name of stable government.
The taoiseach, Enda Kenny, returned to his native County Mayo on Friday and cast his vote at a polling station in Castlebar. He would make history if he is re-elected, as since the state was created in 1921 no Fine Gael taoiseach has been returned for a second term of office.
Speaking after casting his vote, Kenny said: “I just hope that everybody around the country accepts their responsibility today and that people go out and vote and do their constitutional duty.”Speaking after casting his vote, Kenny said: “I just hope that everybody around the country accepts their responsibility today and that people go out and vote and do their constitutional duty.”
The Fianna Fáil leader, Micheál Martin, cast his vote with his family in Ballinlough, Cork, refusing to talk about any potential electoral outcomes but predicting a good result for his party.The Fianna Fáil leader, Micheál Martin, cast his vote with his family in Ballinlough, Cork, refusing to talk about any potential electoral outcomes but predicting a good result for his party.
Fourteen years of continuous Fianna Fáil rule came to an end when the party was trounced at the 2011 election, returning to parliament with only 20 seats – its worst electoral showing in the republic’s history. The party took a hammering from an electorate that blamed it for the collapse of the Celtic Tiger and the loss of fiscal sovereignty to the International Monetary Fund. Fourteen years of continuous Fianna Fáil rule came to an end when the party was trounced at the 2011 election – its worst electoral showing in the republic’s history. The party took a hammering from an electorate that blamed it for the collapse of the Celtic Tiger and the loss of fiscal sovereignty to the International Monetary Fund.
This time around, all opinion polls have forecast that Fine Gael will retain its No 1 spot and that the electorate will punish Labour for the coalition’s austerity programme, which has caused widespread anger, particularly over the imposition of water rates for the first time in the country’s history. This time around, all opinion polls – now supported by the exit poll – have forecast that Fine Gael will retain its No 1 spot and that the electorate will punish Labour for the coalition’s austerity programme, which has caused widespread anger, particularly over the imposition of water rates for the first time in the country’s history.
Sinn Féin is expected to capitalise on much of this anger, as will a number of leftist parties and an amalgam of independents. The Labour leader and deputy prime minister, Joan Burton, is in danger of losing her Dublin West seat.Sinn Féin is expected to capitalise on much of this anger, as will a number of leftist parties and an amalgam of independents. The Labour leader and deputy prime minister, Joan Burton, is in danger of losing her Dublin West seat.
Any coalition needs at least 79 seats to form a government. A Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil link-up would produce a huge working majority.Any coalition needs at least 79 seats to form a government. A Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil link-up would produce a huge working majority.
Although Northern Ireland has not been a major issue in this election, the spectre of the Troubles raised its head again on Friday morning at a polling station in the village of Hackballscross in County Louth.Although Northern Ireland has not been a major issue in this election, the spectre of the Troubles raised its head again on Friday morning at a polling station in the village of Hackballscross in County Louth.
Photographers who had arrived from Dublin to take pictures of former IRA commander Thomas “Slab” Murphy after he voted were warned not to by a Murphy associate. Hours later Murphy was sentenced in Dublin to 18 months in jail over tax evasion.Photographers who had arrived from Dublin to take pictures of former IRA commander Thomas “Slab” Murphy after he voted were warned not to by a Murphy associate. Hours later Murphy was sentenced in Dublin to 18 months in jail over tax evasion.