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| A largely pro-Brexit press could be significant if polls are close | A largely pro-Brexit press could be significant if polls are close |
| (6 months later) | |
| Where does Britain really stand on the vexed question of whether to leave the EU? This month the Daily Express decided to conduct a poll to find out. The results were striking, and allowed the newspaper to lead with a dramatic front page the following day, expressed, as with all its splash headlines, in bold capital letters: “92% want to quit the EU.” | Where does Britain really stand on the vexed question of whether to leave the EU? This month the Daily Express decided to conduct a poll to find out. The results were striking, and allowed the newspaper to lead with a dramatic front page the following day, expressed, as with all its splash headlines, in bold capital letters: “92% want to quit the EU.” |
| The paper had been no less certain the day before the poll (“EU deal is already falling apart”) and would continue in a similar vein the following week (“Quit the EU to save our NHS”). In fact, aside from a two-day break to commemorate Terry Wogan, and very brief lapses over rising house prices and a new Alzheimer’s wonder drug, the Express front page has remained impressively consistent. “Cameron’s EU deal is a con”, “You can’t win, prime minister”, “Cameron’s EU deal is a no good”. | The paper had been no less certain the day before the poll (“EU deal is already falling apart”) and would continue in a similar vein the following week (“Quit the EU to save our NHS”). In fact, aside from a two-day break to commemorate Terry Wogan, and very brief lapses over rising house prices and a new Alzheimer’s wonder drug, the Express front page has remained impressively consistent. “Cameron’s EU deal is a con”, “You can’t win, prime minister”, “Cameron’s EU deal is a no good”. |
| The Express’s anti-Europe obsession is no surprise – the paper has been running an explicit “crusade” to leave the EU since 2010 – and it is easy to disregard its polling results, given the sampling method (a question posed on the newspaper’s website) and extremely select electorate. | The Express’s anti-Europe obsession is no surprise – the paper has been running an explicit “crusade” to leave the EU since 2010 – and it is easy to disregard its polling results, given the sampling method (a question posed on the newspaper’s website) and extremely select electorate. |
| But David Cameron and the leaders of the Remain campaign will not easily dismiss the numbers behind them. 48,000 people took part in the online poll; 408,000 buy the Express. More importantly, the Express is far from the only newspaper that has already committed itself to doing all that it can to ensure Britain wakes up on 23 June ready to leave the EU. Where will the rest of Fleet Street fall? That’s just another item on the PM’s “To worry about” list. | But David Cameron and the leaders of the Remain campaign will not easily dismiss the numbers behind them. 48,000 people took part in the online poll; 408,000 buy the Express. More importantly, the Express is far from the only newspaper that has already committed itself to doing all that it can to ensure Britain wakes up on 23 June ready to leave the EU. Where will the rest of Fleet Street fall? That’s just another item on the PM’s “To worry about” list. |
| In 1975, the last time the UK went to the polls over the issue of EU membership, the yes vote won by a very comfortable margin – 67.2% to 32.8%. On that occasion, however, the entire national press was vociferously in support of staying in. The Daily Express, Daily Mail, Daily Telegraph, Times, Guardian, Sun, Mirror and Financial Times all spoke with one voice: it must be “yes”. | In 1975, the last time the UK went to the polls over the issue of EU membership, the yes vote won by a very comfortable margin – 67.2% to 32.8%. On that occasion, however, the entire national press was vociferously in support of staying in. The Daily Express, Daily Mail, Daily Telegraph, Times, Guardian, Sun, Mirror and Financial Times all spoke with one voice: it must be “yes”. |
| Those committed to keeping Britain in the EU can only dream of such a day this time. While most of the papers are yet to formally declare their position, Europhiles can confidently count on a much smaller number of supportive front pages on newsstands on 23 June. | Those committed to keeping Britain in the EU can only dream of such a day this time. While most of the papers are yet to formally declare their position, Europhiles can confidently count on a much smaller number of supportive front pages on newsstands on 23 June. |
| Most striking, in recent weeks, has been the position taken by the Daily Mail. Like its mid-market competitor, the Mail’s Euroscepticism is familiar, but the vehemence of its position has surprised even experienced Westminster-watchers familiar with the paper’s periodic Cameron-baiting. | Most striking, in recent weeks, has been the position taken by the Daily Mail. Like its mid-market competitor, the Mail’s Euroscepticism is familiar, but the vehemence of its position has surprised even experienced Westminster-watchers familiar with the paper’s periodic Cameron-baiting. |
| “Call that a deal, Dave?”, splashed the paper last Saturday, in response to the Brussels summit. A report quoting the PM’s arguments in favour of staying in was headlined: “Project fear begins ...”Its leader column the same day stated: “Mr Cameron and George Osborne have amused us enough with their risible charade.” | “Call that a deal, Dave?”, splashed the paper last Saturday, in response to the Brussels summit. A report quoting the PM’s arguments in favour of staying in was headlined: “Project fear begins ...”Its leader column the same day stated: “Mr Cameron and George Osborne have amused us enough with their risible charade.” |
| Reports of remain campaign interventions, such as the pro-EU letter signed by 200 business leaders, are badged “Planet fear” (“Who’d listen to this lot?” was the headline to the same report). Sir Jeremy Heywood, the civil service chief whom the paper likes to refer to as “Sir Cover-Up”, has earned a new nickname, “Lord Stitch-Up”, after the paper accused him of mobilising civil servants in favour of the remain campaign (though Heywood does not, yet, hold a peerage) | Reports of remain campaign interventions, such as the pro-EU letter signed by 200 business leaders, are badged “Planet fear” (“Who’d listen to this lot?” was the headline to the same report). Sir Jeremy Heywood, the civil service chief whom the paper likes to refer to as “Sir Cover-Up”, has earned a new nickname, “Lord Stitch-Up”, after the paper accused him of mobilising civil servants in favour of the remain campaign (though Heywood does not, yet, hold a peerage) |
| The Sun, too, though it is yet to declare its hand formally, offers little comfort for Inners. “Who do EU think you are kidding, Mr Cameron”, read the front page on 3 February, after the draft deal was published, adopting a slightly confusing Dad’s Army theme that cast Cameron as Captain Mainwairing and then, inside, employed his most famous catchphrase (“EU stupid boy”) against him. | The Sun, too, though it is yet to declare its hand formally, offers little comfort for Inners. “Who do EU think you are kidding, Mr Cameron”, read the front page on 3 February, after the draft deal was published, adopting a slightly confusing Dad’s Army theme that cast Cameron as Captain Mainwairing and then, inside, employed his most famous catchphrase (“EU stupid boy”) against him. |
| The PM’s arguments in favour of the deal were headed “Pinoccheu” (“Porkie pie 1 ...”); the pro-EU business letter was dismissed as “A write farce”, and those who signed it – including the Sun on Sunday columnist Karren Brady – were “cronies”. | The PM’s arguments in favour of the deal were headed “Pinoccheu” (“Porkie pie 1 ...”); the pro-EU business letter was dismissed as “A write farce”, and those who signed it – including the Sun on Sunday columnist Karren Brady – were “cronies”. |
| For the time being at least, however, the other Tory-supporting papers, the Telegraph and the Times and their Sunday stablemates, are being more measured. “There should be no doubt that Mr Cameron has worked hard to produce what he regards as a fair deal for Britain,” read a carefully argued leader column in last week’s Sunday Telegraph. “Some have already decided how to vote on June 23, but the rest of the country is now patiently waiting for both campaigns to flesh out their cases ...” | For the time being at least, however, the other Tory-supporting papers, the Telegraph and the Times and their Sunday stablemates, are being more measured. “There should be no doubt that Mr Cameron has worked hard to produce what he regards as a fair deal for Britain,” read a carefully argued leader column in last week’s Sunday Telegraph. “Some have already decided how to vote on June 23, but the rest of the country is now patiently waiting for both campaigns to flesh out their cases ...” |
| For all Fleet Street’s sound and fury, of course – the really big question is how significant any of it is, in an age when newspaper sales are plummeting and we consume our news much more broadly. The political scientist John Curtice says his research has led him to conclude that “yes, newspapers have smallish but noticeable effects on readers. But given now the proportion of people who read the newspapers is quite small, their ability to have any aggregate impact is much less.” | For all Fleet Street’s sound and fury, of course – the really big question is how significant any of it is, in an age when newspaper sales are plummeting and we consume our news much more broadly. The political scientist John Curtice says his research has led him to conclude that “yes, newspapers have smallish but noticeable effects on readers. But given now the proportion of people who read the newspapers is quite small, their ability to have any aggregate impact is much less.” |
| Even if newspapers don’t change the minds of the public, argues Tom Felle, lecturer in news and digital journalism at City University in London “they frame the narrative” – talk radio, programmes like Question Time and others pick up and follow the front pages, he says. “We saw that with the ‘Red Ed’ mantra before the election, and the conversations that were happening about how dangerous Labour would be if they were in government with the SNP.” | Even if newspapers don’t change the minds of the public, argues Tom Felle, lecturer in news and digital journalism at City University in London “they frame the narrative” – talk radio, programmes like Question Time and others pick up and follow the front pages, he says. “We saw that with the ‘Red Ed’ mantra before the election, and the conversations that were happening about how dangerous Labour would be if they were in government with the SNP.” |
| All of which could make an overwhelmingly pro-Brexit press very significant if the polls are close. But are they? Polling on the referendum has been broadly consistent since the autumn, notes Curtice - the problem is they don’t agree with each other. “The internet polls on average have been saying about 50-50 [among decided voters], and the telephone polls say 60-40 [in favour of remain].” Given the experience of pollsters at the general election, however, “we don’t know which is right”. | All of which could make an overwhelmingly pro-Brexit press very significant if the polls are close. But are they? Polling on the referendum has been broadly consistent since the autumn, notes Curtice - the problem is they don’t agree with each other. “The internet polls on average have been saying about 50-50 [among decided voters], and the telephone polls say 60-40 [in favour of remain].” Given the experience of pollsters at the general election, however, “we don’t know which is right”. |
| If the phone polls are more accurate, as is often assumed to be the case, “then maybe remain can be reasonably confident, but if it’s anything much less than that, then actually we’re in for a pretty tough old fight.” He notes that opinion shifted quite sharply during the final weeks of the Scotland referendum. | If the phone polls are more accurate, as is often assumed to be the case, “then maybe remain can be reasonably confident, but if it’s anything much less than that, then actually we’re in for a pretty tough old fight.” He notes that opinion shifted quite sharply during the final weeks of the Scotland referendum. |
| Given the collected efforts of a significant proportion of Fleet Street in the coming months, this one looks set to be close. | Given the collected efforts of a significant proportion of Fleet Street in the coming months, this one looks set to be close. |