This article is from the source 'nytimes' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/26/world/middleeast/iran-elections-q-and-a.html
The article has changed 7 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 0 | Version 1 |
|---|---|
| Examining Who’s Up for Election in Iran, and Candidates’ Potential Impact | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Q. What will Iranians be voting on? | Q. What will Iranians be voting on? |
| A. They will be selecting a new Parliament and members for an influential panel called the Assembly of Experts. | |
| Parliamentary elections are held every year. There are no parties, just individual candidates — 6,000 of them vying for 290 seats, and often without presenting a specific political program. The candidates fall roughly into three factions: reformist, moderate and hard-line. Each faction presents lists of multiple candidates, and voters usually pick one of the lists and spend at least 15 minutes filling in all the names by hand. For Iran’s main constituency, Tehran, there are 30 seats allocated in Parliament, meaning that voters will have to fill in 30 names. | Parliamentary elections are held every year. There are no parties, just individual candidates — 6,000 of them vying for 290 seats, and often without presenting a specific political program. The candidates fall roughly into three factions: reformist, moderate and hard-line. Each faction presents lists of multiple candidates, and voters usually pick one of the lists and spend at least 15 minutes filling in all the names by hand. For Iran’s main constituency, Tehran, there are 30 seats allocated in Parliament, meaning that voters will have to fill in 30 names. |
| The Assembly of Experts is an 88-member clerical council that has the task of monitoring the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 76, and is nominally in charge of naming a successor when he dies. However, since the supreme leader has the final say on all policy matters, the monitoring function is minimal. And analysts say that the choice of a successor to Ayatollah Khamenei will in all likelihood be deemed too important to be left to the assembly, which will instead confirm or select candidates chosen by Iran’s informal power centers in the clergy, military and business circles. | The Assembly of Experts is an 88-member clerical council that has the task of monitoring the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 76, and is nominally in charge of naming a successor when he dies. However, since the supreme leader has the final say on all policy matters, the monitoring function is minimal. And analysts say that the choice of a successor to Ayatollah Khamenei will in all likelihood be deemed too important to be left to the assembly, which will instead confirm or select candidates chosen by Iran’s informal power centers in the clergy, military and business circles. |
| In both elections, the candidates (men and women, clerics and civilians) are vetted by a group of gatekeepers, the 12 members of the Guardian Council, to ensure they are “good Muslims” and support the Islamic republic. This year, the council disqualified almost half of the more than 12,000 candidates who signed up to participate, many — if not most — of them reformists. The most prominent candidate to be disqualified was Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the founder of the Islamic republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who was running for the Assembly of Experts. | |
| Q. Do Iranians care about the elections, given that the candidates for Parliament and the Assembly of Experts have been handpicked by conservatives and that the supreme leader has the final say in all matters? | Q. Do Iranians care about the elections, given that the candidates for Parliament and the Assembly of Experts have been handpicked by conservatives and that the supreme leader has the final say in all matters? |
| A. You would think not, especially after the disappointment of 2009, when the government brutally crushed a rebellion over perceived vote-rigging in the re-election of former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. But many Iranians look upon the elections as an opportunity to cast a “revenge vote,” the only occasion they have to come back at the hard-liners many of them intensely despise. On social media, people are sharing clips of hard-liners in Parliament speaking out against the nuclear deal that Iran sealed with the Western powers this year, saying, “Let’s get rid of these guys.” | |
| They have done it before. Iran’s vast middle classes feel they achieved a victory in 2013 in electing the moderate Hassan Rouhani as president over the hard-line candidates. | They have done it before. Iran’s vast middle classes feel they achieved a victory in 2013 in electing the moderate Hassan Rouhani as president over the hard-line candidates. |
| Q. Speaking of the president, how critical are the elections for him going forward? | |
| A. Mr. Rouhani came to power promising two things: a nuclear deal and subsequent relief from crushing economic sanctions; and some increases in personal liberties, more freedom on the Internet and other areas and relief from the morality police. He had hoped to capitalize on the momentum from the nuclear deal to win the support in Parliament to carry through on the second part of his promise. | |
| But with the vetting that has taken place in the selection of the candidates, the best he can hope for now is a strong minority of reformists and moderates in the new Parliament — and that is if Iran’s more liberal-leaning urbanites turn out in force. | But with the vetting that has taken place in the selection of the candidates, the best he can hope for now is a strong minority of reformists and moderates in the new Parliament — and that is if Iran’s more liberal-leaning urbanites turn out in force. |
| Many people in Tehran say that they do not know any of the reformists or moderate candidates, but that they will vote for their lists to minimize the strength of the hard-liners, in both Parliament and the Assembly of Experts. But even though the hard-liners have lost a lot of political support over the last decade, they remain entrenched in Iran’s nonelected centers of power: the clerical councils, security forces, and state television and radio. | |
| Q. What is the supreme leader’s role in the elections? Can he influence the outcome? | Q. What is the supreme leader’s role in the elections? Can he influence the outcome? |
| A. Ayatollah Khamenei, according to the Constitution, cannot decide to annul the vote, nor does he openly endorse any candidates. Parliament and the Assembly of Experts are officially independent powers, but Parliaments — particularly the departing one — take their cues from him. That said, the hard-liners have at times rebelled against Ayatollah Khamenei. The nuclear deal, which he orchestrated, was bitterly criticized by the hard-liners, who see the nuclear program as a nationalist issue and oppose any accommodation with the West. | A. Ayatollah Khamenei, according to the Constitution, cannot decide to annul the vote, nor does he openly endorse any candidates. Parliament and the Assembly of Experts are officially independent powers, but Parliaments — particularly the departing one — take their cues from him. That said, the hard-liners have at times rebelled against Ayatollah Khamenei. The nuclear deal, which he orchestrated, was bitterly criticized by the hard-liners, who see the nuclear program as a nationalist issue and oppose any accommodation with the West. |
| Ayatollah Khamenei’s powers are broad, but he needs to work within Iran’s byzantine and opaque political system, balancing power centers that are not always visible to outsiders. A keen politician and strategist, he has managed this infighting for over 25 years. At the same time, he has seen Iranian society change beyond recognition. Iran is one of the world’s youngest countries, and with the advent of social media and cheap international travel, it is not as isolated as it was in previous decades. That has created a chasm between the strongly anti-Western ideology and puritanical morality of the revolution and modern realities. | Ayatollah Khamenei’s powers are broad, but he needs to work within Iran’s byzantine and opaque political system, balancing power centers that are not always visible to outsiders. A keen politician and strategist, he has managed this infighting for over 25 years. At the same time, he has seen Iranian society change beyond recognition. Iran is one of the world’s youngest countries, and with the advent of social media and cheap international travel, it is not as isolated as it was in previous decades. That has created a chasm between the strongly anti-Western ideology and puritanical morality of the revolution and modern realities. |
| That said, it is the Guardian Council that has played the biggest role in shaping the elections by disqualifying thousands of candidates. While Ayatollah Khamenei appoints six of the 12 council members directly, it is unclear if he wields direct influence in the process. | That said, it is the Guardian Council that has played the biggest role in shaping the elections by disqualifying thousands of candidates. While Ayatollah Khamenei appoints six of the 12 council members directly, it is unclear if he wields direct influence in the process. |
| Q. Will the elections lead to any change in Iran’s relations with Western countries? | Q. Will the elections lead to any change in Iran’s relations with Western countries? |
| A. Yes and no. Ayatollah Khamenei has been adamant that the nuclear deal was not the first step in a broad reconciliation with the West. He was equally clear this week that he expected the new Parliament to have an anti-Western cast. | A. Yes and no. Ayatollah Khamenei has been adamant that the nuclear deal was not the first step in a broad reconciliation with the West. He was equally clear this week that he expected the new Parliament to have an anti-Western cast. |
| Iran’s foreign policy, firmly controlled by the supreme leader, also seems unlikely to change, with Tehran favoring relations with Russia, China and, to some extent, Europe. But it continues to rule out relations with the United States, and it will persist in seeking to advance Shiite interests as a dominant regional power. | Iran’s foreign policy, firmly controlled by the supreme leader, also seems unlikely to change, with Tehran favoring relations with Russia, China and, to some extent, Europe. But it continues to rule out relations with the United States, and it will persist in seeking to advance Shiite interests as a dominant regional power. |
| But a huge turnout for the moderate and reformist factions could change things. It might allow Mr. Rouhani to at least continue establishing relations with Europe with less pressure and obstacles raised by the hard-liners. His aim is to nurture more interaction with the West as part of a long-term strategy to lower the cultural and political barriers. | But a huge turnout for the moderate and reformist factions could change things. It might allow Mr. Rouhani to at least continue establishing relations with Europe with less pressure and obstacles raised by the hard-liners. His aim is to nurture more interaction with the West as part of a long-term strategy to lower the cultural and political barriers. |
| A hard-line victory would not endanger the nuclear deal, since Ayatollah Khamenei signed off on it. | A hard-line victory would not endanger the nuclear deal, since Ayatollah Khamenei signed off on it. |
| Q. When will we know the outcome? | Q. When will we know the outcome? |
| A. That is hard to say. Because of the complications presented by the list voting system, the indivdual winners will be identified slowly, perhaps beginning late Saturday and into Sunday, and maybe even as late as Monday. But even then, because there are no parties as such, it will still be hard to detect which faction did best. Early clues will come from the Tehran list, which is representative of the country’s dominant urban vote. |