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| Same tech, different result as states use internet to empower and control | Same tech, different result as states use internet to empower and control |
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| Expectations that the internet would automatically unlock equality and democracy in developing nations may have been utopian but the web can still be a powerful accelerator of change if combined with traditional pillars of development such as a favourable business climate and good governance. | Expectations that the internet would automatically unlock equality and democracy in developing nations may have been utopian but the web can still be a powerful accelerator of change if combined with traditional pillars of development such as a favourable business climate and good governance. |
| This was the conclusion drawn by a group of World Bank experts who examined the potential and limitations of the internet in a recent report, Digital Dividends. | This was the conclusion drawn by a group of World Bank experts who examined the potential and limitations of the internet in a recent report, Digital Dividends. |
| Related: Can democracy spread at the push of a button? | Stephen Abbott Pugh | Related: Can democracy spread at the push of a button? | Stephen Abbott Pugh |
| “I don’t think we should be disappointed. I think the hype was too much. We’ll get lots of the benefits but it will not take five years, but 50 years,” said Deepak Mishra, one of the co-authors of the report. | “I don’t think we should be disappointed. I think the hype was too much. We’ll get lots of the benefits but it will not take five years, but 50 years,” said Deepak Mishra, one of the co-authors of the report. |
| Because the internet first emerged and took hold in developed countries, where governments were already quite accountable and education was relatively widespread, it was heralded as an accelerator of growth and creator of jobs. | Because the internet first emerged and took hold in developed countries, where governments were already quite accountable and education was relatively widespread, it was heralded as an accelerator of growth and creator of jobs. |
| “There was this optimism that the same would happen in developing countries but some developing countries did not have … the same levels of education, they did not have regulations that create competition and allow entry of new businesses, they did not have such accountable governments, so it needs more work,” said Mishra. | “There was this optimism that the same would happen in developing countries but some developing countries did not have … the same levels of education, they did not have regulations that create competition and allow entry of new businesses, they did not have such accountable governments, so it needs more work,” said Mishra. |
| “The internet is an amplifier,” says Uwe Deichmann, another co-author. | “The internet is an amplifier,” says Uwe Deichmann, another co-author. |
| “If you have a willing government, the internet can make it more efficient and improve service delivery in all areas. What we haven’t seen so much is the internet managing to make unwilling governments more accountable,” he said. | “If you have a willing government, the internet can make it more efficient and improve service delivery in all areas. What we haven’t seen so much is the internet managing to make unwilling governments more accountable,” he said. |
| Perhaps surprisingly, the spread of the internet has coincided with a decline in what might be termed pure democracy. But while tech is clearly not a guarantor of fair elections, there is some correlation between tech-friendly societies and credible polls, says Mishra. | Perhaps surprisingly, the spread of the internet has coincided with a decline in what might be termed pure democracy. But while tech is clearly not a guarantor of fair elections, there is some correlation between tech-friendly societies and credible polls, says Mishra. |
| “If you look today, there are more democracies in the world … but the number of elections that are free and fair has actually declined. So [countries] are becoming nominal democracies … The elections are more sham, but if you look at the countries that are using tech in normal day-to-day life, they tend to have more credible elections,” he said. | “If you look today, there are more democracies in the world … but the number of elections that are free and fair has actually declined. So [countries] are becoming nominal democracies … The elections are more sham, but if you look at the countries that are using tech in normal day-to-day life, they tend to have more credible elections,” he said. |
| Both autocratic and democratic governments often embrace new technology, just for very different reasons. There is, of course, an economic imperative to be online. | Both autocratic and democratic governments often embrace new technology, just for very different reasons. There is, of course, an economic imperative to be online. |
| “The autocratic regimes are using [the internet] more to control citizens and increase surveillance, while democratic countries are using it more to empower citizens. It’s the same tech but it can have a completely different effect, depending on the accountability of the government,” Deichmann said. | “The autocratic regimes are using [the internet] more to control citizens and increase surveillance, while democratic countries are using it more to empower citizens. It’s the same tech but it can have a completely different effect, depending on the accountability of the government,” Deichmann said. |
| Governments know they cannot ignore the web because that would isolate them from the global information economy. As a result, some have become more sophisticated in calibrating their control. | Governments know they cannot ignore the web because that would isolate them from the global information economy. As a result, some have become more sophisticated in calibrating their control. |
| Despite these efforts, the world is likely to still experience a turbulent period because of the spread of information via the internet, Mishra says. | Despite these efforts, the world is likely to still experience a turbulent period because of the spread of information via the internet, Mishra says. |
| “We think in the next few years, we will have more Arab springs because people have access to information and they are not seeing the changes, because the politicians are unwilling to give citizens political space to become more empowered,” he said, adding this would continue until a new equilibrium was reached with politicians becoming reconciled to the digital age. | “We think in the next few years, we will have more Arab springs because people have access to information and they are not seeing the changes, because the politicians are unwilling to give citizens political space to become more empowered,” he said, adding this would continue until a new equilibrium was reached with politicians becoming reconciled to the digital age. |
| Another issue is that millions of people are still living outside the grid. | Another issue is that millions of people are still living outside the grid. |
| While the number of internet users has more than tripled over a decade – from 1 billion in 2005 to an estimated 3.2 billion at the end of 2015 – billions more remain shut out: some 4 billion people do not have any internet access, nearly 2 billion do not own a mobile phone, and almost half a billion live outside areas with a mobile signal. | While the number of internet users has more than tripled over a decade – from 1 billion in 2005 to an estimated 3.2 billion at the end of 2015 – billions more remain shut out: some 4 billion people do not have any internet access, nearly 2 billion do not own a mobile phone, and almost half a billion live outside areas with a mobile signal. |
| With nearly one fifth of the world’s population unable to read and write, it is clear that the spread of digital technology alone will not be enough to bridge the global knowledge divide. | With nearly one fifth of the world’s population unable to read and write, it is clear that the spread of digital technology alone will not be enough to bridge the global knowledge divide. |
| In developed economies, the internet can bring formerly marginalised groups in from the cold. But this can only happen if pre-existing biases – such as lack of education and low income – are eradicated. For the most vulnerable, the net can actually increase isolation by replicating real-world exclusion. | In developed economies, the internet can bring formerly marginalised groups in from the cold. But this can only happen if pre-existing biases – such as lack of education and low income – are eradicated. For the most vulnerable, the net can actually increase isolation by replicating real-world exclusion. |
| When online voting was used in a ballot on municipal budget proposals in Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul state, voter turnout increased by eight percentage points, but there were biases, the World Bank report showed. | |
| Related: Democrats v autocrats in Africa: is there a winning formula? – podcast | |
| “With the ability to vote over the internet, there is higher participation certainly but that participation is very strongly biased to those who are already better off, more educated, more connected and richer,” said Deichmann, noting this can be overturned if the authorities invest in education for the most marginalised. | “With the ability to vote over the internet, there is higher participation certainly but that participation is very strongly biased to those who are already better off, more educated, more connected and richer,” said Deichmann, noting this can be overturned if the authorities invest in education for the most marginalised. |
| Despite the limitations, technology can and has delivered real gains: nearly 900 million Indians have been issued with digital IDs in the past five years. This has enabled them to open bank accounts, as well as allowing the government to monitor attendance of civil servants and identify recipients of subsidies, the report said. In Nigeria, the advent of e-IDs led to the unmasking of 62,000 “ghost workers”, ultimately saving the state $1bn annually. | Despite the limitations, technology can and has delivered real gains: nearly 900 million Indians have been issued with digital IDs in the past five years. This has enabled them to open bank accounts, as well as allowing the government to monitor attendance of civil servants and identify recipients of subsidies, the report said. In Nigeria, the advent of e-IDs led to the unmasking of 62,000 “ghost workers”, ultimately saving the state $1bn annually. |
| For Deichmann, the real tech revolution will be piecemeal: “You have to start small – start with connectivity, and simple services that are not controversial for governments, like SMS reminders to take medicine … things that governments cannot object to, and then you gradually build up and once you have connectivity generally and build this new generation that is used to doing things online … You will gradually be able to push governments more and more.” | For Deichmann, the real tech revolution will be piecemeal: “You have to start small – start with connectivity, and simple services that are not controversial for governments, like SMS reminders to take medicine … things that governments cannot object to, and then you gradually build up and once you have connectivity generally and build this new generation that is used to doing things online … You will gradually be able to push governments more and more.” |
| For those hoping for a digital quick-fix to decades of corruption, unfair rule and exploitation in Africa, he is clear: “We really have to fix the institutions before we can leverage the technology.” | For those hoping for a digital quick-fix to decades of corruption, unfair rule and exploitation in Africa, he is clear: “We really have to fix the institutions before we can leverage the technology.” |