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| In Syria, Skepticism That Cease-Fire Will Stop Fighting | |
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| KILIS, Turkey — The morning after the United States and Russia agreed on a cease-fire plan in for Syria’s nearly five-year-old war, a dozen Syrians huddled at the border gate here on Friday delivered a unanimous verdict. Asked if the bombing would stop, they jerked their heads up and back in unison: Syrian for “No way.” | KILIS, Turkey — The morning after the United States and Russia agreed on a cease-fire plan in for Syria’s nearly five-year-old war, a dozen Syrians huddled at the border gate here on Friday delivered a unanimous verdict. Asked if the bombing would stop, they jerked their heads up and back in unison: Syrian for “No way.” |
| Waiting in a cold drizzle, the men, who had come to Turkey to earn money, were trying to cross the border back into Syria to bring their families out to safety. But they found themselves locked out, just as tens of thousands of civilians fleeing the most intense bombing of the war are locked in. | Waiting in a cold drizzle, the men, who had come to Turkey to earn money, were trying to cross the border back into Syria to bring their families out to safety. But they found themselves locked out, just as tens of thousands of civilians fleeing the most intense bombing of the war are locked in. |
| Forces backing President Bashar al-Assad continue to push north to the border, helped by Russian airstrikes. Western and Arab backers of insurgent groups are declining to increase military support. Turkey refuses to open the border. So the deal hammered out in Munich overnight seemed like just another irrelevant set of words dictated by diplomats in a foreign capital. | Forces backing President Bashar al-Assad continue to push north to the border, helped by Russian airstrikes. Western and Arab backers of insurgent groups are declining to increase military support. Turkey refuses to open the border. So the deal hammered out in Munich overnight seemed like just another irrelevant set of words dictated by diplomats in a foreign capital. |
| “The deals they make there are so isolated and detached from this reality here,” said Faisal, 25, who gave only a first name to protect relatives still inside Syria. | “The deals they make there are so isolated and detached from this reality here,” said Faisal, 25, who gave only a first name to protect relatives still inside Syria. |
| Mohammad Saeed, 27, pointed out that before Munich, there were three rounds of fruitless peace talks in Geneva, the last falling apart before it even began. “Geneva 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,” he said, counting on his fingers. “And there is nothing.” | Mohammad Saeed, 27, pointed out that before Munich, there were three rounds of fruitless peace talks in Geneva, the last falling apart before it even began. “Geneva 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,” he said, counting on his fingers. “And there is nothing.” |
| The men said the proposal would not stop the shooting, the scrambling from refuge to refuge, the fears of the Islamic State infiltrating rebel-held areas or the threat of government forces besieging more cities and town. Least of all did they expect it to stop the fierce Russian bombing campaign that has put so many civilians on the run in recent days. | The men said the proposal would not stop the shooting, the scrambling from refuge to refuge, the fears of the Islamic State infiltrating rebel-held areas or the threat of government forces besieging more cities and town. Least of all did they expect it to stop the fierce Russian bombing campaign that has put so many civilians on the run in recent days. |
| In Geneva, United Nations officials and diplomats were groping for details on Friday about the shape of a “humanitarian task force” the organization was charged with creating to immediately deliver aid inside Syria as part of the Munich agreement. As they discussed what the task force would do, the United Nations refugee agency reported that more than 80,000 migrants had arrived in Europe by boat over the last six weeks, more than half of them women and children. | In Geneva, United Nations officials and diplomats were groping for details on Friday about the shape of a “humanitarian task force” the organization was charged with creating to immediately deliver aid inside Syria as part of the Munich agreement. As they discussed what the task force would do, the United Nations refugee agency reported that more than 80,000 migrants had arrived in Europe by boat over the last six weeks, more than half of them women and children. |
| Agency officials said that some 2,000 people were still arriving daily in Greece, undeterred by the dangers of rough seas and winter weather that have resulted in more than 400 deaths. Nearly a quarter of the people who reached Greece in January were from Aleppo, the divided city that the Russian-backed Syrian government offensive seeks to bring completely under state control. | Agency officials said that some 2,000 people were still arriving daily in Greece, undeterred by the dangers of rough seas and winter weather that have resulted in more than 400 deaths. Nearly a quarter of the people who reached Greece in January were from Aleppo, the divided city that the Russian-backed Syrian government offensive seeks to bring completely under state control. |
| In the city of Aleppo, where roughly 400,000 people are still living in areas outside government control, international aid workers welcomed the news from Munich but also expressed deep skepticism about it. In a telephone news conference conducted by Save the Children, they also expressed concern that the one-week delay in the proposed cessation of hostilities would give all combatants more reason to escalate the fighting immediately. | In the city of Aleppo, where roughly 400,000 people are still living in areas outside government control, international aid workers welcomed the news from Munich but also expressed deep skepticism about it. In a telephone news conference conducted by Save the Children, they also expressed concern that the one-week delay in the proposed cessation of hostilities would give all combatants more reason to escalate the fighting immediately. |
| “Why wait a week?” asked Dalia al-Awqati, director of North Syria programs for Mercy Corps., who participated in the news conference. “What we’re seeing is shameful and morally unacceptable. It must end.” | “Why wait a week?” asked Dalia al-Awqati, director of North Syria programs for Mercy Corps., who participated in the news conference. “What we’re seeing is shameful and morally unacceptable. It must end.” |
| Here on the Turkish-Syrian border, several spokesmen for the insurgent groups the United States deems moderate enough to support dismissed the cease-fire plan as naïve and fanciful. They said it included a gigantic loophole — it allows airstrikes to continue against Islamic State and Nusra Front forces — that they expect Russia to exploit to continue pounding areas they control with scores, often hundreds of airstrikes per day. | Here on the Turkish-Syrian border, several spokesmen for the insurgent groups the United States deems moderate enough to support dismissed the cease-fire plan as naïve and fanciful. They said it included a gigantic loophole — it allows airstrikes to continue against Islamic State and Nusra Front forces — that they expect Russia to exploit to continue pounding areas they control with scores, often hundreds of airstrikes per day. |
| Both Russia and the United States consider the Islamic State and the Nusra Front to be terrorists. But the insurgent leaders say that Russia has made clear since it began its bombing campaign last fall that, like the Syrian government, it applies the “terrorist” label to virtually all the opposition to President Assad. | Both Russia and the United States consider the Islamic State and the Nusra Front to be terrorists. But the insurgent leaders say that Russia has made clear since it began its bombing campaign last fall that, like the Syrian government, it applies the “terrorist” label to virtually all the opposition to President Assad. |
| “Russia will continue bombing Nusra and Daesh,” said Yusef Farrouh, a fighter whose group receives ammunition and salaries from the United States and its allies, using the Arabic name for the Islamic State. “And we know what Russia means by ‘Nusra’ and ‘Daesh’ — us. | “Russia will continue bombing Nusra and Daesh,” said Yusef Farrouh, a fighter whose group receives ammunition and salaries from the United States and its allies, using the Arabic name for the Islamic State. “And we know what Russia means by ‘Nusra’ and ‘Daesh’ — us. |
| “If we thought Russia was bombing Nusra clearly and specifically,” he added, chuckling and throwing up his hands, “we would have moved away from them.” | “If we thought Russia was bombing Nusra clearly and specifically,” he added, chuckling and throwing up his hands, “we would have moved away from them.” |
| Mr. Farrouh said that rebel groups had rejected the proposed deal at a meeting he attended earlier this week in Ankara, the Turkish capital. The rough outlines of the cease-fire, he said, were laid out by Riad Hijab, the former Syrian prime minister who heads the opposition’s High Negotiations Committee. In attendance were representatives of rebel groups that receive support under a covert program run by the C.I.A., along with European and Arab allies. | Mr. Farrouh said that rebel groups had rejected the proposed deal at a meeting he attended earlier this week in Ankara, the Turkish capital. The rough outlines of the cease-fire, he said, were laid out by Riad Hijab, the former Syrian prime minister who heads the opposition’s High Negotiations Committee. In attendance were representatives of rebel groups that receive support under a covert program run by the C.I.A., along with European and Arab allies. |
| With the proviso that the Nusra Front, Al Qaeda’s branch in Syria, can still be bombed, Russia puts the United States in a difficult position; the insurgent groups it supports cooperate in some places with the well-armed, well-financed Nusra in what they say is a tactical alliance of necessity against government forces. So Russia can argue that many of them are, in effect, Nusra affiliates. | With the proviso that the Nusra Front, Al Qaeda’s branch in Syria, can still be bombed, Russia puts the United States in a difficult position; the insurgent groups it supports cooperate in some places with the well-armed, well-financed Nusra in what they say is a tactical alliance of necessity against government forces. So Russia can argue that many of them are, in effect, Nusra affiliates. |
| But insurgents say Russia has been also bombing groups that are nowhere near Nusra, including some that are fighting to hold back assaults by the Islamic State. Two weeks ago, Mr. Farrouh said, Russia unleashed fierce firepower on his hometown, Marea, which is held by his group, Safwa al-Islamiyya, and other Western-backed insurgents. | But insurgents say Russia has been also bombing groups that are nowhere near Nusra, including some that are fighting to hold back assaults by the Islamic State. Two weeks ago, Mr. Farrouh said, Russia unleashed fierce firepower on his hometown, Marea, which is held by his group, Safwa al-Islamiyya, and other Western-backed insurgents. |
| The town is surrounded on three sides by Islamic State fighters whose advances the rebels have repeatedly fought off, including an attack in which ISIS used mustard gas, wounding civilians. “Why are you bombing us?” said Mr. Farrouh, who sold curtains before the war. “Where should I go? Leave Syria, and leave all of Syria to Nusra to Russia can bomb them?” | The town is surrounded on three sides by Islamic State fighters whose advances the rebels have repeatedly fought off, including an attack in which ISIS used mustard gas, wounding civilians. “Why are you bombing us?” said Mr. Farrouh, who sold curtains before the war. “Where should I go? Leave Syria, and leave all of Syria to Nusra to Russia can bomb them?” |
| Ahmad Farrouh, a young antigovernment activist from Marea who fled the bombing and is now stuck on the Syrian side of the border, laughed at the announcement of the deal. “Russia will never have a cease-fire,” he said, “especially after the fall of our countryside — they will not stop.” | Ahmad Farrouh, a young antigovernment activist from Marea who fled the bombing and is now stuck on the Syrian side of the border, laughed at the announcement of the deal. “Russia will never have a cease-fire,” he said, “especially after the fall of our countryside — they will not stop.” |
| It remained unclear whether the Syrian government itself would welcome a cease-fire. On Thursday, hours before the Munich agreement was announced, Mr. Assad told Agence France-Presse that his government planned to retake the entire country in a war that could take “a long time.” | It remained unclear whether the Syrian government itself would welcome a cease-fire. On Thursday, hours before the Munich agreement was announced, Mr. Assad told Agence France-Presse that his government planned to retake the entire country in a war that could take “a long time.” |
| Earlier this week, an adviser to Mr. Assad, Bouthaina Shaaban, told Reuters that anyone backing a cease-fire wanted to “shore up” terrorist groups and “avoid the main thing that must be done, which is fighting terrorism.” | Earlier this week, an adviser to Mr. Assad, Bouthaina Shaaban, told Reuters that anyone backing a cease-fire wanted to “shore up” terrorist groups and “avoid the main thing that must be done, which is fighting terrorism.” |
| There was no immediate statement Friday on the plan from Syrian officials. Syria’s state-run news agency, SANA, simply posted statements from Secretary of State John F. Kerry and his Russian counterpart, Sergey V. Lavrov, saying that the fight against terrorists would continue. | There was no immediate statement Friday on the plan from Syrian officials. Syria’s state-run news agency, SANA, simply posted statements from Secretary of State John F. Kerry and his Russian counterpart, Sergey V. Lavrov, saying that the fight against terrorists would continue. |
| Samer, a resident of Houla, in the countryside north of Homs, who spoke on the condition that his full name not be used, said that insurgent groups there wanted a cease-fire, if it is was a real one. “The problem is the implementation,” he said. | Samer, a resident of Houla, in the countryside north of Homs, who spoke on the condition that his full name not be used, said that insurgent groups there wanted a cease-fire, if it is was a real one. “The problem is the implementation,” he said. |
| “Halting the military operation is good for us, but we never trust the regime, which might take the chance and might move its troops into another area and escalate,” Samer said. “I don’t want to have a cease-fire where the regime can move the battle into other areas. This is rejected.” | “Halting the military operation is good for us, but we never trust the regime, which might take the chance and might move its troops into another area and escalate,” Samer said. “I don’t want to have a cease-fire where the regime can move the battle into other areas. This is rejected.” |
| James Sadri, a leader of the Syria Campaign, an advocacy group pushing for a no-fly zone over Syria, said that if the “agreement means the end of sieges in Syria it will be welcome.” But, he said, “excluding Russian aerial attacks from a cease-fire is absurd.” | James Sadri, a leader of the Syria Campaign, an advocacy group pushing for a no-fly zone over Syria, said that if the “agreement means the end of sieges in Syria it will be welcome.” But, he said, “excluding Russian aerial attacks from a cease-fire is absurd.” |
| “Don’t expect celebration on the ground, because the lives of too many Syrian civilians have been ignored and too many people have been starved to death,” Mr. Sadri said in a statement. “Russia has become the No. 1 killer of civilians in Syria, killing more than the Assad regime, Al Qaeda and ISIS combined. If this proposed cease-fire doesn’t stop Russian warplanes from bombing hospitals and schools, then the U.S. and others shouldn’t pretend it’s a cease-fire.” | “Don’t expect celebration on the ground, because the lives of too many Syrian civilians have been ignored and too many people have been starved to death,” Mr. Sadri said in a statement. “Russia has become the No. 1 killer of civilians in Syria, killing more than the Assad regime, Al Qaeda and ISIS combined. If this proposed cease-fire doesn’t stop Russian warplanes from bombing hospitals and schools, then the U.S. and others shouldn’t pretend it’s a cease-fire.” |