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| Iran Plays Down Nuclear Deal’s Completion as It Prepares to Rejoin World Economy | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| TEHRAN — On the morning that crushing international sanctions against Iran were to be lifted, state television opened its hourly news program with an item on children’s vaccinations. There were no flag-waving youths or cheering crowds on Tehran’s streets, just the usual Saturday morning rush hour, the start of the Iranian workweek. | TEHRAN — On the morning that crushing international sanctions against Iran were to be lifted, state television opened its hourly news program with an item on children’s vaccinations. There were no flag-waving youths or cheering crowds on Tehran’s streets, just the usual Saturday morning rush hour, the start of the Iranian workweek. |
| The low-key reception given “implementation day,” when the nuclear deal is finally to be completed and Iran freed to rejoin the international economy, reflects the multiple disappointments and broken promises Iranians have experienced in the two years the negotiations dragged on. While the government talked up the deal to lift people’s hopes, few expect to see any improvement in their lives. | The low-key reception given “implementation day,” when the nuclear deal is finally to be completed and Iran freed to rejoin the international economy, reflects the multiple disappointments and broken promises Iranians have experienced in the two years the negotiations dragged on. While the government talked up the deal to lift people’s hopes, few expect to see any improvement in their lives. |
| “I haven’t seen any excitement,” said Ali Shoja, an office cleaner riding the Tehran subway on his way to work. “They speak of billions of dollars coming, but as in the past, I don’t expect those dollars to reach my pockets.” | “I haven’t seen any excitement,” said Ali Shoja, an office cleaner riding the Tehran subway on his way to work. “They speak of billions of dollars coming, but as in the past, I don’t expect those dollars to reach my pockets.” |
| Even the swap of six Iranians held in American prisons for the Washington Post reporter Jason Rezaian and three other Americans held here failed to stir up interest. | Even the swap of six Iranians held in American prisons for the Washington Post reporter Jason Rezaian and three other Americans held here failed to stir up interest. |
| State television has its own reason to play down the festivities. The end to the sanctions is a success for the government of Hassan Rouhani, but a costly one for Iran’s ruling system. Since the deal was signed in July, Iran has had to put into storage more than 12,000 centrifuges, ship out almost its entire stockpile of enriched uranium and remove the core of its heavy-water reactor. Many officials, especially hard-liners, find it hard to present the nuclear agreement as a victory, especially when so much was given up in compromise. | State television has its own reason to play down the festivities. The end to the sanctions is a success for the government of Hassan Rouhani, but a costly one for Iran’s ruling system. Since the deal was signed in July, Iran has had to put into storage more than 12,000 centrifuges, ship out almost its entire stockpile of enriched uranium and remove the core of its heavy-water reactor. Many officials, especially hard-liners, find it hard to present the nuclear agreement as a victory, especially when so much was given up in compromise. |
| “Nuclear burial,” the hard-line newspaper Vatan-e Emrouz wrote in a headline on its front page on Saturday, showing a picture of freshly poured concrete, similar to what replaced the core of the reactor. | “Nuclear burial,” the hard-line newspaper Vatan-e Emrouz wrote in a headline on its front page on Saturday, showing a picture of freshly poured concrete, similar to what replaced the core of the reactor. |
| The government, at odds with the hard-liners, prefers to focus on the economic gains Iran can expect now that sanctions, some in place since 2007, are to be lifted. Mr. Rouhani also emphasizes at almost every opportunity how, during his administration, Iran has stepped out of its isolation. | The government, at odds with the hard-liners, prefers to focus on the economic gains Iran can expect now that sanctions, some in place since 2007, are to be lifted. Mr. Rouhani also emphasizes at almost every opportunity how, during his administration, Iran has stepped out of its isolation. |
| And so it has. The German foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, is planning his second visit to the country; the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, will visit Tehran on Jan. 22; and Mr. Rouhani will visit Italy and France immediately after Mr. Xi leaves. | And so it has. The German foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, is planning his second visit to the country; the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, will visit Tehran on Jan. 22; and Mr. Rouhani will visit Italy and France immediately after Mr. Xi leaves. |
| At the center of the diplomatic activity stand the big rewards of the nuclear agreement — Iran’s vast natural resources, which go well beyond oil and gas, and access to one of the last untapped markets in the world. Several deals have already been made, and await only the lifting of the sanctions. | At the center of the diplomatic activity stand the big rewards of the nuclear agreement — Iran’s vast natural resources, which go well beyond oil and gas, and access to one of the last untapped markets in the world. Several deals have already been made, and await only the lifting of the sanctions. |
| Mr. Rouhani likes to call the deal a “win-win” for both sides, though conservatives in both Iran and the United States say it is more win-lose, with the other side winning. Whatever the outcome of that debate, Iran indisputably will once again be able to sell its oil and make international financial transactions. But as Europe and Asia gear up for their share of the bonanza, businesses in the United States, the main broker of the nuclear agreement, will mostly be watching from the sidelines. | Mr. Rouhani likes to call the deal a “win-win” for both sides, though conservatives in both Iran and the United States say it is more win-lose, with the other side winning. Whatever the outcome of that debate, Iran indisputably will once again be able to sell its oil and make international financial transactions. But as Europe and Asia gear up for their share of the bonanza, businesses in the United States, the main broker of the nuclear agreement, will mostly be watching from the sidelines. |
| Iran’s appetite for investments and imports goes beyond its oil and gas industry, though officials there have said that they need at least $150 billion and possibly much more to keep crude oil flowing in the coming decades. “Basically we need everything: hundreds of planes, new ports, an update of our infrastructure,” said Saeed Laylaz, an economist close to Mr. Rouhani’s government. | Iran’s appetite for investments and imports goes beyond its oil and gas industry, though officials there have said that they need at least $150 billion and possibly much more to keep crude oil flowing in the coming decades. “Basically we need everything: hundreds of planes, new ports, an update of our infrastructure,” said Saeed Laylaz, an economist close to Mr. Rouhani’s government. |
| American companies are showing interest, but sanctions dating back to 1984, when Iran was designated a state sponsor of terrorism, force them to work through subsidiaries. Because of that, one analyst predicted, European and Asian companies will divvy up the Iranian market. | American companies are showing interest, but sanctions dating back to 1984, when Iran was designated a state sponsor of terrorism, force them to work through subsidiaries. Because of that, one analyst predicted, European and Asian companies will divvy up the Iranian market. |
| American companies “will wait at least until after the U.S. presidential elections” before making any serious moves, to see who wins, said Cyrus Razzaghi, the president of Ara Enterprise group, a Tehran-based business consultancy. The risk of a Republican winning and reimposing harsh sanctions, he said, was too great. “In reality, any American company will only come a year later.” | American companies “will wait at least until after the U.S. presidential elections” before making any serious moves, to see who wins, said Cyrus Razzaghi, the president of Ara Enterprise group, a Tehran-based business consultancy. The risk of a Republican winning and reimposing harsh sanctions, he said, was too great. “In reality, any American company will only come a year later.” |
| It might take even longer, given the hodgepodge of sanctions still in place and removable only by a Republican-dominated Congress that has no interest in lifting them. | It might take even longer, given the hodgepodge of sanctions still in place and removable only by a Republican-dominated Congress that has no interest in lifting them. |
| With some exceptions, there is still an American trade embargo with Iran, largely preventing most Americans from doing business with Iran and vice versa. While Iranian financial institutions will once again have access to the international banking system, they generally cannot use it to conduct transactions that go to — or even through — the United States, as many major financial transactions now do. | With some exceptions, there is still an American trade embargo with Iran, largely preventing most Americans from doing business with Iran and vice versa. While Iranian financial institutions will once again have access to the international banking system, they generally cannot use it to conduct transactions that go to — or even through — the United States, as many major financial transactions now do. |
| “Iran was under sanctions before the nuclear issue came about, and the window of business that the United States will be able to do with Iran will remain quite narrow, almost as narrow as it is now,” said Farhad Alavi, the managing partner of the Akrivis Law Group, a Washington firm that specializes in sanctions law and export controls. | “Iran was under sanctions before the nuclear issue came about, and the window of business that the United States will be able to do with Iran will remain quite narrow, almost as narrow as it is now,” said Farhad Alavi, the managing partner of the Akrivis Law Group, a Washington firm that specializes in sanctions law and export controls. |
| Even after implementation day, a complicated maze of exceptions to the remaining American sanctions rules will still “give much pause” to United States businesses, Mr. Alavi said. | Even after implementation day, a complicated maze of exceptions to the remaining American sanctions rules will still “give much pause” to United States businesses, Mr. Alavi said. |
| Iran complied with the requirements of the nuclear deal at breakneck speed, something that analysts attributed to Mr. Rouhani’s wish to bring that triumph to critical parliamentary elections in February. But there was another reason. Insiders admit that the government is near bankruptcy, after years of burning up savings, and that the economy has all but ground to a halt. | Iran complied with the requirements of the nuclear deal at breakneck speed, something that analysts attributed to Mr. Rouhani’s wish to bring that triumph to critical parliamentary elections in February. But there was another reason. Insiders admit that the government is near bankruptcy, after years of burning up savings, and that the economy has all but ground to a halt. |
| Iranians see the signs everywhere. “My husband owns a shop for ladies’ coats, and he hasn’t sold a thing in the past few weeks,” said Mojgan Faraji, an unemployed former journalist. The implementation of the deal will “mostly have a positive psychological impact,” she said. “After that, we’d have to wait to see whether purchasing power will increase.” | Iranians see the signs everywhere. “My husband owns a shop for ladies’ coats, and he hasn’t sold a thing in the past few weeks,” said Mojgan Faraji, an unemployed former journalist. The implementation of the deal will “mostly have a positive psychological impact,” she said. “After that, we’d have to wait to see whether purchasing power will increase.” |
| Under the weight of the sanctions, declining oil sales and, lately, declining oil prices, Tehran has been forced to scrap direct cash handouts for some of the wealthier strata of society. Middle-class Iranians, hurt by inflation that only recently declined from 42 percent to 12 percent, wonder whether the rate has really dropped as far as the government has been saying. | Under the weight of the sanctions, declining oil sales and, lately, declining oil prices, Tehran has been forced to scrap direct cash handouts for some of the wealthier strata of society. Middle-class Iranians, hurt by inflation that only recently declined from 42 percent to 12 percent, wonder whether the rate has really dropped as far as the government has been saying. |
| “What is getting cheaper, tell me?” one housewife could be overheard saying in a Tehran taxi last week. Gasoline and utilities have become more expensive, as have rents. Housing prices have gone down recently, the Tehran real estate organization has said. But a slump in sales was also reported. | “What is getting cheaper, tell me?” one housewife could be overheard saying in a Tehran taxi last week. Gasoline and utilities have become more expensive, as have rents. Housing prices have gone down recently, the Tehran real estate organization has said. But a slump in sales was also reported. |
| Few think the lifting of sanctions will mean an overnight improvement in their financial situation. Cynicism has the upper hand, after years of what many say were empty promises of improvement. | Few think the lifting of sanctions will mean an overnight improvement in their financial situation. Cynicism has the upper hand, after years of what many say were empty promises of improvement. |
| “I do not follow the nuclear news,” said Ali Baseri, a 45-year-old printing-house worker who was taking his father to the hospital. “How will this solve my economic problems? I do not care, and I don’t see anybody around me caring.” | “I do not follow the nuclear news,” said Ali Baseri, a 45-year-old printing-house worker who was taking his father to the hospital. “How will this solve my economic problems? I do not care, and I don’t see anybody around me caring.” |
| Many point to the drop in oil prices. Historically, oil sales have provided a third to a half of the government’s annual budget expenditures. But the price collapse now endangers that. | Many point to the drop in oil prices. Historically, oil sales have provided a third to a half of the government’s annual budget expenditures. But the price collapse now endangers that. |
| Iran itself will contribute to the problem after sanctions are lifted, adding 500,000 barrels a day on top of the approximately 1.2 million barrels now being produced daily. The aim, the oil minister, Bijan Zangeneh, has repeatedly said, is to eventually return to the former production capacity of 4 million barrels a day. | Iran itself will contribute to the problem after sanctions are lifted, adding 500,000 barrels a day on top of the approximately 1.2 million barrels now being produced daily. The aim, the oil minister, Bijan Zangeneh, has repeatedly said, is to eventually return to the former production capacity of 4 million barrels a day. |
| “Iran is determined and will be able to fulfill its wish to increase the export of oil and gas, even if the oil price drops to $5 per barrel,” Farshad Ghorbanpour, an analyst, said. He also pointed out that after implementation, Iran’s fleet of oil tankers could once again get international insurance and start working. “The deal will bring the country income, and that is what we need,” he said. | “Iran is determined and will be able to fulfill its wish to increase the export of oil and gas, even if the oil price drops to $5 per barrel,” Farshad Ghorbanpour, an analyst, said. He also pointed out that after implementation, Iran’s fleet of oil tankers could once again get international insurance and start working. “The deal will bring the country income, and that is what we need,” he said. |
| The end of the sanctions will also give a lift to trade and commerce. “Now, we have over 1,000 letters of credit waiting to be accepted by international banks,” said Hamidreza Taraghi, a political commentator with close ties to the government. “We are expecting a big boost for our companies.” | The end of the sanctions will also give a lift to trade and commerce. “Now, we have over 1,000 letters of credit waiting to be accepted by international banks,” said Hamidreza Taraghi, a political commentator with close ties to the government. “We are expecting a big boost for our companies.” |
| Mr. Razzaghi, the consultant, said he was entertaining representatives from a Turkish company who are thinking of investing over $100 million in food processing operations. He also said that a European bank had shown interest in investigating the potential purchase of a midsize Iranian bank. | Mr. Razzaghi, the consultant, said he was entertaining representatives from a Turkish company who are thinking of investing over $100 million in food processing operations. He also said that a European bank had shown interest in investigating the potential purchase of a midsize Iranian bank. |
| “But that would be a long process, maybe two to three years,” he said. “What matters is that after the implementation things will start moving.” | “But that would be a long process, maybe two to three years,” he said. “What matters is that after the implementation things will start moving.” |