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| North Korea Claims It Tested Hydrogen Bomb but Is Doubted | North Korea Claims It Tested Hydrogen Bomb but Is Doubted |
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| SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea’s declaration on Wednesday that it had detonated a hydrogen bomb for the first time was the latest destabilizing move from one of the world’s most isolated and unpredictable countries. | |
| Britain, China, France, Japan, the United States, the European Union and NATO, among others, immediately condemned the announcement. The United Nations Security Council scheduled an emergency meeting in New York to consider its response, and whether that could include expanding sanctions. | |
| But officials and analysts in South Korea quickly cast doubt on the North’s claim, saying that the seismological data from the impact was more in keeping with that of an atomic device. | But officials and analysts in South Korea quickly cast doubt on the North’s claim, saying that the seismological data from the impact was more in keeping with that of an atomic device. |
| For one thing, they said, the estimated yield, or energy, from the explosion appeared to be too small to be that of a hydrogen bomb. The North might instead have tested a so-called boosted-fission bomb — which involves placing a tiny amount of tritium, a radioactive form of hydrogen, at the core of an atomic bomb, but is more destructive than a traditional nuclear weapon. | For one thing, they said, the estimated yield, or energy, from the explosion appeared to be too small to be that of a hydrogen bomb. The North might instead have tested a so-called boosted-fission bomb — which involves placing a tiny amount of tritium, a radioactive form of hydrogen, at the core of an atomic bomb, but is more destructive than a traditional nuclear weapon. |
| Lee Cheol-woo, a member of the intelligence committee of the South Korean National Assembly, said his country’s National Intelligence Service had estimated the explosive yield that was equivalent to six kilotons of TNT. (By comparison, the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945 exploded with 15 kilotons of energy.) | Lee Cheol-woo, a member of the intelligence committee of the South Korean National Assembly, said his country’s National Intelligence Service had estimated the explosive yield that was equivalent to six kilotons of TNT. (By comparison, the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945 exploded with 15 kilotons of energy.) |
| A hydrogen bomb would have yielded “hundreds of kilotons or, even if it is a failed test, tens of kilotons,” Mr. Lee told reporters. The North’s last nuclear test, in February 2013, set off a magnitude 4.9 tremor. The South estimated that the bomb detonated on Wednesday resulted in a magnitude 4.8 seismic event, smaller than the 4.9 to 5.2 range that American, European and Chinese authorities had reported. | A hydrogen bomb would have yielded “hundreds of kilotons or, even if it is a failed test, tens of kilotons,” Mr. Lee told reporters. The North’s last nuclear test, in February 2013, set off a magnitude 4.9 tremor. The South estimated that the bomb detonated on Wednesday resulted in a magnitude 4.8 seismic event, smaller than the 4.9 to 5.2 range that American, European and Chinese authorities had reported. |
| Park Ji-young, a senior analyst at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul, said she believed that the bomb was a boosted-fission weapon, in part because the nuclear test site was not suitable for a gigantic explosion like that of a hydrogen bomb. “Countries like the United States and Russia did their H-bomb tests in very remote places,” she said. | Park Ji-young, a senior analyst at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul, said she believed that the bomb was a boosted-fission weapon, in part because the nuclear test site was not suitable for a gigantic explosion like that of a hydrogen bomb. “Countries like the United States and Russia did their H-bomb tests in very remote places,” she said. |
| Karl Dewey, an analyst for IHS Jane’s, was similarly skeptical. “It is highly likely that rather than a thermonuclear explosion, the claim of a hydrogen bomb is disinformation by the North Korean regime,” he said in an email. A hydrogen bomb would most likely involve a fuel called lithium deuteride, he said, “and it is not known if North Korea has the infrastructure to produce such material.” | Karl Dewey, an analyst for IHS Jane’s, was similarly skeptical. “It is highly likely that rather than a thermonuclear explosion, the claim of a hydrogen bomb is disinformation by the North Korean regime,” he said in an email. A hydrogen bomb would most likely involve a fuel called lithium deuteride, he said, “and it is not known if North Korea has the infrastructure to produce such material.” |
| In Seoul, President Park Geun-hye convened an urgent meeting of her top national security aides. As South Korea’s military increased its vigilance along the heavily militarized border with the North, its diplomats rushed to discuss with allies what Ms. Park called “strong sanctions” against Pyongyang. | In Seoul, President Park Geun-hye convened an urgent meeting of her top national security aides. As South Korea’s military increased its vigilance along the heavily militarized border with the North, its diplomats rushed to discuss with allies what Ms. Park called “strong sanctions” against Pyongyang. |
| She said that Pyongyang’s claim, if true, “could potentially shake up the security landscape of Northeast Asia and fundamentally change the nature of the North Korean nuclear threat.” | She said that Pyongyang’s claim, if true, “could potentially shake up the security landscape of Northeast Asia and fundamentally change the nature of the North Korean nuclear threat.” |
| Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan called the test “totally unacceptable” and “a grave threat to Japan’s security,” and he called on the Security Council to take “firm measures.” | Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan called the test “totally unacceptable” and “a grave threat to Japan’s security,” and he called on the Security Council to take “firm measures.” |
| Pyongyang’s sole major ally, China, has been increasingly impatient with the North’s behavior and did not hide its displeasure on Wednesday. “Today, despite the opposition of the international community, North Korea carried out a nuclear test,” Hua Chunying, a spokeswoman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said at a news conference in Beijing. “China is strongly against this act.” | Pyongyang’s sole major ally, China, has been increasingly impatient with the North’s behavior and did not hide its displeasure on Wednesday. “Today, despite the opposition of the international community, North Korea carried out a nuclear test,” Hua Chunying, a spokeswoman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said at a news conference in Beijing. “China is strongly against this act.” |
| But so far, Beijing has not been willing to totally cut off Pyongyang. “China may strongly criticize the North, but once the issue arrives at the Security Council, it will focus on preventing sanctions that can affect the stability of the North Korean regime,” said Chun Yung-woo, a senior adviser at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul and a former top negotiator for South Korea in nuclear talks with the North. “North Korea knows it too well.” | But so far, Beijing has not been willing to totally cut off Pyongyang. “China may strongly criticize the North, but once the issue arrives at the Security Council, it will focus on preventing sanctions that can affect the stability of the North Korean regime,” said Chun Yung-woo, a senior adviser at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul and a former top negotiator for South Korea in nuclear talks with the North. “North Korea knows it too well.” |
| China, Japan, Russia and the United States, along with the Koreas, are parties in the long-suspended six-nation talks aimed at ending the North’s nuclear weapons program. At a summit meeting in Washington in October, Ms. Park and President Obama urged Pyongyang to rejoin those negotiations and warned against a fourth nuclear test. But North Korea insisted that the United States first agree to negotiate a peace treaty with the North to replace the armistice that ended the Korean War in 1953. | China, Japan, Russia and the United States, along with the Koreas, are parties in the long-suspended six-nation talks aimed at ending the North’s nuclear weapons program. At a summit meeting in Washington in October, Ms. Park and President Obama urged Pyongyang to rejoin those negotiations and warned against a fourth nuclear test. But North Korea insisted that the United States first agree to negotiate a peace treaty with the North to replace the armistice that ended the Korean War in 1953. |
| The content and timing of the North’s announcement came largely as a surprise, though Pyongyang’s seemingly erratic behavior may be part of a calculated strategy to raise the stakes in any negotiations with the South and with the United States, and to bolster Mr. Kim’s reputation at home before an important party meeting. | The content and timing of the North’s announcement came largely as a surprise, though Pyongyang’s seemingly erratic behavior may be part of a calculated strategy to raise the stakes in any negotiations with the South and with the United States, and to bolster Mr. Kim’s reputation at home before an important party meeting. |
| Last month, Mr. Kim claimed for the first time that his country was ready to explode a hydrogen bomb, and in a New Year’s Day speech, he called for “modernized” and “more diverse means of military strike.” Still, the speech did not specifically mention nuclear weapons, and it also emphasized the need to improve living standards, so few if any officials or analysts had seen the test coming. | Last month, Mr. Kim claimed for the first time that his country was ready to explode a hydrogen bomb, and in a New Year’s Day speech, he called for “modernized” and “more diverse means of military strike.” Still, the speech did not specifically mention nuclear weapons, and it also emphasized the need to improve living standards, so few if any officials or analysts had seen the test coming. |
| “This raises skepticism about our intelligence-gathering capabilities,” said Kim Dong-yup, an analyst at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul. | “This raises skepticism about our intelligence-gathering capabilities,” said Kim Dong-yup, an analyst at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul. |
| Since inheriting power after the death of his father, Kim Jong-il, in late 2011, Mr. Kim has purged top members of his party and of the military elite — and he has proved to be more ambitious than his father in the pursuit of long-range missiles and nuclear weapons, even in the face of warnings from China. | Since inheriting power after the death of his father, Kim Jong-il, in late 2011, Mr. Kim has purged top members of his party and of the military elite — and he has proved to be more ambitious than his father in the pursuit of long-range missiles and nuclear weapons, even in the face of warnings from China. |
| Under Mr. Kim, North Korea lunched two long-range rockets, putting a satellite into orbit in the second attempt, in December 2012. The same year, the North revised its Constitution to declare itself a nuclear power. Two months after the North’s third — and Mr. Kim’s first — nuclear test, in February 2013, his Workers’ Party adopted a new national strategy: growing its nuclear arsenal and rebuilding its economy at the same time. | Under Mr. Kim, North Korea lunched two long-range rockets, putting a satellite into orbit in the second attempt, in December 2012. The same year, the North revised its Constitution to declare itself a nuclear power. Two months after the North’s third — and Mr. Kim’s first — nuclear test, in February 2013, his Workers’ Party adopted a new national strategy: growing its nuclear arsenal and rebuilding its economy at the same time. |
| Mr. Kim wants his people to consider nuclear weapons the linchpin of their survival, but Washington and Seoul have repeatedly warned that the North’s nuclear ambitions would only deepen its isolation. | Mr. Kim wants his people to consider nuclear weapons the linchpin of their survival, but Washington and Seoul have repeatedly warned that the North’s nuclear ambitions would only deepen its isolation. |
| “The benefits of being a nuclear power — to deter external threats and prove strength domestically — must in his mind outweigh the costs of facing yet another round of condemnation and sanctions, which Pyongyang is used to by now,” said John Delury, a North Korea expert at Yonsei University in Seoul. “So with this test, he projects power and claims to enhance national security.” | “The benefits of being a nuclear power — to deter external threats and prove strength domestically — must in his mind outweigh the costs of facing yet another round of condemnation and sanctions, which Pyongyang is used to by now,” said John Delury, a North Korea expert at Yonsei University in Seoul. “So with this test, he projects power and claims to enhance national security.” |
| The Workers’ Party is scheduled to hold its first full-fledged congress since 1980 this May. With no big improvements in the lives of North Koreans, Mr. Kim needs something else to show for his four-year-old rule. | The Workers’ Party is scheduled to hold its first full-fledged congress since 1980 this May. With no big improvements in the lives of North Koreans, Mr. Kim needs something else to show for his four-year-old rule. |
| “The biggest achievement Kim Jong-un can offer ahead of the party congress is his nuclear program,” said Choi Kang, vice president of the Asan Institute. “It also means that things don’t look good in the economic sector.” | “The biggest achievement Kim Jong-un can offer ahead of the party congress is his nuclear program,” said Choi Kang, vice president of the Asan Institute. “It also means that things don’t look good in the economic sector.” |
| Cheong Seong-chang, a North Korea specialist at the Sejong Institute in South Korea, said the North had made its hydrogen bomb claim to position itself in he United States presidential campaign and, perhaps, to enter negotiations with the next administration with increased leverage. | Cheong Seong-chang, a North Korea specialist at the Sejong Institute in South Korea, said the North had made its hydrogen bomb claim to position itself in he United States presidential campaign and, perhaps, to enter negotiations with the next administration with increased leverage. |
| In recent years, it has become increasingly clear from the North’s pronouncements that its ultimate goal is to cement its status as a nuclear power, and to use that position to haggle with Washington and its allies to win diplomatic recognition and other concessions. | In recent years, it has become increasingly clear from the North’s pronouncements that its ultimate goal is to cement its status as a nuclear power, and to use that position to haggle with Washington and its allies to win diplomatic recognition and other concessions. |
| “There can neither be suspended nuclear development nor nuclear dismantlement on the part of the North unless the U.S. has rolled back its vicious hostile policy toward the former,” North Korea said in a brief announcement on Wednesday. It said Mr. Kim had made up his mind last month to conduct the hydrogen bomb test, and had signed a final order on Sunday. | |
| Mr. Chun, the former negotiator, warned that it would be a mistake for Washington and Seoul to rely on China using its economic leverage to force North Korea to change course. He said the North would budge only if the United States and its allies put in place sanctions strong enough to threaten its survival, like denying port calls for ships carrying North Korean cargo. | Mr. Chun, the former negotiator, warned that it would be a mistake for Washington and Seoul to rely on China using its economic leverage to force North Korea to change course. He said the North would budge only if the United States and its allies put in place sanctions strong enough to threaten its survival, like denying port calls for ships carrying North Korean cargo. |
| China, a permanent member of the Security Council, could veto any additional sanctions. | China, a permanent member of the Security Council, could veto any additional sanctions. |