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| Election Results in Spain Are a Stinging End to Europe’s Year | Election Results in Spain Are a Stinging End to Europe’s Year |
| (about 3 hours later) | |
| BERLIN — With the results of Spain’s election on Sunday, a tumultuous 2015 for Europe is ending on a stinging note that underscores Germany’s increasing isolation and Europe’s deepening division. | |
| Spain’s voters followed those in Portugal and Greece this year in punishing a conservative government that had allied with Brussels, Berlin and international creditors in carrying out the austerity policies pushed as the solution to Europe’s debt crisis. | Spain’s voters followed those in Portugal and Greece this year in punishing a conservative government that had allied with Brussels, Berlin and international creditors in carrying out the austerity policies pushed as the solution to Europe’s debt crisis. |
| In 2016, that trio of powers will have fewer friends to turn to. Successive elections have helped to hollow out the political center in Europe, raising the question of what will keep the 19 countries that use the euro and the nine other members of the European Union that do not marching forward together. | |
| After the Spanish vote, Italy’s prime minister, Matteo Renzi, a center-leftist who had built a good relationship with Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, renewed his attack on austerity and, quite nearly, Ms. Merkel personally, effectively blaming her policies for the rise of populism across Europe. | After the Spanish vote, Italy’s prime minister, Matteo Renzi, a center-leftist who had built a good relationship with Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, renewed his attack on austerity and, quite nearly, Ms. Merkel personally, effectively blaming her policies for the rise of populism across Europe. |
| “We have to be frank,” Mr. Renzi told The Financial Times. “Europe has to serve all 28 countries, not just one.” | |
| The disgruntlement added to the sense of isolation that has been building in Berlin over a migration crisis and Germany’s economic prescriptions, as well as the near-shredding of European unity that the year had already brought. | The disgruntlement added to the sense of isolation that has been building in Berlin over a migration crisis and Germany’s economic prescriptions, as well as the near-shredding of European unity that the year had already brought. |
| The postelection muddle in Spain was yet another setback in a year of cascading crises, said Charles Grant, director of the Center for European Reform, a research group in London. | The postelection muddle in Spain was yet another setback in a year of cascading crises, said Charles Grant, director of the Center for European Reform, a research group in London. |
| “It has been an annus horribilis,” Mr. Grant said, noting that decades of European political stability built on strong political parties were crumbling as upstart political forces like Podemos, a leftist movement that finished third in Spain, challenge the old order. | “It has been an annus horribilis,” Mr. Grant said, noting that decades of European political stability built on strong political parties were crumbling as upstart political forces like Podemos, a leftist movement that finished third in Spain, challenge the old order. |
| “This is the end of the bipolar era in Spain,” said François Lafond, the executive director of EuropaNova, a research group based in Paris. “The same thing is happening in France, in Italy and other countries. We now have a fragmented political system all around Europe.” | “This is the end of the bipolar era in Spain,” said François Lafond, the executive director of EuropaNova, a research group based in Paris. “The same thing is happening in France, in Italy and other countries. We now have a fragmented political system all around Europe.” |
| The Spanish election results mirror the increasing disarray in the European Union itself, and thus pose perhaps the gravest challenge for Germany, which has risen for decades as Europe’s No. 1 power by presenting its policies as European, rather than German, goals. | The Spanish election results mirror the increasing disarray in the European Union itself, and thus pose perhaps the gravest challenge for Germany, which has risen for decades as Europe’s No. 1 power by presenting its policies as European, rather than German, goals. |
| “We are pretty much isolated on the refugee question,” said Sylke Tempel of the German Council on Foreign Relations. But “it’s not just austerity, or the refugees,” she said. “It’s a bigger thing.” | “We are pretty much isolated on the refugee question,” said Sylke Tempel of the German Council on Foreign Relations. But “it’s not just austerity, or the refugees,” she said. “It’s a bigger thing.” |
| Europe’s rising populist parties are “about to throw away everything we have built over the last decades,” Ms. Tempel said. This means the European Union urgently needs to convince disillusioned publics that it is relevant, and necessary. | Europe’s rising populist parties are “about to throw away everything we have built over the last decades,” Ms. Tempel said. This means the European Union urgently needs to convince disillusioned publics that it is relevant, and necessary. |
| Germany’s foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, a committed European, conceded in an interview in the current issue of Der Spiegel that “the refugee crisis has mercilessly exposed the rifts in Europe” when “the results of the financial crisis are long not overcome.” | Germany’s foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, a committed European, conceded in an interview in the current issue of Der Spiegel that “the refugee crisis has mercilessly exposed the rifts in Europe” when “the results of the financial crisis are long not overcome.” |
| The mantra of members of the European elite like him has long been that the Continent emerges more unified from each of its many crises. But even Mr. Steinmeier admitted that “it is not easy” to trust in that history these days. | The mantra of members of the European elite like him has long been that the Continent emerges more unified from each of its many crises. But even Mr. Steinmeier admitted that “it is not easy” to trust in that history these days. |
| With the right-wing populist Freedom Party of Austria surging to No. 1 in polls, the country’s chancellor, Werner Faymann, a Social Democrat, suggested in an interview this month that the best way for established parties to win votes was not by austerity, but by kick-starting the anemic European economy. | With the right-wing populist Freedom Party of Austria surging to No. 1 in polls, the country’s chancellor, Werner Faymann, a Social Democrat, suggested in an interview this month that the best way for established parties to win votes was not by austerity, but by kick-starting the anemic European economy. |
| “The best thing is if somebody who is unemployed today gets a job again. And that is not the case for 24 million people in Europe at present,” Mr. Faymann said. “In some regions, that is not the case for more than half the young people. And perhaps just as big a number again cannot live decently from what they earn.” | “The best thing is if somebody who is unemployed today gets a job again. And that is not the case for 24 million people in Europe at present,” Mr. Faymann said. “In some regions, that is not the case for more than half the young people. And perhaps just as big a number again cannot live decently from what they earn.” |
| Popular unhappiness with Europe has helped create a space filled by insurgents on the right like the nationalist Marine Le Pen in France. With memories of Fascism still strong in Spain, Greece and Portugal, it is the radical left that has surged there. | Popular unhappiness with Europe has helped create a space filled by insurgents on the right like the nationalist Marine Le Pen in France. With memories of Fascism still strong in Spain, Greece and Portugal, it is the radical left that has surged there. |
| Membership in mainstream political parties is slumping across Europe. A study led by a researcher at the University of Leiden in the Netherlands found that mainstream parties in France, Italy and Britain had lost about two-thirds of their members since the 1990s. | |
| Mr. Lafond, the Paris research group head, said this disenchantment with traditional parties reflected a mood of angry impotence as the real power to shape events largely shifted from national political leaders to the market, the institutions of the European Union and corporations. | Mr. Lafond, the Paris research group head, said this disenchantment with traditional parties reflected a mood of angry impotence as the real power to shape events largely shifted from national political leaders to the market, the institutions of the European Union and corporations. |
| “The world is getting more and more complicated, but political leaders have less and less impact on reality,” he said, adding that this left voters open to populists’ promises to beat back what they present as anti-democratic forces of Brussels technocrats and global financiers. | “The world is getting more and more complicated, but political leaders have less and less impact on reality,” he said, adding that this left voters open to populists’ promises to beat back what they present as anti-democratic forces of Brussels technocrats and global financiers. |
| Outside Greece, where Syriza, a coalition of radical leftists, swept to power in January, Europe’s political insurgents are not strong enough to win elections outright. But, as may happen in Spain, they can paralyze the formation of stable governments. | Outside Greece, where Syriza, a coalition of radical leftists, swept to power in January, Europe’s political insurgents are not strong enough to win elections outright. But, as may happen in Spain, they can paralyze the formation of stable governments. |
| Similarly, local politics has repeatedly swamped the dry minutiae of Brussels technocrats, most notably in Greece, where the Syriza government threatened to tear up fiscal targets agreed to by its predecessor. After months of acrimonious confrontation, Greece agreed in July to even harsher terms for a new bailout. | Similarly, local politics has repeatedly swamped the dry minutiae of Brussels technocrats, most notably in Greece, where the Syriza government threatened to tear up fiscal targets agreed to by its predecessor. After months of acrimonious confrontation, Greece agreed in July to even harsher terms for a new bailout. |
| Guntram B. Wolff, director of Bruegel, a research group, and a former official in the European Commission, cautioned that austerity, though an easy target for political insurgents, had been overblown as a reason for Europe’s political disarray when there is also intense alarm over migration and economic globalization. | Guntram B. Wolff, director of Bruegel, a research group, and a former official in the European Commission, cautioned that austerity, though an easy target for political insurgents, had been overblown as a reason for Europe’s political disarray when there is also intense alarm over migration and economic globalization. |
| “I don’t think you can blame austerity for this. If you look at the facts, austerity is basically over,” Mr. Wolff said, noting that the European Commission, the union’s executive arm in Brussels, had steadily let up the pressure for spending cuts. | “I don’t think you can blame austerity for this. If you look at the facts, austerity is basically over,” Mr. Wolff said, noting that the European Commission, the union’s executive arm in Brussels, had steadily let up the pressure for spending cuts. |
| All the same, he added, Spain’s political muddle sends “a clear signal that we have huge economic problems along the periphery” and that “Germany is not the growth locomotive for Europe that it should be.” | All the same, he added, Spain’s political muddle sends “a clear signal that we have huge economic problems along the periphery” and that “Germany is not the growth locomotive for Europe that it should be.” |
| Producing strong growth and dealing with the refugee crisis are only Europe’s most visible challenges for 2016. Leaders in Brussels and in Berlin face a yet more daunting task if they want to save what has been built, Ms. Tempel said. | Producing strong growth and dealing with the refugee crisis are only Europe’s most visible challenges for 2016. Leaders in Brussels and in Berlin face a yet more daunting task if they want to save what has been built, Ms. Tempel said. |
| “We didn’t manage very well to give the E.U. a positive narrative as something that we want and not something that we need,” she said. “We need it, and we should want it as well.” Speed, but also patience, is of the essence, she added. “The time of fooling ourselves is over.” | “We didn’t manage very well to give the E.U. a positive narrative as something that we want and not something that we need,” she said. “We need it, and we should want it as well.” Speed, but also patience, is of the essence, she added. “The time of fooling ourselves is over.” |