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| Nations on the Brink of a Landmark Climate Accord in Paris | Nations on the Brink of a Landmark Climate Accord in Paris |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| LE BOURGET, France — Representatives of 195 countries were on the brink of reaching a landmark climate accord that would, for the first time, commit nearly every country to lowering planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions to help stave off the most drastic effects of climate change. | |
| Delegates who have been negotiating intensely in this Paris suburb for two weeks were presented with the final draft of the document Saturday afternoon, after a tense morning when the text was promised but repeatedly delayed. Delegates immediately began parsing the text of the agreement for language that had been the subject of debate before determining whether the deal should become law. | Delegates who have been negotiating intensely in this Paris suburb for two weeks were presented with the final draft of the document Saturday afternoon, after a tense morning when the text was promised but repeatedly delayed. Delegates immediately began parsing the text of the agreement for language that had been the subject of debate before determining whether the deal should become law. |
| At the heart of the new draft text is a breakthrough on an issue that has foiled decades of international efforts to address climate change. Traditionally, such pacts have required developed economies, such as the United States, to take action to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, but they have exempted developing countries, such as China and India, from such action. | At the heart of the new draft text is a breakthrough on an issue that has foiled decades of international efforts to address climate change. Traditionally, such pacts have required developed economies, such as the United States, to take action to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, but they have exempted developing countries, such as China and India, from such action. |
| The new accord changes that dynamic by requiring action in some form from every country, rich or poor. The echoes of those divides persisted during the negotiations, however. | The new accord changes that dynamic by requiring action in some form from every country, rich or poor. The echoes of those divides persisted during the negotiations, however. |
| The accord was heralded by three leaders — Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius of France, President François Hollande and Secretary General Ban Ki-moon of the United Nations — who helped shepherd it through the final phase of a two-year effort to forge commitments to lowering the rate in which carbon emissions are released into the atmosphere. | The accord was heralded by three leaders — Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius of France, President François Hollande and Secretary General Ban Ki-moon of the United Nations — who helped shepherd it through the final phase of a two-year effort to forge commitments to lowering the rate in which carbon emissions are released into the atmosphere. |
| Before the text of the accord was released, the three urged all delegates to seize the opportunity for enormous change, and Mr. Fabius, who has presided over the assembly, made an emotional appeal. | Before the text of the accord was released, the three urged all delegates to seize the opportunity for enormous change, and Mr. Fabius, who has presided over the assembly, made an emotional appeal. |
| “Our text is the best possible balance,” he said, “a balance which is powerful yet delicate, which will enable each delegation, each group of countries, with his head held high, having achieved something important. | “Our text is the best possible balance,” he said, “a balance which is powerful yet delicate, which will enable each delegation, each group of countries, with his head held high, having achieved something important. |
| Unlike at the climate summit meeting in Copenhagen in 2009, Mr. Fabius said, the stars for this assembly were aligned. | Unlike at the climate summit meeting in Copenhagen in 2009, Mr. Fabius said, the stars for this assembly were aligned. |
| As negotiators from countries representing a self-described “high-ambition coalition” walked into the United Nations plenary session shortly before noon, they were swarmed by cheering, clapping bystanders. The coalition, formed to push for ambitious environmental provisions in the deal, includes a mix of rich countries, such as the United States and members of the European Union; island nations like Tuvalu and Kiribati, which are vulnerable to damage from rising sea levels; and countries with the strongest economies in Latin America, such as Brazil. | As negotiators from countries representing a self-described “high-ambition coalition” walked into the United Nations plenary session shortly before noon, they were swarmed by cheering, clapping bystanders. The coalition, formed to push for ambitious environmental provisions in the deal, includes a mix of rich countries, such as the United States and members of the European Union; island nations like Tuvalu and Kiribati, which are vulnerable to damage from rising sea levels; and countries with the strongest economies in Latin America, such as Brazil. |
| Representatives of the group all wore lapel pins made of dried coconut fronds, a symbol of the Marshall Islands, whose climate envoy, Tony de Brum, helped form the coalition. Developing countries with the highest emissions, such as China and India, are not in the coalition. | Representatives of the group all wore lapel pins made of dried coconut fronds, a symbol of the Marshall Islands, whose climate envoy, Tony de Brum, helped form the coalition. Developing countries with the highest emissions, such as China and India, are not in the coalition. |
| Scientists and world leaders have said the talks here represent the world’s last, best hope of striking a deal that would begin to avert the most devastating effects of a warming planet. | Scientists and world leaders have said the talks here represent the world’s last, best hope of striking a deal that would begin to avert the most devastating effects of a warming planet. |
| Mr. Ban has said there is “no Plan B” if this deal falls apart. The Eiffel Tower was illuminated with that phrase Friday night. | Mr. Ban has said there is “no Plan B” if this deal falls apart. The Eiffel Tower was illuminated with that phrase Friday night. |
| Mr. Fabius hopes the document will be approved as international law at a plenary session of 195 parties and the European Union scheduled for later Saturday. But it is not yet certain that the draft accord will receive the unanimous support required for it to become legally binding. | Mr. Fabius hopes the document will be approved as international law at a plenary session of 195 parties and the European Union scheduled for later Saturday. But it is not yet certain that the draft accord will receive the unanimous support required for it to become legally binding. |
| At the Copenhagen conference in 2009, a hard-fought deal failed at the last moment, when a handful of parties objected to the text. | At the Copenhagen conference in 2009, a hard-fought deal failed at the last moment, when a handful of parties objected to the text. |
| “Anything could happen,” said Jennifer Morgan, an expert in international climate change negotiations at the World Resources Institute, a research organization. “I’ll be holding my breath until the gavel comes down.” | “Anything could happen,” said Jennifer Morgan, an expert in international climate change negotiations at the World Resources Institute, a research organization. “I’ll be holding my breath until the gavel comes down.” |
| A more likely course of events, Ms. Morgan and others said, is that diplomats from several countries will object to some portions of the agreement. They would then engage in sideline talks, while Mr. Fabius and his envoys negotiate to win their support. Those talks may yet lead to a few final changes to the language of the agreement. | A more likely course of events, Ms. Morgan and others said, is that diplomats from several countries will object to some portions of the agreement. They would then engage in sideline talks, while Mr. Fabius and his envoys negotiate to win their support. Those talks may yet lead to a few final changes to the language of the agreement. |
| But as details of the plan emerged, some developing nations expressed consternation. Poorer countries had pushed for a legally binding provision requiring that rich countries appropriate a minimum of $100 billion a year to help them mitigate and adapt to the ravages of climate change. In the final deal, that $100 billion figure appears only in a preamble, not in what would be the legally binding portion of the agreement. | But as details of the plan emerged, some developing nations expressed consternation. Poorer countries had pushed for a legally binding provision requiring that rich countries appropriate a minimum of $100 billion a year to help them mitigate and adapt to the ravages of climate change. In the final deal, that $100 billion figure appears only in a preamble, not in what would be the legally binding portion of the agreement. |
| “We’ve always said that it was important that the $100 billion was anchored in the agreement,” said Tosi Mpanu-Mpanu, a negotiator for the Democratic Republic of Congo and the incoming leader of a coalition known as the Least Developed Countries. “We’ll have to huddle and see if something can be worked out.” | “We’ve always said that it was important that the $100 billion was anchored in the agreement,” said Tosi Mpanu-Mpanu, a negotiator for the Democratic Republic of Congo and the incoming leader of a coalition known as the Least Developed Countries. “We’ll have to huddle and see if something can be worked out.” |
| After two years of international talks in dozens of world capitals, two weeks of focused negotiations in this temporary tent city in a suburb of Paris, and two all-night, line-by-line negotiations, a near-final text was sent to lawyers and translators at about 4 a.m. | After two years of international talks in dozens of world capitals, two weeks of focused negotiations in this temporary tent city in a suburb of Paris, and two all-night, line-by-line negotiations, a near-final text was sent to lawyers and translators at about 4 a.m. |
| While top energy, environment and foreign policy officials from nearly every country have offered positions on the text, ultimately it fell to France, the host, to assemble the final document. | While top energy, environment and foreign policy officials from nearly every country have offered positions on the text, ultimately it fell to France, the host, to assemble the final document. |
| The stated goal of the agreement is to begin to level off the rise in fossil fuel emissions enough to stave off an increase in atmospheric temperatures of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit). That is the point at which, scientists say, the planet will be locked into an inescapable future of devastating effects of global warming, including rising sea levels, severe flooding and droughts, food and water shortages and more extreme storms. | The stated goal of the agreement is to begin to level off the rise in fossil fuel emissions enough to stave off an increase in atmospheric temperatures of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit). That is the point at which, scientists say, the planet will be locked into an inescapable future of devastating effects of global warming, including rising sea levels, severe flooding and droughts, food and water shortages and more extreme storms. |
| More recent scientific reports have concluded that even staving off that amount of warming will not save the planet from many of the worst effects of climate change, particularly rising sea levels. Thus, the text was expected to include a reference to reducing emissions enough to stave off a warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). | More recent scientific reports have concluded that even staving off that amount of warming will not save the planet from many of the worst effects of climate change, particularly rising sea levels. Thus, the text was expected to include a reference to reducing emissions enough to stave off a warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). |
| Vulnerable low-lying island states have pushed for the inclusion of the more stringent target, against the objection of major oil producers like Saudi Arabia. But that target is largely considered aspirational and is not subject to legally binding language. | Vulnerable low-lying island states have pushed for the inclusion of the more stringent target, against the objection of major oil producers like Saudi Arabia. But that target is largely considered aspirational and is not subject to legally binding language. |
| The agreement sets a vague goal of having global greenhouse gas emissions peak “as soon as possible.” | The agreement sets a vague goal of having global greenhouse gas emissions peak “as soon as possible.” |
| At the core of the agreement are a set of individual plans, put forth by 186 countries, outlining ways in which they will each lower their greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 or 2030. | At the core of the agreement are a set of individual plans, put forth by 186 countries, outlining ways in which they will each lower their greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 or 2030. |
| On their own, those plans will lower greenhouse gas emissions only about half as much as is necessary to stave off the temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsius. | On their own, those plans will lower greenhouse gas emissions only about half as much as is necessary to stave off the temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsius. |
| Thus, the new accord sets out a schedule for those countries to return to the negotiating table every five years with plans that would ratchet up the stringency of their existing polices. The first such meeting would take place in 2020, when countries would be required to propose tougher plans. | Thus, the new accord sets out a schedule for those countries to return to the negotiating table every five years with plans that would ratchet up the stringency of their existing polices. The first such meeting would take place in 2020, when countries would be required to propose tougher plans. |
| The accord also requires “stock-taking” meetings every five years, at which countries will be required to present an accounting of how they are reducing their emissions compared with the targets they had presented. It also sets forth language requiring countries to monitor, verify and publicly report their levels of emissions. | The accord also requires “stock-taking” meetings every five years, at which countries will be required to present an accounting of how they are reducing their emissions compared with the targets they had presented. It also sets forth language requiring countries to monitor, verify and publicly report their levels of emissions. |
| The issue of monitoring and verification had been one of the most contentious, with negotiators wrangling over final details into Saturday morning. The United States had insisted on an aggressive, uniform system for countries to publicly report their emissions, and on the creation of an outside body to verify emissions reductions — a sort of “carbon auditor.” Developing nations such as China and India had demanded that they be subject to a less stringent form of monitoring and verification than richer countries. | The issue of monitoring and verification had been one of the most contentious, with negotiators wrangling over final details into Saturday morning. The United States had insisted on an aggressive, uniform system for countries to publicly report their emissions, and on the creation of an outside body to verify emissions reductions — a sort of “carbon auditor.” Developing nations such as China and India had demanded that they be subject to a less stringent form of monitoring and verification than richer countries. |
| In the end, the final draft requires all countries to use the same system to report their emissions, but it allows developing nations to report fewer details until they build the ability to better count their carbon emissions. The text allows for other details, such as the creation of the carbon auditor agency, to be determined later. | In the end, the final draft requires all countries to use the same system to report their emissions, but it allows developing nations to report fewer details until they build the ability to better count their carbon emissions. The text allows for other details, such as the creation of the carbon auditor agency, to be determined later. |
| Some elements of the accord would be voluntary, while others would be legally binding. That hybrid structure was specifically intended to ensure the support of the United States: An accord that would have required legally binding targets for emissions reductions would be legally interpreted as a new treaty, and would be required to go before the Senate for ratification. | Some elements of the accord would be voluntary, while others would be legally binding. That hybrid structure was specifically intended to ensure the support of the United States: An accord that would have required legally binding targets for emissions reductions would be legally interpreted as a new treaty, and would be required to go before the Senate for ratification. |
| Such a proposal would be dead on arrival in the Republican-controlled Senate, where many lawmakers question the established science of climate change, and where even more hope to thwart President Obama’s climate change agenda. | Such a proposal would be dead on arrival in the Republican-controlled Senate, where many lawmakers question the established science of climate change, and where even more hope to thwart President Obama’s climate change agenda. |
| As a result, all language in the accord relating to the reduction of carbon emissions is essentially voluntary. The language assigns no concrete targets to any country for emissions reductions. Instead, each government has crafted a plan detailing how they would lower emissions at home, based on what each head of state believes is feasible given the country’s domestic political and economic situation. | As a result, all language in the accord relating to the reduction of carbon emissions is essentially voluntary. The language assigns no concrete targets to any country for emissions reductions. Instead, each government has crafted a plan detailing how they would lower emissions at home, based on what each head of state believes is feasible given the country’s domestic political and economic situation. |
| The accord uses the language of an existing treaty, the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, to put forth legally binding language requiring countries to verify their emissions, and to periodically put forth new, tougher domestic plans over time. | The accord uses the language of an existing treaty, the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, to put forth legally binding language requiring countries to verify their emissions, and to periodically put forth new, tougher domestic plans over time. |
| “This agreement is highly unlikely to trigger any legitimate grounds for compelling Senate ratification,” said Paul Bledsoe, a climate change official in the Clinton administration. “The language itself is sufficiently vague regarding emissions pledges, and presidents in any event have frequently used their broad authority to enter into these sorts of executive agreements.” | “This agreement is highly unlikely to trigger any legitimate grounds for compelling Senate ratification,” said Paul Bledsoe, a climate change official in the Clinton administration. “The language itself is sufficiently vague regarding emissions pledges, and presidents in any event have frequently used their broad authority to enter into these sorts of executive agreements.” |