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Final Draft of Climate Change Accord Expected on Saturday Final Draft of Climate Change Accord Expected on Saturday
(35 minutes later)
LE BOURGET, France — Delegates are expected to receive on Saturday afternoon the final draft of a landmark climate change accord that would for the first time commit nearly every country on Earth to lower their planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions.LE BOURGET, France — Delegates are expected to receive on Saturday afternoon the final draft of a landmark climate change accord that would for the first time commit nearly every country on Earth to lower their planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions.
The document was to be unveiled on Saturday morning, but was unexpectedly held back, with a new deadline set of 1:30 p.m. Paris time for distribution to delegates. The reason for the delay is unclear. The document was to be unveiled on Saturday morning, but it was unexpectedly held back, with a new deadline of 1:30 p.m. Paris time for it to be distributed to delegates. The reason for the delay is unclear.
Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius of France nevertheless went ahead with the formal announcement of the latest revised document, which was originally scheduled to be presented on Friday, after two weeks of intense negotiations at this United Nations summit. Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius of France nevertheless went ahead with the formal announcement of the latest revised document, which was originally scheduled to be presented on Friday, after two weeks of intense negotiations at this United Nations summit meeting.
“Our text is the best possible balance — a balance which is powerful yet delicate,” Mr. Fabius said, which will enable “each group of countries, with his head held high, having achieved something important.” He said delegates would receive the text after lunch. Along with President François Hollande of France and Secretary General Ban Ki-moon of the United Nations, Mr. Fabius, who has presided over the assembly, made an emotional appeal to delegates to approve the document.
Along with President François Hollande of France and United Nations Secretary Ban Ki-moon, Mr. Fabius, who has presided over the assembly, made an emotional appeal to delegates to approve the document. “Our text is the best possible balance — a balance which is powerful yet delicate, which will enable each delegation, each group of countries, with head held high, having achieved something important,” Mr. Fabius said. He said delegates would receive the text after lunch.
Unlike the climate summit meeting in Copenhagen in 2009, he said, the stars for this assembly were aligned.Unlike the climate summit meeting in Copenhagen in 2009, he said, the stars for this assembly were aligned.
Scientists and world leaders have said the talks here represent the world’s last, best hope of striking a deal that would begin to avert the most devastating impacts of a warming planet.Scientists and world leaders have said the talks here represent the world’s last, best hope of striking a deal that would begin to avert the most devastating impacts of a warming planet.
Mr. Ban has said that there is “No Plan B” if this deal falls apart. Friday night, the Eiffel Tower was illuminated with the phrase “No Plan B.” Mr. Ban has said that there is “no Plan B” if this deal falls apart. Friday night, the Eiffel Tower was illuminated with the phrase “No Plan B.”
Mr. Fabius hopes to gavel the document into international law before a plenary session of 195 parties and the European Union later on Saturday.Mr. Fabius hopes to gavel the document into international law before a plenary session of 195 parties and the European Union later on Saturday.
But it is not yet certain that the draft accord will receive the unanimous consent of the body required for it to become legally binding.But it is not yet certain that the draft accord will receive the unanimous consent of the body required for it to become legally binding.
At the conference in Copenhagen in 2009, a hard-fought deal failed at the last moment when just a handful of parties objected to the text. At the conference in Copenhagen in 2009, a hard-fought deal failed at the last moment when a handful of parties objected to the text.
“Anything could happen. I’ll be holding my breath until the gavel comes down,” said Jennifer Morgan, an expert in international climate change negotiations with the World Resources Institute, a research organization. “Anything could happen,” said Jennifer Morgan, an expert in international climate change negotiations with the World Resources Institute, a research organization. “I’ll be holding my breath until the gavel comes down.”
A more likely scenario, said Ms. Morgan and others, is that top diplomats from countries will object to some portions of the language, and spend the coming hours in sideline talks, as Mr. Fabius and his envoys negotiate to win their support. Those talks may yet entail a few final tweaks to the language of the text. A more likely chain of events, Ms. Morgan and others said, is that top diplomats from various countries will object to some portions of the language, and will spend the coming hours in sideline talks, as Mr. Fabius and his envoys negotiate to win their support. Those talks may yet entail a few final tweaks to the language of the agreement.
“It is still a proposal. Fingers crossed,” a senior official closely involved in the process said in an email on Saturday morning. “It is still a proposal,” a senior official closely involved in the process said in an email on Saturday morning. “Fingers crossed.”
At the heart of the new draft text is a historic breakthrough on an issue that has stalled decades of failed international efforts to address climate change. Traditionally, such pacts have required action by developed economies, such as the United States, to take action to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, but have exempted developing economies, such as China and India, from action. At the heart of the new draft text is a historic breakthrough on an issue that has foiled decades of international efforts to address climate change. Traditionally, such pacts required action by developed economies, such as the United States, to take action to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, but they exempted developing countries, like China and India, from such action.
The new accord changes that dynamic by requiring action in some form from every country, rich or poor. However, the echoes of those divides persisted during the negotiations.The new accord changes that dynamic by requiring action in some form from every country, rich or poor. However, the echoes of those divides persisted during the negotiations.
After two years of international talks in dozens of word capitals, two weeks of focused negotiations in this temporary tent city in a suburb of Paris, and two nights of all-night, line-by-line negotiations, a near-final text was sent to lawyers and translators at about 4 a.m. After two years of international talks in dozens of word capitals, two weeks of focused negotiations in this temporary tent city in a suburb of Paris, and two all-night, line-by-line negotiations, a near-final text was sent to lawyers and translators at about 4 a.m.
While top energy, environment and foreign policy officials from nearly every country have offered their positions on the text, ultimately it fell to the summit’s French host, Mr. Fabius and his staff, to assemble the final document. While top energy, environment and foreign policy officials from nearly every country have offered their positions on the text, ultimately it fell to the summit meeting’s host, France — which is to say Mr. Fabius and members of his staff — to assemble the final document.
The stated goal of the agreement is to begin to level off the rise in fossil fuel emissions enough to stave off an increase in atmospheric temperatures of 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. That is the point at which, scientists say, the planet will be locked into an inescapable future of devastating impacts of global warming, including rising sea levels, severe flooding and droughts, food and water shortages and more extreme storms. The stated goal of the agreement is to begin to level off the rise in fossil fuel emissions enough to stave off an increase in atmospheric temperatures of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit). That is the point at which, scientists say, the planet will be locked into an inescapable future of devastating impacts of global warming, including rising sea levels, severe flooding and droughts, food and water shortages and more extreme storms.
More recent scientific reports have concluded that even staving off that amount of warming will not save the planet from many of the worst impacts of climate change, particularly sea level rise. Thus, the text is also expected to include a reference to reducing emissions enough to stave off a warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit. More recent scientific reports have concluded that even staving off that amount of warming will not save the planet from many of the worst impacts of climate change, particularly sea level rise. Thus, the text is also expected to include a reference to reducing emissions enough to stave off a warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit).
Vulnerable low-lying island states like Tuvalu, Kiribati and the Marshall Islands have pushed for the inclusion of that more stringent target, against the objection of petrostates like Saudi Arabia. However, that tighter target is only considered aspirational, and is not subject to legally binding language. Vulnerable low-lying island states like Tuvalu, Kiribati and the Marshall Islands have pushed for the inclusion of that more-stringent target, against the objection of major oil producers like Saudi Arabia. However, that tighter target is only considered aspirational, and it is not subject to legally binding language.
At the core of the agreement are a set of individual plans, put forth by 186 countries, outlining ways in which they will lower their domestic greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 or 2030.At the core of the agreement are a set of individual plans, put forth by 186 countries, outlining ways in which they will lower their domestic greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 or 2030.
On their own, those plans will only lower greenhouse gas emissions by about half as much as is necessary to stave off even the 3.6 degree temperature rise. On their own, those plans will only lower greenhouse gas emissions by about half as much as is necessary to stave off even the 2 degrees Celsius rise.
Thus, the new accord sets out a schedule for those countries to regularly return to the table with fresh plans that would ratchet up the stringency of their existing polices. It also sets up a schedule for countries to convene at regular “stock-taking” meetings, at which they will be required to present an accounting of how they are reducing their emissions compared to the plans that they have put forth. As a result, the new accord sets out a schedule for those countries to regularly return to the negotating table with new plans that would ratchet up the stringency of their existing polices. It also sets up a schedule for countries to convene at regular “stock-taking” meetings, at which they will be required to present an accounting of how they are reducing their emissions compared to the plans that they have put forth.
The accord also sets forth language requiring countries to monitor, verify and publicly report their levels of emissions.The accord also sets forth language requiring countries to monitor, verify and publicly report their levels of emissions.
In terms of its legal force, some elements of the accord will be voluntary, while some elements will be legally binding under international law. That hybrid structure was specifically designed to ensure the support of the United States: An accord that would have required legally binding targets for emissions reductions would be legally interpreted as a new treaty, and thus would be required to go before the Senate for ratification.In terms of its legal force, some elements of the accord will be voluntary, while some elements will be legally binding under international law. That hybrid structure was specifically designed to ensure the support of the United States: An accord that would have required legally binding targets for emissions reductions would be legally interpreted as a new treaty, and thus would be required to go before the Senate for ratification.
But that proposal would be dead on arrival in the Republican-controlled Senate, where many members question the established science of climate change, and nearly all hope to thwart President Obama’s climate change agenda.But that proposal would be dead on arrival in the Republican-controlled Senate, where many members question the established science of climate change, and nearly all hope to thwart President Obama’s climate change agenda.
Thus, all language in the accord relating to the cutting of carbon emissions is essentially voluntary. The language assigns no concrete targets to any country for emissions reductions. Instead, each government has crafted a plan detailing how they would lower emissions at home, based on what each head of state believes is feasible given the country’s domestic political and economic situation.Thus, all language in the accord relating to the cutting of carbon emissions is essentially voluntary. The language assigns no concrete targets to any country for emissions reductions. Instead, each government has crafted a plan detailing how they would lower emissions at home, based on what each head of state believes is feasible given the country’s domestic political and economic situation.
The accord uses the language of an existing treaty, the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, to put forth legally binding language requiring countries to verify their emissions, and to periodically put forth new, tougher domestic plans over time.The accord uses the language of an existing treaty, the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, to put forth legally binding language requiring countries to verify their emissions, and to periodically put forth new, tougher domestic plans over time.