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Marine Le Pen Gets a Boost in French Regional Elections | Marine Le Pen Gets a Boost in French Regional Elections |
(35 minutes later) | |
PARIS — Sunday’s election results changed the political center of gravity in France. | PARIS — Sunday’s election results changed the political center of gravity in France. |
Although President François Hollande has earned widespread approval for his handling of the terrorist attacks here, and Nicolas Sarkozy, his predecessor, is still pursuing a comeback plan to propel him and his center-right party back into power, the most significant political figure in France — some would argue the most powerful — is Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far right. | |
Ms. Le Pen led her far-right National Front to a first-place finish in the initial round of regional elections on Sunday, a huge step forward in her plan to transform a fringe movement into a credible party of government. | Ms. Le Pen led her far-right National Front to a first-place finish in the initial round of regional elections on Sunday, a huge step forward in her plan to transform a fringe movement into a credible party of government. |
The result left both Mr. Hollande’s Socialists and Mr. Sarkozy’s Republicans groping on Monday for ways to thwart Ms. Le Pen’s ascendance and increasingly worried that she is emerging as the candidate to beat in the presidential elections in 18 months. It also highlighted the appeal of baldly nationalist messages on both sides of the Atlantic at a time when traditional parties are struggling to address the insecurities of voters facing economic dislocation and a sense of vulnerability to terrorism. | The result left both Mr. Hollande’s Socialists and Mr. Sarkozy’s Republicans groping on Monday for ways to thwart Ms. Le Pen’s ascendance and increasingly worried that she is emerging as the candidate to beat in the presidential elections in 18 months. It also highlighted the appeal of baldly nationalist messages on both sides of the Atlantic at a time when traditional parties are struggling to address the insecurities of voters facing economic dislocation and a sense of vulnerability to terrorism. |
“More than ever the National Front has become the heart of French political life and the political party around which the others situate themselves,” said Bruno Cautrès, a political analyst and public opinion specialist at the Center for Political Research at Sciences Po, the institute of political studies in Paris. | “More than ever the National Front has become the heart of French political life and the political party around which the others situate themselves,” said Bruno Cautrès, a political analyst and public opinion specialist at the Center for Political Research at Sciences Po, the institute of political studies in Paris. |
The National Front not only came in first in the popular vote on Sunday with 28 percent of votes cast nationwide, it was leading races to govern six of France’s 13 regions, decisively in at least two. | The National Front not only came in first in the popular vote on Sunday with 28 percent of votes cast nationwide, it was leading races to govern six of France’s 13 regions, decisively in at least two. |
Many factors combined to help Ms. Le Pen’s party in the first round of voting — the second will be held on Sunday — but the overwhelming message was one that the French elites have been reluctant to confront: The political rules that have governed the country for the past 25 years are being reshaped by a wave of nationalist right-wing populism familiar to voters in many other countries, not least fans of Donald J. Trump in the United States. | Many factors combined to help Ms. Le Pen’s party in the first round of voting — the second will be held on Sunday — but the overwhelming message was one that the French elites have been reluctant to confront: The political rules that have governed the country for the past 25 years are being reshaped by a wave of nationalist right-wing populism familiar to voters in many other countries, not least fans of Donald J. Trump in the United States. |
Just like Mr. Trump, Ms. Le Pen is shrewdly speaking to voters who feel economically strained, distant from leaders they perceive as elitist and out of touch, and angry or frightened by waves of immigration that they feel threaten their national identity and personal security. Her appeal, which helped her party win political control of a few French cities last year, seems to have only grown since the attacks in Paris last month that killed 130 people, giving the National Front a chance to establish greater credibility by governing key regions, including the area in the north around Calais that has been struggling all year to deal with an encampment of thousands of migrants. | Just like Mr. Trump, Ms. Le Pen is shrewdly speaking to voters who feel economically strained, distant from leaders they perceive as elitist and out of touch, and angry or frightened by waves of immigration that they feel threaten their national identity and personal security. Her appeal, which helped her party win political control of a few French cities last year, seems to have only grown since the attacks in Paris last month that killed 130 people, giving the National Front a chance to establish greater credibility by governing key regions, including the area in the north around Calais that has been struggling all year to deal with an encampment of thousands of migrants. |
She talks about the French “nation” and its “sovereignty” and making France once again proud of its “founding values” and “authentic Frenchness.” Such language takes aim at anyone who does not embrace assimilation into the French way of life. | She talks about the French “nation” and its “sovereignty” and making France once again proud of its “founding values” and “authentic Frenchness.” Such language takes aim at anyone who does not embrace assimilation into the French way of life. |
In her victory speech on Sunday night she added the word “laicité” to the core French values of liberty, equality and fraternity. “Laicité” is loosely translated as secularism, but increasingly has come to mean eschewing any show of religious affiliation in public, which some critics see as a cover for anti-Muslim views. It is on the grounds of laicité that French Muslim women are barred from wearing head scarves in government jobs and in schools. | In her victory speech on Sunday night she added the word “laicité” to the core French values of liberty, equality and fraternity. “Laicité” is loosely translated as secularism, but increasingly has come to mean eschewing any show of religious affiliation in public, which some critics see as a cover for anti-Muslim views. It is on the grounds of laicité that French Muslim women are barred from wearing head scarves in government jobs and in schools. |
Ms. Le Pen uses the prospect of an Islamic takeover of France as an example of what France must fight. If the war is lost against “Islamist totalitarianism,” she said after the attacks in Paris last month, “the veil will be imposed on all women.” | Ms. Le Pen uses the prospect of an Islamic takeover of France as an example of what France must fight. If the war is lost against “Islamist totalitarianism,” she said after the attacks in Paris last month, “the veil will be imposed on all women.” |
It is an arresting image, and because it taps into the public fear both of rising numbers of immigrants and of attacks by Muslim extremists, such language appears to resonate with a growing slice of the electorate. | It is an arresting image, and because it taps into the public fear both of rising numbers of immigrants and of attacks by Muslim extremists, such language appears to resonate with a growing slice of the electorate. |
“These regional elections are taking place in a context when defense and security are the primary preoccupations of the French, ahead of unemployment, for the first time in 15 years,” said Sylvain Brouard, a political scientist at the Center for Political Research at Sciences Po. | “These regional elections are taking place in a context when defense and security are the primary preoccupations of the French, ahead of unemployment, for the first time in 15 years,” said Sylvain Brouard, a political scientist at the Center for Political Research at Sciences Po. |
“So we have a context which makes the stakes very favorable for the National Front,” he said. | “So we have a context which makes the stakes very favorable for the National Front,” he said. |
In many ways, this is Marine Le Pen’s moment. She spent the last five years working to transform the party from the outsider movement of her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, who was overtly anti-Semitic and content to stay on the edge of national politics, into a party that has a real chance at the presidency. | In many ways, this is Marine Le Pen’s moment. She spent the last five years working to transform the party from the outsider movement of her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, who was overtly anti-Semitic and content to stay on the edge of national politics, into a party that has a real chance at the presidency. |
It did not escape notice that if the regional election had been the first round of the presidential elections, Ms. Le Pen would have been in a runoff with Mr. Sarkozy and the Republicans, who took 27 percent of the vote. Mr. Hollande’s Socialists, with just 23 percent of the vote, would have been out of the running altogether. | It did not escape notice that if the regional election had been the first round of the presidential elections, Ms. Le Pen would have been in a runoff with Mr. Sarkozy and the Republicans, who took 27 percent of the vote. Mr. Hollande’s Socialists, with just 23 percent of the vote, would have been out of the running altogether. |
Her success is rooted not just in her ability to modulate her message, cloaking some of her more xenophobic ideas in coded language. She also had the good fortune to come to the political stage at a moment when the traditional parties are splintering, seemingly unable to address the economic woes of the middle class, stem the more negative effects of globalization on the French way of life or convince voters that they are not imperiled by immigration and extremism. Ms. Le Pen has long had proposals on these issues — albeit ones that exclude immigrants from many of the benefits that go to French citizens, or that force assimilation. | Her success is rooted not just in her ability to modulate her message, cloaking some of her more xenophobic ideas in coded language. She also had the good fortune to come to the political stage at a moment when the traditional parties are splintering, seemingly unable to address the economic woes of the middle class, stem the more negative effects of globalization on the French way of life or convince voters that they are not imperiled by immigration and extremism. Ms. Le Pen has long had proposals on these issues — albeit ones that exclude immigrants from many of the benefits that go to French citizens, or that force assimilation. |
The old Socialist Party is “incapable of changing at the moment; it is an empty shell,” said Pierre Haski, the co-founder of the French news site Rue 89. “The Socialists are losing the cities, except for Paris, Lyon, maybe Lille; it’s lost most departments; and it’s going to lose regions after this election. It’s been weakened so that it’s very difficult to imagine it could win the next presidential election. | The old Socialist Party is “incapable of changing at the moment; it is an empty shell,” said Pierre Haski, the co-founder of the French news site Rue 89. “The Socialists are losing the cities, except for Paris, Lyon, maybe Lille; it’s lost most departments; and it’s going to lose regions after this election. It’s been weakened so that it’s very difficult to imagine it could win the next presidential election. |
“And you find the same crisis in the traditional right,” Mr. Haski said. “Sarkozy’s party is in disarray.” | “And you find the same crisis in the traditional right,” Mr. Haski said. “Sarkozy’s party is in disarray.” |
When the National Front had done well previously, there was a broad political understanding that the mainstream parties would unite to ensure that the far right did not win. | When the National Front had done well previously, there was a broad political understanding that the mainstream parties would unite to ensure that the far right did not win. |
For example, in 2002 when Jean-Marie Le Pen made it to the second round in the presidential elections, the Socialists and other left-leaning parties told their supporters to vote for Jacques Chirac, the leader of the center right, because even though the center left opposed many of his policies it was the only way to ensure that the National Front did not win the presidency. | |
On Sunday, Mr. Sarkozy dashed the hopes of any broad coalition against Ms. Le Pen, saying he would “neither withdraw, nor fuse” with any other party. His reasoning is that Ms. Le Pen has run on the position that there is no difference between the traditional left and right, so if he allows his party to combine with the left, it will merely validate her point and undermine his appeal to right-leaning voters who might otherwise vote for him. On Monday the Socialists and the Republicans continued to squabble over avoiding an outcome in which they split the centrist vote and give an opening to the National Front. | On Sunday, Mr. Sarkozy dashed the hopes of any broad coalition against Ms. Le Pen, saying he would “neither withdraw, nor fuse” with any other party. His reasoning is that Ms. Le Pen has run on the position that there is no difference between the traditional left and right, so if he allows his party to combine with the left, it will merely validate her point and undermine his appeal to right-leaning voters who might otherwise vote for him. On Monday the Socialists and the Republicans continued to squabble over avoiding an outcome in which they split the centrist vote and give an opening to the National Front. |
However, Ms. Le Pen’s first challenge will be to confirm last weekend’s showing by winning again in the second round. If the past is prologue, it seems likely that she will assume power in at least two regions of France, giving at least those areas a chance to see if they like not only her statements, but also how her party governs. | However, Ms. Le Pen’s first challenge will be to confirm last weekend’s showing by winning again in the second round. If the past is prologue, it seems likely that she will assume power in at least two regions of France, giving at least those areas a chance to see if they like not only her statements, but also how her party governs. |