This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/dec/01/george-osborne-denies-net-migration-rise-needed-to-achieve-budget-surplus

The article has changed 4 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 0 Version 1
George Osborne denies net migration rise needed to achieve budget surplus George Osborne denies net immigration rise needed to achieve budget surplus
(about 1 hour later)
George Osborne came under fire from MPs on Tuesday for refusing to admit that he plans to rely on a strong rise in net migration to achieve a budget surplus at the end of the parliament. George Osborne came under fire from MPs on Tuesday for refusing to admit that he plans to rely on a strong rise in net immigration to achieve a budget surplus at the end of the parliament.
The chancellor said the increase in jobs over the next five years would be taken mainly by Britons, despite figures from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) last week showing the government would need to almost double net migration to hit its target of a £10bn surplus in 2020. The chancellor said the increase in jobs over the next five years would be taken mainly by Britons, despite figures from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) last week showing the government would need to almost double net immigration to hit its target of a £10bn surplus in 2020.
The Labour MP John Mann accused Osborne of failing to acknowledge that bringing down the annual deficit could only be achieved by increasing the number of new jobs and finding migrants to fill them.The Labour MP John Mann accused Osborne of failing to acknowledge that bringing down the annual deficit could only be achieved by increasing the number of new jobs and finding migrants to fill them.
He pointed to figures from the OBR showing that it expects the economy to generate more than 1.5m new jobs before 2020. The OBR forecasts for the chancellor’s autumn statement last week show it expects net migration to increase by 925,000 over the same period, a near doubling in its forecast since it published estimates at the beginning of the year of a 525,000 increase. He pointed to figures from the OBR showing that it expects the economy to generate more than 1.5m new jobs before 2020. The OBR forecasts for the chancellor’s autumn statement last week show it expects net immigration to increase by 925,000 over the same period, a near doubling in its forecast since it published estimates at the beginning of the year of a 525,000 increase.
Mann said: “It is simply not possible to find more than 1m jobs from the unemployed, school leavers and the economically inactive over the next five years. That is something the OBR recognises. So am I right in thinking that we will need net migration of 1m in the cycle to achieve a budget surplus?” Mann said: “It is simply not possible to find more than 1m jobs from the unemployed, school leavers and the economically inactive over the next five years. That is something the OBR recognises. So am I right in thinking that we will need net immigration of 1m in the cycle to achieve a budget surplus?”
Osborne replied: “People can enter the labour force for many reasons. They can be school leavers, graduates or people who are currently economic inactive and not currently in receipt of benefits. I’m not sure I follow the logic of the questions. But when it comes to migration, we are not trying to stop migration we are just trying to get it down to manageable levels.Osborne replied: “People can enter the labour force for many reasons. They can be school leavers, graduates or people who are currently economic inactive and not currently in receipt of benefits. I’m not sure I follow the logic of the questions. But when it comes to migration, we are not trying to stop migration we are just trying to get it down to manageable levels.
“Because of the action we are taking to create the skills for our young people to gain employment means unemployment is very low and the employment rate is very high.”“Because of the action we are taking to create the skills for our young people to gain employment means unemployment is very low and the employment rate is very high.”
Mann said Osborne had failed to recognise figures in the OBR forecasts that accompanied last week’s autumn statement showing that the public finances will benefit from higher tax revenues following higher than expected net migration. Mann said Osborne had failed to recognise figures in the OBR forecasts that accompanied last week’s autumn statement showing that the public finances will benefit from higher tax revenues following higher than expected net immigration.
The OBR has raised its projections for inward migration twice this year. For the emergency budget in July, its projection went from 105,000 people a year to 165,000. The figure was revised again to 185,000 as part of the OBR’s economic and fiscal outlook published alongside Osborne’s spending review and autumn statement.The OBR has raised its projections for inward migration twice this year. For the emergency budget in July, its projection went from 105,000 people a year to 165,000. The figure was revised again to 185,000 as part of the OBR’s economic and fiscal outlook published alongside Osborne’s spending review and autumn statement.
As a result of the extra jobs and tax incomes, and changes to the composition of the UK’s working-age population generated by the influx, the OBR has revised up the level of potential economic output for the UK by 0.9%.As a result of the extra jobs and tax incomes, and changes to the composition of the UK’s working-age population generated by the influx, the OBR has revised up the level of potential economic output for the UK by 0.9%.
Under the OBR’s calculations, if projected net migration had remained unchanged at 105,000 a year, the boost to output would have been negligible. Without the additional output generated by the changed migration forecasts, the projected budget surplus would drop to zero and the only feasible way to achieve one by 2020 would have been through additional spending cuts or tax rises. Under the OBR’s calculations, if projected net immigration had remained unchanged at 105,000 a year, the boost to output would have been negligible. Without the additional output generated by the changed migration forecasts, the projected budget surplus would drop to zero and the only feasible way to achieve one by 2020 would have been through additional spending cuts or tax rises.
Mann said the OBR may have underestimated the level of net migration after it reached a record high in the last year. The Office for National Statistics published data last week showing that the balance of immigration and emigration amounted to net migration of 326,000 in the year to the end of July. Mann said the OBR may have underestimated the level of net immigration after it reached a record high in the last year. The Office for National Statistics published data last week showing that the balance of immigration and emigration amounted to net immigration of 326,000 in the year to the end of July.
The Conservative party has previously pledged to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands. The Conservative party has previously pledged to reduce net immigration to the tens of thousands.