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Mark Carney testifies to parliament; US growth revised up - as it happened Mark Carney testifies to parliament; US growth revised up - as it happened
(about 17 hours later)
2.24pm GMT2.24pm GMT
14:2414:24
Afternoon summaryAfternoon summary
Time for a recap.Time for a recap.
The US economy is growing faster than expected. Growth in the last quarter has been revised up to +2.1% (annualised) or just over 0.5% quarter-on-quarter.The US economy is growing faster than expected. Growth in the last quarter has been revised up to +2.1% (annualised) or just over 0.5% quarter-on-quarter.
Analysts aren’t blown away by the figures, which partly reflect inventory changes. But it may raise the chances of an interest rate rise next month.Analysts aren’t blown away by the figures, which partly reflect inventory changes. But it may raise the chances of an interest rate rise next month.
In the UK, the Bank of England has flagged up that action may be taken to calm consumer credit.In the UK, the Bank of England has flagged up that action may be taken to calm consumer credit.
In an appearance before MPs, governor Mark Carney also said that:In an appearance before MPs, governor Mark Carney also said that:
We’ve also had mixed economic data from GermanyWe’ve also had mixed economic data from Germany
The Greek government has condemned a bomb explosion in Athens overnightThe Greek government has condemned a bomb explosion in Athens overnight
French tourism has taken a hit from the Paris terror attacks, with visits to the capital falling.French tourism has taken a hit from the Paris terror attacks, with visits to the capital falling.
And European stock markets are all in the red today, as investors pile into safe-havens like government bonds and gold as the Russian jet crisis deepens:And European stock markets are all in the red today, as investors pile into safe-havens like government bonds and gold as the Russian jet crisis deepens:
Related: Putin calls Turkey 'accomplices of terrorists' after Russian jet shot down - live updatesRelated: Putin calls Turkey 'accomplices of terrorists' after Russian jet shot down - live updates
2.23pm GMT2.23pm GMT
14:2314:23
Here’s Capital Economic’s Paul Ashworth, explaining how consumers are driving the US economy:Here’s Capital Economic’s Paul Ashworth, explaining how consumers are driving the US economy:
The alternative real gross domestic income measure suggests that the economy expanded by an even stronger 3.1% annualised in the third quarter. Moreover, the disappointing 0.7% gain in real GDI in the second quarter was revised up to a much healthier 2.2%.The alternative real gross domestic income measure suggests that the economy expanded by an even stronger 3.1% annualised in the third quarter. Moreover, the disappointing 0.7% gain in real GDI in the second quarter was revised up to a much healthier 2.2%.
Most of the solid third-quarter gain in incomes accrued to households, with real personal disposable income increasing by as much as 3.9% annualised. Nominal personal incomes increased by 5.1% annualised. In contrast, corporate profits declined by 1.1% last quarter, which translates into an annualised decline of roughly 4.5%.Most of the solid third-quarter gain in incomes accrued to households, with real personal disposable income increasing by as much as 3.9% annualised. Nominal personal incomes increased by 5.1% annualised. In contrast, corporate profits declined by 1.1% last quarter, which translates into an annualised decline of roughly 4.5%.
2.02pm GMT2.02pm GMT
14:0214:02
This US growth report doesn’t set the world alight for investors, says Nancy Curtin, Chief Investment Officer at Close Brothers Asset Management.This US growth report doesn’t set the world alight for investors, says Nancy Curtin, Chief Investment Officer at Close Brothers Asset Management.
However, it is another important sign that the US economy may be robust enough to handle a rate hike.However, it is another important sign that the US economy may be robust enough to handle a rate hike.
She explains:She explains:
Jobs figures for October smashed expectations, while consumer sentiment remains strongly upbeat. Retail figures have been a little more mixed, but this is more a reflection of a new smarter and cost conscious consumer than any fundamental economic issues. Inventory de-stocking weighed on third quarter growth, but as companies rebuild their inventories, this actually bodes well for the figures in the final quarter.Jobs figures for October smashed expectations, while consumer sentiment remains strongly upbeat. Retail figures have been a little more mixed, but this is more a reflection of a new smarter and cost conscious consumer than any fundamental economic issues. Inventory de-stocking weighed on third quarter growth, but as companies rebuild their inventories, this actually bodes well for the figures in the final quarter.
“All of this has seen the Fed seemingly pencil in a rate rise next month, a vote of confidence in the US’ economic stability. In fact, Yellen couldn’t have been much more clear that she expects to start rate normalisation in December. We don’t expect this to startle markets. Not only has it been on the cards for quite some time, but the Fed has repeatedly reassured that rate rises will be steady and incremental, rather sharp and substantial hikes.”“All of this has seen the Fed seemingly pencil in a rate rise next month, a vote of confidence in the US’ economic stability. In fact, Yellen couldn’t have been much more clear that she expects to start rate normalisation in December. We don’t expect this to startle markets. Not only has it been on the cards for quite some time, but the Fed has repeatedly reassured that rate rises will be steady and incremental, rather sharp and substantial hikes.”
1.59pm GMT1.59pm GMT
13:5913:59
The growth uplift is also due to US companies restocking their inventories at a faster pace than expected.The growth uplift is also due to US companies restocking their inventories at a faster pace than expected.
The Commerce Department now believes that firms bought $90bn of new supplies, now the $56.8bn first estimated. That means inventory changes only cut GDP by 0.6%, not the 1.4% first estimated.The Commerce Department now believes that firms bought $90bn of new supplies, now the $56.8bn first estimated. That means inventory changes only cut GDP by 0.6%, not the 1.4% first estimated.
Good news - except it dampens hopes that firms would restock aggressively in the current quarter.Good news - except it dampens hopes that firms would restock aggressively in the current quarter.
1.52pm GMT1.52pm GMT
13:5213:52
There’s not much reaction in the markets to the GDP figures.There’s not much reaction in the markets to the GDP figures.
The Dow Jones industrial average is still expected to fall by over 100 point when Wall Street opens, in 40 minutes.The Dow Jones industrial average is still expected to fall by over 100 point when Wall Street opens, in 40 minutes.
Investors are primarily gripped by the unfolding diplomatic crisis following the downing of a Russian jet by Turkish military today:Investors are primarily gripped by the unfolding diplomatic crisis following the downing of a Russian jet by Turkish military today:
Related: Putin condemns Turkey after Russian warplane downed near Syria borderRelated: Putin condemns Turkey after Russian warplane downed near Syria border
1.39pm GMT1.39pm GMT
13:3913:39
US Q3 GDP revised higher: GDP expanded at a 2.1% annual pace in Q3, up from 1.5% reported last month. pic.twitter.com/ziRrusyAYpUS Q3 GDP revised higher: GDP expanded at a 2.1% annual pace in Q3, up from 1.5% reported last month. pic.twitter.com/ziRrusyAYp
1.38pm GMT1.38pm GMT
13:3813:38
This stronger US growth could encourage the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next month.This stronger US growth could encourage the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next month.
The FT saysThe FT says
Although third quarter growth remains well below the 3.9 per cent rate recorded for the second quarter, the solid numbers - fuelled by improved consumer spending - should reinforce the view among US policymakers that the economy is on a steady growth trajectory.Although third quarter growth remains well below the 3.9 per cent rate recorded for the second quarter, the solid numbers - fuelled by improved consumer spending - should reinforce the view among US policymakers that the economy is on a steady growth trajectory.
US third quarter growth revised higher https://t.co/fOol6WYs5dUS third quarter growth revised higher https://t.co/fOol6WYs5d
1.35pm GMT1.35pm GMT
13:3513:35
US growth revised up to 2.1%US growth revised up to 2.1%
Breaking news -- the US economy grew faster than first estimated in the last quarter.Breaking news -- the US economy grew faster than first estimated in the last quarter.
The Commerce Department has just announced that US GDP grew by 2.1% (annualised) between the start of July and the end of September. Up from an original eatimate of 1.5%.The Commerce Department has just announced that US GDP grew by 2.1% (annualised) between the start of July and the end of September. Up from an original eatimate of 1.5%.
That’s equates to growth of just over 0.5% during the quarter.That’s equates to growth of just over 0.5% during the quarter.
That broadly matches the UK’s own growth, and beats the eurozone’s 0.3% expansion.That broadly matches the UK’s own growth, and beats the eurozone’s 0.3% expansion.
The Commerce Department says that business investment was stronger than first thought -- rising by 2.4%, not the initial estimate of 2.1%.The Commerce Department says that business investment was stronger than first thought -- rising by 2.4%, not the initial estimate of 2.1%.
But consumer spending has been revised lower, to 3% from 3.2%.But consumer spending has been revised lower, to 3% from 3.2%.
*U.S. BUSINESS INVESTMENT IN EQUIPMENT ALSO REVISED UP *CONSUMER SPENDING IN 3Q REVISED TO 3% INCREASE FROM 3.2%*U.S. BUSINESS INVESTMENT IN EQUIPMENT ALSO REVISED UP *CONSUMER SPENDING IN 3Q REVISED TO 3% INCREASE FROM 3.2%
UpdatedUpdated
at 1.41pm GMTat 1.41pm GMT
1.18pm GMT1.18pm GMT
13:1813:18
Bank may need to rein in consumer spendingBank may need to rein in consumer spending
Observer economics editor Heather Stewart was at today’s session, and reports:Observer economics editor Heather Stewart was at today’s session, and reports:
Bank of England policymakers may need to rein in consumer lending to prevent a borrowing bubble from emerging as the economy recovers, chief economist Andy Haldane has warned.Bank of England policymakers may need to rein in consumer lending to prevent a borrowing bubble from emerging as the economy recovers, chief economist Andy Haldane has warned.
Appearing before the cross-party Treasury select committee alongside the Bank’s governor Mark Carney, Haldane warned that consumer credit – in particular personal loans – was “picking up at a rate of knots”.Appearing before the cross-party Treasury select committee alongside the Bank’s governor Mark Carney, Haldane warned that consumer credit – in particular personal loans – was “picking up at a rate of knots”.
“That ultimately might be an issue that the financial policy committee (FPC) might want to look at fairly carefully,” he said.“That ultimately might be an issue that the financial policy committee (FPC) might want to look at fairly carefully,” he said.
The FPC, created in the wake of the financial crisis, is meant to prevent future crashes by allowing the Bank to take action to control particular markets without using the blunter tool of interest rates.The FPC, created in the wake of the financial crisis, is meant to prevent future crashes by allowing the Bank to take action to control particular markets without using the blunter tool of interest rates.
The FPC has already stepped in to constrain mortgage lending; but its powers to confront a credit bubble are untested.The FPC has already stepped in to constrain mortgage lending; but its powers to confront a credit bubble are untested.
Carney told MPs he could not say much about the FPC, as he is in “purdah” as its next meeting approaches; although he confirmed that the rapid pace of credit growth was something it might need to look at.....Carney told MPs he could not say much about the FPC, as he is in “purdah” as its next meeting approaches; although he confirmed that the rapid pace of credit growth was something it might need to look at.....
Here’s her full story:Here’s her full story:
Related: Consumer spending troubling Bank of EnglandRelated: Consumer spending troubling Bank of England
UpdatedUpdated
at 2.10pm GMTat 2.10pm GMT
1.05pm GMT1.05pm GMT
13:0513:05
The pound fell as Carney, Haldane et al testified to MPs, and gave little indication that interest rates are going to rise soon:The pound fell as Carney, Haldane et al testified to MPs, and gave little indication that interest rates are going to rise soon:
12.41pm GMT12.41pm GMT
12:4112:41
Today’s session has highlighted the differences at the heart of the Bank of England, says Ranko Berich, head of market analysis at Monex Europe:Today’s session has highlighted the differences at the heart of the Bank of England, says Ranko Berich, head of market analysis at Monex Europe:
Today’s Monetary Policy Committee testimony showed quite clearly that the Bank of England is not unconditionally committed to maintaining loose monetary policy.Today’s Monetary Policy Committee testimony showed quite clearly that the Bank of England is not unconditionally committed to maintaining loose monetary policy.
Andy Haldane once again cemented his position as the most dovish MPC member, giving a very robust defence of his willingness to consider further cuts to interest rates.Andy Haldane once again cemented his position as the most dovish MPC member, giving a very robust defence of his willingness to consider further cuts to interest rates.
“It’s important to note that dissent in the MPC is not only acceptable, but desirable. The act that Haldane balances the risks to inflation differently to other MPC members is precisely why a committee votes on rates, as opposed to having one decision maker. If the entire MPC had the same view, there would be no point in the committee. Haldane’s views do have merit and if the data begins to support them more conclusively, the rest of the MPC is bound to take notice.“It’s important to note that dissent in the MPC is not only acceptable, but desirable. The act that Haldane balances the risks to inflation differently to other MPC members is precisely why a committee votes on rates, as opposed to having one decision maker. If the entire MPC had the same view, there would be no point in the committee. Haldane’s views do have merit and if the data begins to support them more conclusively, the rest of the MPC is bound to take notice.
12.21pm GMT12.21pm GMT
12:2112:21
Finally, Andrew Tyrie wants more details about the meetings taking place between the Monetary Policy Committee and Financial Policy Committee (which Carney mentioned earlier).Finally, Andrew Tyrie wants more details about the meetings taking place between the Monetary Policy Committee and Financial Policy Committee (which Carney mentioned earlier).
Q: Given the importance of these meetings, are any minutes being kept?Q: Given the importance of these meetings, are any minutes being kept?
There are two sets of minutes, governor Carney replies - one for the FPC covering financial stability issues, and one for the MPC with monetary policy points.There are two sets of minutes, governor Carney replies - one for the FPC covering financial stability issues, and one for the MPC with monetary policy points.
This looks like duplication to Tyrie, who suggests the Bank considers producing just one set of minutes - ideally for public release.This looks like duplication to Tyrie, who suggests the Bank considers producing just one set of minutes - ideally for public release.
“We’ll take a look at that”, Carney agrees.“We’ll take a look at that”, Carney agrees.
And that’s the end of the session.And that’s the end of the session.
UpdatedUpdated
at 12.22pm GMTat 12.22pm GMT
12.13pm GMT12.13pm GMT
12:1312:13
Andrew Tyrie turns the spotlight onto Andy Haldane, asking:Andrew Tyrie turns the spotlight onto Andy Haldane, asking:
A: Is Chris Giles [of the Financial Times] right when he says the MPC needs to take seriously the view of its chief economist Andy Haldane that interest rates even at 0.5 per cent are providing little economic stimulus?A: Is Chris Giles [of the Financial Times] right when he says the MPC needs to take seriously the view of its chief economist Andy Haldane that interest rates even at 0.5 per cent are providing little economic stimulus?
Haldane looks deliciously foxed for a moment (you can almost see him thinking ‘when did I say THAT?’).Haldane looks deliciously foxed for a moment (you can almost see him thinking ‘when did I say THAT?’).
I don’t recall saying that, Haldane replies, scratching his ear, and it’s not really my view.I don’t recall saying that, Haldane replies, scratching his ear, and it’s not really my view.
But, if monetary policy was too stimulatory, you’d see an economy growing faster than trend.But, if monetary policy was too stimulatory, you’d see an economy growing faster than trend.
We have an economy that is growing at trend, and slowing. And there’s not much sign that pricing pressures are picking up.We have an economy that is growing at trend, and slowing. And there’s not much sign that pricing pressures are picking up.
So can we really say that monetary policy is very loose and accommodative?So can we really say that monetary policy is very loose and accommodative?
[Chris Giles’s piece is here:[Chris Giles’s piece is here:
Time to ask why we are still in the era of ultra-low rates ]Time to ask why we are still in the era of ultra-low rates ]
UpdatedUpdated
at 12.14pm GMTat 12.14pm GMT
12.04pm GMT12.04pm GMT
12:0412:04
Kristin Forbes has picked up a hospital pass - agreeing to do some work on the precise impact that migration has on the UK economy. Good luck, professor F....Kristin Forbes has picked up a hospital pass - agreeing to do some work on the precise impact that migration has on the UK economy. Good luck, professor F....
11.52am GMT11.52am GMT
11:5211:52
So once interest rates reach 2%, and you can pull both levers (by changing rates and QE), how will you decide which one to grasp?So once interest rates reach 2%, and you can pull both levers (by changing rates and QE), how will you decide which one to grasp?
I long for the day that we face such higher-order questions, smiles Mark Carney. But he won’t give any guidance on that issue now.I long for the day that we face such higher-order questions, smiles Mark Carney. But he won’t give any guidance on that issue now.
[actually, this may be a problem for Carney’s successor, as his term will end in summer 2018][actually, this may be a problem for Carney’s successor, as his term will end in summer 2018]
11.49am GMT11.49am GMT
11:4911:49
Haldane agrees that the Bank should maintain its stock of UK government debt until interest rates have risen to “around” 2%, as Carney says. But, it’s a guide, not a trigger.Haldane agrees that the Bank should maintain its stock of UK government debt until interest rates have risen to “around” 2%, as Carney says. But, it’s a guide, not a trigger.
UpdatedUpdated
at 11.50am GMTat 11.50am GMT
11.49am GMT11.49am GMT
11:4911:49
Low interest rates, and the Bank’s quantitative easing programme, are like “two levers” pushing the economy forwards, says Gertjan Vlieghe.Low interest rates, and the Bank’s quantitative easing programme, are like “two levers” pushing the economy forwards, says Gertjan Vlieghe.
By acquiring new UK government debt (gilts) when they mature, we are keeping the QE programme topped up at £375bn and not pulling the lever back.By acquiring new UK government debt (gilts) when they mature, we are keeping the QE programme topped up at £375bn and not pulling the lever back.
11.46am GMT11.46am GMT
11:4611:46
Carney says 'when we raise bank rate' with v firm emphasis on 'when'. Is that the new fwd guidance? No ifs no butsCarney says 'when we raise bank rate' with v firm emphasis on 'when'. Is that the new fwd guidance? No ifs no buts
11.39am GMT11.39am GMT
11:3911:39
Onto quantitative easing, and Carney explains that the Bank is committed to not cutting its stock of assets until interest rate have reached 2% (the point where they can be cut again).Onto quantitative easing, and Carney explains that the Bank is committed to not cutting its stock of assets until interest rate have reached 2% (the point where they can be cut again).
11.38am GMT11.38am GMT
11:3811:38
Mark Garnier MP fears for young people who are trying to get onto the housing market.Mark Garnier MP fears for young people who are trying to get onto the housing market.
They face massive debts, as they ‘compensate’ older homeowners who have benefitted from the jump in house prices over the years.They face massive debts, as they ‘compensate’ older homeowners who have benefitted from the jump in house prices over the years.
Does it keep you awake at night, governor?Does it keep you awake at night, governor?
Without question, indebted households are more vulnerable, says Carney. And the Bank is very concious that there is less margin for error, given the amount of household debt still in the UK.Without question, indebted households are more vulnerable, says Carney. And the Bank is very concious that there is less margin for error, given the amount of household debt still in the UK.
The Bank is monitoring a large group of households to learn the impact that a rate hike will have, he adds.The Bank is monitoring a large group of households to learn the impact that a rate hike will have, he adds.
11.31am GMT11.31am GMT
11:3111:31
Could Britain be facing a ‘perfect storm’, where new housebuyers are taking on huge debts and established homeowners are running down their savings, Garnier asks.Could Britain be facing a ‘perfect storm’, where new housebuyers are taking on huge debts and established homeowners are running down their savings, Garnier asks.
Carney replies that consumer confidence is at its highest level since the crisis, and the Bank is watching closely in case problems are being stored up.Carney replies that consumer confidence is at its highest level since the crisis, and the Bank is watching closely in case problems are being stored up.
But low rates are meant to encourage consumption.But low rates are meant to encourage consumption.
UpdatedUpdated
at 11.46am GMTat 11.46am GMT
11.29am GMT11.29am GMT
11:2911:29
Should we be worried about a credit bubble in the UK, asks Mark Garnier MP?Should we be worried about a credit bubble in the UK, asks Mark Garnier MP?
Andy Haldane argues that we don’t have a debt-fuelled boom, yet anyway. The days of households with mortgages at five times their income are over.Andy Haldane argues that we don’t have a debt-fuelled boom, yet anyway. The days of households with mortgages at five times their income are over.
There are households with income multiples of three to four times, though - but a rise in wages should provide insurance for the time when rates riseThere are households with income multiples of three to four times, though - but a rise in wages should provide insurance for the time when rates rise
Unsecured credit growth is running at 8%, much slower than before the crisis.Unsecured credit growth is running at 8%, much slower than before the crisis.
So the housing market is picking up pace, but it’s not racing away - with mortgage approvals also below the pre-crisis level. But action might be needed.....So the housing market is picking up pace, but it’s not racing away - with mortgage approvals also below the pre-crisis level. But action might be needed.....
UpdatedUpdated
at 12.21pm GMTat 12.21pm GMT
11.21am GMT11.21am GMT
11:2111:21
Wes Streeting then asks: What are the macro-prudential implications of the government’s changes to tax credits?Wes Streeting then asks: What are the macro-prudential implications of the government’s changes to tax credits?
Carney: We always base our forecasts on decisions that have been taken. So I think we can wait another 24 hours [for the autumn statement to be delivered].Carney: We always base our forecasts on decisions that have been taken. So I think we can wait another 24 hours [for the autumn statement to be delivered].
But you must have done work since the tax credit plan was announced in the July budget...But you must have done work since the tax credit plan was announced in the July budget...
We base our forecasts on the totality of fiscal policy, Carney continues, deftly passing the buck (or perhaps puck) to the Office for Budget Responsibility who does the nitty-gritty assessment.We base our forecasts on the totality of fiscal policy, Carney continues, deftly passing the buck (or perhaps puck) to the Office for Budget Responsibility who does the nitty-gritty assessment.
Our broad view of the UK economy is that domestic demand is quite robust, and it has to be given the fiscal consolidation and the weak global economic picture.Our broad view of the UK economy is that domestic demand is quite robust, and it has to be given the fiscal consolidation and the weak global economic picture.
UpdatedUpdated
at 11.24am GMTat 11.24am GMT
11.14am GMT11.14am GMT
11:1411:14
Wes Streeting MP moves onto Britain’s productivity puzzle -- will we ever recover our pre-crisis productivity rates?Wes Streeting MP moves onto Britain’s productivity puzzle -- will we ever recover our pre-crisis productivity rates?
Carney says there is an ‘upside risk’ that productivity increases faster than the Bank expects.Carney says there is an ‘upside risk’ that productivity increases faster than the Bank expects.
But here are reasons to expect lower productivity growth in the long term.But here are reasons to expect lower productivity growth in the long term.
Financial productivity before the crisis was partly due to unsustainable credit growth - we don’t want that again.Financial productivity before the crisis was partly due to unsustainable credit growth - we don’t want that again.
And North Sea production, and thus productivity, is likely to fall despite technological improvements.And North Sea production, and thus productivity, is likely to fall despite technological improvements.
UpdatedUpdated
at 11.14am GMTat 11.14am GMT
11.09am GMT11.09am GMT
11:0911:09
Prof Kristin Forbes also sounds confident that the UK economy is recovering, and is unlikely to require negative interest rates:Prof Kristin Forbes also sounds confident that the UK economy is recovering, and is unlikely to require negative interest rates:
Kristin Forbes tells #tsc: "All in all, the evidence is of quite a tight labour market".Kristin Forbes tells #tsc: "All in all, the evidence is of quite a tight labour market".
11.06am GMT11.06am GMT
11:0611:06
Carney then launches into a long explanation into the factors that are keeping borrowing costs at record lows worldwide.Carney then launches into a long explanation into the factors that are keeping borrowing costs at record lows worldwide.
He cites demographic changes, and the impact of technology on the labour market which risks ‘hollowing out’ the jobs market.He cites demographic changes, and the impact of technology on the labour market which risks ‘hollowing out’ the jobs market.
10.59am GMT
10:59
Carney: We aren't planning to abolish cash
Governor Carney tries to squash the debate -- perhaps fearing a panic on the streets if the public think their bank notes are to be pulped.
He insists:
There are no plans to abolish cash at the Bank of England.
Andy Haldane was simply conducting “a thought experiment with his speech on the issue, he add. As any chief economist would do.
Carney: "There are no plans to abolish cash; as Mr Haldane just said, it's a thought experiment" [subtext: he's a very naughty boy]
10.54am GMT
10:54
Baker plays his trump card at Andy Haldane, asking if he knows economics professor Kevin Dowd.
He taught me, Haldane replies.
In that case, Baker smirks, you’ll appreciate this 31-page report rebutting your “How low can you go” speech (in which Haldane outlines how cash could be abolished to allow negative interest rates to be imposed). He even waves it at the committee.
“31 pages?”, Haldane blinks back.
(that’s your lunchtime reading sorted, Andy)..
Updated
at 11.23am GMT
10.51am GMT
10:51
Quote of day so far. Haldane on interest rates 'as best we can tell going back to Babylonian times we're in unchartered territory' #tsc
10.47am GMT
10:47
Haldane defends views on negative rates
Steve Baker asks Andy Haldane about his recent claim that UK interest rates are the lowest they’ve ever been.
Yes, Haldane replies, I was challenged about that so we went back and looked carefully.
As far as we can tell, going back to Babylonian times, we’re in uncharted territory.
And yet, Baker replies, you want to get even lower. You’ve suggested abolishing cash, cancelling certain bank notes, in a speech.
How do you think negative rates would affect the UK economy?
I was not arguing for the abolition of cash, or invalidating some bank notes, Haldane replies.
But it’s worth thinking through the implications. It sounds a bit wacky. But 95% of all money is digital, and pays interest.
The final component, the currency component -- what are the implications of digitising it to pay interest rates at good times, and negative rates in bad times?
Baker: So you think we could reach a point where people are so worried to hold cash that we must pay interest rates?
Not a normal situation, no, Haldane replies. But it’s a theoretical possibility.
10.39am GMT
10:39
Steve Baker MP asks: why is UK inflation is so low (minus 0.1% today), and forecast to stay so low, even though the Bank is running a stimulative monetary policy?
Carney blames the fall in oil prices, which was much steeper than expected.
Q: So you didn’t think that more quantitative easing would get inflation on track?
No, QE wouldn’t move the oil price.... and we’re looking through the current oil price weakness.
10.34am GMT
10:34
Tyrie asks:
Are you all saying that the next move in Bank policy might be to use the counter-cyclical tools controlled by the Financial Policy Committee, not a change in borrowing costs from the MPC?
That’s possible, Vlieghe replies.
10.33am GMT
10:33
Jacob Rees-Mogg now asks about the suggestion that global interest rates might need to be cut from their current record lows, into negative territory.
Mark Carney agrees that the ‘equilibrium rate’ is lower than in the past.
However:
I don’t think the most likely scenario is that the equilibrium rate in the UK is negative, and that we need negative interest rates.
By recent tradition, the Bank of England governor is never wrong, jokes Rees-Mogg, winning a cheeky smile from Carney.....
....and a world-weary grunt of “It has been known....” from chairman Andrew Tyrie.
But what would the bank do if Carney is wrong, and the Bank needs to ease policy?
MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe suggests that more quantitative easing might make sense.
It’s not appropriate at this stage to consider abolishing cash (so negative rates could be imposed on electronic deposits). And there are big problems with “helicopter money” or cancelling the UK government gilts we hold, Vlieghe adds, as it would damage the Bank’s credibility to fighting inflation.
Rees Mogg asks about Haldane's recent speech mooting negative rates. New boy Jan Vlieghe sees 'really big problems' with helicopter money.
Updated
at 10.44am GMT
10.24am GMT
10:24
Haldane: Interest rates could go down, not up
The Bank has just published testimony from its chief economist, Andy Haldane.
In it, Haldane warns that the world economy faces “headwinds” from the slowdown in emerging markets:
These countries benefitted from a large inflow of capital, and a build-up of debt, in the aftermath of the crisis. Those capital flows now appear to have gone into reverse, slowing growth.
I expect this “third phase” of the crisis to be reasonably protracted in its impact on world growth. That is why, in my view, risks to the UK from the external environment are skewed to the downside, as they are in the Bank’s latest Inflation Report projections.
And Haldane also warns that monetary policy may need to be eased, not tightened, in the short term:
Given the balance of risks, I have a neutral stance on the future direction of monetary policy. In my view, policy needs to be poised to move in either direction in the period ahead, depending on how the data and risks, domestic and international, play out.
When rates do rise, I expect any rises to be both gradual and limited, in line with the Committee’s guidance.
10.18am GMT
10:18
Carney: @bankofengland could use monetary policy to ensure financial stability; but MPC is not 'first, or even second line of defence'.
10.17am GMT
10:17
Jacob Rees-Mogg MP asks whether there are tensions between the Bank’s monetary policy arm, and its macro-prudential arm. Are they working together, or obstructing each other’s goals?
Excellent question, Carney replies. There have been more joint meetings between the Financial Policy Committee (responsible for financial stability) and the Monetary Policy Committee (responsible for inflation) to ensure each knows what the other is up to.
In short, they’re working together:
Jacob Rees Mogg asks about MPC vs FPC contradictions; Carney @bankofengland: 'macroprudential policy is complementing monetary policy'
[the issue here is that ultra-loose monetary policy, and record low interest rates, can encourage reckless borrowing or a bubble in the housing market.]
Carney outlines how the FPC could use its ‘counter-cyclical’ tools to cool the lending market, which would effectively push up borrowing costs.
And the governor then flags up that the MPC could actually raise interest rates to cool the economy:
It is possible that the MPC could take monetary action for ultimately financial stability reasons....
If the view is that other macro-prudential tools are exhausted, we could use monetary policy to address macro-prudential issues.
Updated
at 10.19am GMT
10.11am GMT
10:11
So you’ve not got any examples of attempts to pressure the Bank and undermine independence, Andrew Tyrie asks.
Carney confirms this is correct.
Andrew Tyrie kicks off asking if Carney feels the Bank's independence is under pressure; Carney sounds relaxed.
Updated
at 10.20am GMT
10.10am GMT
10:10
10.09am GMT
10:09
Carney: Pressure on central banks has increased
Committee chairman Andrew Tyrie promises us a couple of very interesting hours on monetary policy (hurrah).
He starts by asking Mark Carney: is the Bank of England truly independent, or is there any ‘back seat driving’ from politicians?
Carney says that the pressure on central banks has increased in recent years. That’s totally appropriate, given the power they now hold.
Given the burden on monetary policy since the crisis, there have been some tendencies to challenging that independence, Carney continues. Particularly in the United States, given the way the Federal Reserve is overseen.
In the UK, the Bank does not have independence over its objectives. We have clear goals set by parliament, and we work within set constraints to achieve it.
That “constrained discretion” also applies to the new powers for financial stability that the Bank was granted in 2012 after the financial crash.
10.04am GMT
10:04
And we’re off....
10.03am GMT
10:03
Alastair McCaig, market analyst at IG, hopes that Mark Carney will provide more insight into the current state of the UK economy.
He doesn’t expect the governor will be bowled out by MPs:
Mr Carney’s reputation for handling tricky questions is well founded and these verbal jousts invariably see the Canadian coming away with his reputation enhanced.
10.01am GMT
10:01
The session is being webcast live, here.
9.59am GMT
09:59
Hawk-spotting in Westminster this morning: Carney, Haldane et al up at Treasury select committee, talking about the Inflation Report.
9.55am GMT
09:55
Just five minutes to go until the UK parliament’s Treasury committee begin questioning the Bank of England about its latest quarterly inflation report.
The witnesses in the Thatcher Room are:
Updated
at 9.55am GMT
9.47am GMT
09:47
The Moscow and Istanbul stock markets have both fallen sharply, after Turkey downed a Russian jet at the Syria border:
Cristian Maggio, the London-based head of emerging-market research at Toronto Dominion Bank, says the incident is “an accident waiting to happen”.
He told Bloomberg:
“This episode just shows that the market is heavily underestimating geopolitical risks in the region.”
My colleague Matt Weaver is tracking the latest developments here:
Related: Russian fighter jet downed near Turkey-Syria border – live updates
Updated
at 9.47am GMT
9.20am GMT
09:20
German companies are increasingly confident, despite the problems stacking up at home and abroad.
That’s according to IFO, the Munich-based thinktank, which just reported that the Paris attacks have not dampened business optimism in Germany.
IFO’s business climate index has hit its highest level since June 2014, up from 108.2 last month to 109.0 for November.
Ifo Business Climate Index for #Germany rises to 17-month high of 109.0 in November (consensus: 108.2) pic.twitter.com/dh6Ppg0lzb
German bosses reported that current conditions, and future expectations, have both improved this month.
That’s a little curious, given scenes of terrorism in Paris, the refugee crisis, the Volkswagen scandal, and the slowdown in emerging markets that has hit German exports.
Summing up odd Ifo - neither Paris attacks nor VW nor emerging markets nor refugees having an impact on German business sentiment
German #PMI (yesterday) & IFO (today) surveys for November beat expectations. Growth momentum looks safe thanks to a booming services sector
Updated
at 9.20am GMT
9.08am GMT
09:08
Greek government condemns bombing
Helena Smith
The Greek government spokesman has just condemned the early morning (3:30 AM) bomb attack on the offices of the country’s business federation, reports Helena Smith our correspondent in Athens.
“The government denounces the bomb attack on the offices of SEV in Syntagma,” said Olga Gerovasiliou, adding that its “political stance” was one “of absolute condemnation of such actions.”
The main opposition New Democracy party has also just condemned the “terrorist attack, saying:
“Such actions harm the image of the country and the real interests of Greeks. We call on the government to intensify its efforts to find and punish the perpetrators.”
Police are said to be very worried that this could mark an attempt at insurrection by Greek anarchists.
They have been encouraged by imprisoned members of their community to launch a “black December”, to restart the anarchist insurgency in and outside prisons.
Updated
at 12.27pm GMT
8.52am GMT
08:52
Turkish lira falls after jet shot down
Reports that the Turkish military have shot down a Russian-made plane near the Syria border are weighing on the markets:
Related: Turkey shoots down jet near border with Syria
Footage of the warplane downed by the Turkish airforce along #Syria border, allegedly a SU24 pic.twitter.com/tyiOmCzsug https://t.co/ZTDY1GnHn1
The Turkish lira has taken a hit, weakening to 2.86 lira to the US dollar, from 2.845.
Lira weakens further to trade at 2.8654 after Presidency says the downed plane is Russian Su-24 fencer pic.twitter.com/E8DfDrRqJC
Updated
at 8.53am GMT
8.50am GMT
08:50
Airline stocks are leading the fallers on the FTSE 100, with easyJet losing 3.9% and IAG (British Airways’ parent company) down 3%.
Hotel chains are also falling. Shares in Intercontinental Hotels are down 3.3% in London. And France’s Accor hotel chain has dropped by almost 5% on the Paris bourse.
That follows a reports that passenger bookings for flights arriving in Paris during the Christmas period have dropped by 13% compared to last year, following the terrorist attacks in the capital.
Paris suffers slump in Christmas bookings after attacks https://t.co/2D7qXRu0uo pic.twitter.com/JKElAU4fXf
8.42am GMT
08:42
European stock markets are all in the red this morning - with the main indices losing almost 1% in early trading.
In London, the FTSE 100 is down 55 points, or 0.9%, at 6,250.
And Germany’s DAX dropped almost 1% at the open.
Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex, says this morning’s GDP report (see here) dampened the mood in Frankfurt:
It wasn’t the best morning for the DAX, which fell by 110 points soon after the bell.
With Germany’s third quarter GDP confirmed at 0.3%, it was revealed the main drag on the country’s growth was its two-year low hitting net trade, with the increasing disparity between limp exports and surging imports lopping 0.4% off of the Q3 figure.
8.30am GMT
08:30
This chart from the FT highlights how German export have hit their lowest level since the last quarter of 2012.
8.23am GMT
08:23
Over in Greece, relief that Athens will get a €2bn bailout payment has been overshadowed by a bomb explosion near Syntagma Square, the site of the capital’s parliament.
A device went off outside the offices of the Hellenic Business Federation around 3.30am local time. No-one was injured.
Police believe it was carried out by domestic guerrilla groups, according to the Kathimerini newspaper. They have carried out similar attacks before - but this is the first bomb since Alexis Tsipras came to power in January.
Police forensic experts have been searching for evidence:
8.05am GMT
08:05
Economist: Consumer spending keeps Germany out of recession
Here’s another worrying sign - German companies aren’t investing as much on new machinery and factories.
Today’s GDP report shows that plant and equipment spending shrank by 0.8% in the last quarter.
And gross capital formation (the amount companies spent on investment and stocking their inventories) shank by 0.3%.
That performance usually only happens when Germany’s economy is shrinking, according to economist Clays Vistesen of Pantheon Macroeconomics.
He’s tweeted a chart showing how consumer spending is the main growth engine:
Germany ought to be in a recession, but isn't. Adjusting to permanently lower growth in China? pic.twitter.com/HRMpxTZsk1
Updated
at 8.05am GMT
7.58am GMT
07:58
Analysts at Credit Suisse reckon Germany’s decade of export dominance could be over, as China’s economy slows:
Nice Credit Suisse chart - Germany's decade of outperforming Eurozone growth is over. pic.twitter.com/cWc1Lwc8uK
Updated
at 7.59am GMT
7.56am GMT
07:56
German net trade hits two-year low
Germany’s economy has being dragged back by its weakest trade performance in two years.
The Federal Statistics Office has just confirmed that Germany’s GDP rose by just 0.3% in the July-to-September quarter, matching the initial estimate.
But we now have proper detail of how the economy fared - and it’s provides new evidence that Germany is suffering from the slowdown in emerging economies.
Exports rose by just 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, compared to estimates of a 0.4% rise. Imports, though, jumped by 1.1%.
And the resulting net trade deficit wiped 0.4% of Germany’s growth rate -- the weakest since 2013.
Europe’s powerhouse economy was left relying on domestic spending. Private consumption rose by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, as German shoppers dipped into their wallets and purses.
And government spending rose by 1.3% - the biggest increase since early 2009
An official at the Statistics Office explains (via Reuters):
“Of course, the refugee costs are playing a role here. These are the first effects on state spending.”
The jump in imports may cheer commentators who argue that Germany needs to spend more to help the eurozone economy recover. But weaker exports highlight renewed weakness in developing markets.... Reaction to follow....
Updated
at 8.14am GMT
7.36am GMT
07:36
The agenda: Mr Carney testifies to MPs
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
Coming up... Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, is testifying to parliament today from 10am GMT.
He’ll be quizzed on his view of the UK economy, after the Bank cut its growth and inflation forecasts two weeks ago - and indicated interest rates may not rise for another year.
Carney will be accompanied by chief economist Andy Haldane, and independent rate-setters Gertjan Vlieghe and Kristin Forbes.
Perhaps MPs could ask Haldane to elaborate on his thoughts about smart robots, which could eventually take over one in two UK jobs...
#UK economy today: CBI retail sales; BOE's Carney, Haldane, Vlieghe, Forbes speak in Parliament
We also get fresh estimates of German economic growth in the third quarter of 2015 this morning.
Then at 1.30pm GMT, the second estimate of US GDP for the last quarter is released.
Economists expect an growth upgrade, from an annualised rate of 1.4% to over 2%.
US Q3 GDP second reading to be the highlight of the day - TDS https://t.co/GN8V3zRpV7
We’ll also be tracking the commodities markets, after copper hit a 6.5 year low yesterday.
Rolls-Royce could be interesting - the engine maker is outlining a new strategy, to tackle (it hopes) a big drop in demand.
European stock markets are expected to dip at the start of trading, after an unenthusiastic session in Asia.
Our European opening calls: $FTSE 6288 down 18 $DAX 11071 down 21 $CAC 4872 down 17 $IBEX 10248 down 30 $MIB 22189 down 105
We’ll be tracking all the events through the day....
Updated
at 9.31am GMT