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Washington Is Next on François Hollande’s Tour to Press Allies for Anti-ISIS Coalition Washington Is Next on François Hollande’s Tour to Press Allies for Anti-ISIS Coalition
(about 1 hour later)
PARIS — President François Hollande of France heads to Washington on Tuesday as a self-described wartime president, with his political future at stake.PARIS — President François Hollande of France heads to Washington on Tuesday as a self-described wartime president, with his political future at stake.
France is pressing hard for its allies and friends to step up their efforts against the Islamic State, so Mr. Hollande has been on an extraordinary global tour this week to win them over. He met here Monday morning with Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain, who promised to press the British Parliament to approve military action in Syria.France is pressing hard for its allies and friends to step up their efforts against the Islamic State, so Mr. Hollande has been on an extraordinary global tour this week to win them over. He met here Monday morning with Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain, who promised to press the British Parliament to approve military action in Syria.
After seeing President Obama on Tuesday, Mr. Hollande will be off to Moscow. By Sunday evening he will also have met with the German, Italian, Canadian and Chinese leaders, plus the European Union president, Donald Tusk, and the United Nations secretary general, Ban Ki-moon.After seeing President Obama on Tuesday, Mr. Hollande will be off to Moscow. By Sunday evening he will also have met with the German, Italian, Canadian and Chinese leaders, plus the European Union president, Donald Tusk, and the United Nations secretary general, Ban Ki-moon.
Mr. Hollande is counting on the new reach of the jihadists abroad — massacring 130 civilians in Paris and taking responsibility for bringing down a Russian airliner full of civilians over Egypt — to change assumptions in Washington, Moscow and London and prompt a serious military effort to take down the self-styled caliphate. He is calling on Washington and Moscow to “unite our forces” in a “wide and single” international coalition against the Islamic State.Mr. Hollande is counting on the new reach of the jihadists abroad — massacring 130 civilians in Paris and taking responsibility for bringing down a Russian airliner full of civilians over Egypt — to change assumptions in Washington, Moscow and London and prompt a serious military effort to take down the self-styled caliphate. He is calling on Washington and Moscow to “unite our forces” in a “wide and single” international coalition against the Islamic State.
But Mr. Hollande is also pressing for a faster political resolution to the Syrian civil war, a senior French official said, hoping that Moscow will be more willing now to push President Bashar al-Assad aside, so long as the Syrian regime stabilizes and Russia’s interests are secure.But Mr. Hollande is also pressing for a faster political resolution to the Syrian civil war, a senior French official said, hoping that Moscow will be more willing now to push President Bashar al-Assad aside, so long as the Syrian regime stabilizes and Russia’s interests are secure.
For the unpopular Mr. Hollande, there is much at stake, with regional elections in two weeks and presidential primaries next year. A politician of great tactical skill, he must reassure the French and show that he is a wartime leader able to influence policy toward Syria and take an important role in a re-energized battle with Islamic State. For the unpopular Mr. Hollande, there is much at stake, with regional elections in two weeks and presidential primaries next year. A politician of great tactical skill, he must reassure the French and show that he is a wartime leader able to influence policy toward Syria and take an important role in a re-energized battle with the Islamic State.
Mr. Hollande’s political needs are something President Obama may well understand. France, in large part because of its military actions against Islamic radicalism in Mali and Syria, is probably now Washington’s favorite European ally. Mr. Hollande is bringing along his defense minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, with the aim, a senior French official said, “to intensify our cooperation,” make it “as operational as possible” and “verify in what areas we can go a little farther.”Mr. Hollande’s political needs are something President Obama may well understand. France, in large part because of its military actions against Islamic radicalism in Mali and Syria, is probably now Washington’s favorite European ally. Mr. Hollande is bringing along his defense minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, with the aim, a senior French official said, “to intensify our cooperation,” make it “as operational as possible” and “verify in what areas we can go a little farther.”
But Mr. Obama has been deeply reluctant to get the American military more involved with the Syrian mess, choosing instead to protect the Kurds and bomb the Islamic State intermittently. With France now so forward-leaning, Mr. Obama is expected to give Mr. Hollande fervent rhetorical support, but Washington is not likely to get into anything like a “coalition” with Russia.But Mr. Obama has been deeply reluctant to get the American military more involved with the Syrian mess, choosing instead to protect the Kurds and bomb the Islamic State intermittently. With France now so forward-leaning, Mr. Obama is expected to give Mr. Hollande fervent rhetorical support, but Washington is not likely to get into anything like a “coalition” with Russia.
The White House on Monday repeated that the United States would welcome more Russian cooperation in Syria but that Moscow would have to agree to help push out Mr. Assad.The White House on Monday repeated that the United States would welcome more Russian cooperation in Syria but that Moscow would have to agree to help push out Mr. Assad.
“As long as Russia is engaged in a significant military effort to prop up Bashar al-Assad, that is only going to make it more difficult for that political transition to take place,” said Josh Earnest, the White House press secretary.“As long as Russia is engaged in a significant military effort to prop up Bashar al-Assad, that is only going to make it more difficult for that political transition to take place,” said Josh Earnest, the White House press secretary.
Mr. Obama’s team was especially sensitive to any suggestion that Russia could trade its way out of sanctions imposed on it for its annexation of Crimea and its intervention in eastern Ukraine. France at times has been reluctant to go along with some of the most stringent measures against Moscow, and Mr. Obama will press Mr. Hollande to stand firm.Mr. Obama’s team was especially sensitive to any suggestion that Russia could trade its way out of sanctions imposed on it for its annexation of Crimea and its intervention in eastern Ukraine. France at times has been reluctant to go along with some of the most stringent measures against Moscow, and Mr. Obama will press Mr. Hollande to stand firm.
“I don’t imagine a scenario in which sanctions relief is offered to Russia in exchange for greater contributions” to the fight against the Islamic State, Mr. Earnest said.“I don’t imagine a scenario in which sanctions relief is offered to Russia in exchange for greater contributions” to the fight against the Islamic State, Mr. Earnest said.
French officials on Monday were careful to stay away from words like “coalition” or “alliance,” speaking instead of “coordination,” the same word Mr. Obama uses to describe how the United States and Russia are working around one another in Syria.French officials on Monday were careful to stay away from words like “coalition” or “alliance,” speaking instead of “coordination,” the same word Mr. Obama uses to describe how the United States and Russia are working around one another in Syria.
But Mr. Hollande has fewer qualms about Moscow than Mr. Obama does. A senior French official said on Monday, using the Arabic for Islamic State, “We are the friends of all those who fight against Daesh with effectiveness.” But Mr. Hollande has fewer qualms about Moscow than Mr. Obama does. A senior French official said on Monday, using an Arabic acronym for the Islamic State, “We are the friends of all those who fight against Daesh with effectiveness.”
In both Washington and Moscow, Mr. Hollande will also insist that the fight against the Islamic State should not mean that Mr. Assad stays in power. France is concerned that such a compromise might come out of the political negotiations over Syria in Vienna, but is insisting that Mr. Assad must go, if after a period of political transition.In both Washington and Moscow, Mr. Hollande will also insist that the fight against the Islamic State should not mean that Mr. Assad stays in power. France is concerned that such a compromise might come out of the political negotiations over Syria in Vienna, but is insisting that Mr. Assad must go, if after a period of political transition.
Like most French presidents, who have vast powers, Mr. Hollande finds it easier to act decisively in foreign policy than in domestic affairs. Having shown little interest in global issues in his Socialist Party career before becoming president in 2012, narrowly beating the conservative incumbent, Nicolas Sarkozy, Mr. Hollande, critics note, has been tougher on radical Islam abroad than he has at home.Like most French presidents, who have vast powers, Mr. Hollande finds it easier to act decisively in foreign policy than in domestic affairs. Having shown little interest in global issues in his Socialist Party career before becoming president in 2012, narrowly beating the conservative incumbent, Nicolas Sarkozy, Mr. Hollande, critics note, has been tougher on radical Islam abroad than he has at home.
Unloved domestically, the Socialist president has moved quickly to the right after the attacks of Nov. 13, authorizing house arrests and nearly 800 police raids without warrants under harsh antiterrorism rules, calling for constitutional change and confounding his divided opposition.Unloved domestically, the Socialist president has moved quickly to the right after the attacks of Nov. 13, authorizing house arrests and nearly 800 police raids without warrants under harsh antiterrorism rules, calling for constitutional change and confounding his divided opposition.
Is his shift sincere or tactical? “With Hollande you always have the feeling that everything is tactical,” said Christine Ockrent, a political commentator on France Culture. “But this time around the shock has been enormous; it’s a very different blow than in January. And Hollande’s reaction has been both massive and in proportion,” with tough language coming all week from Prime Minister Manuel Valls, Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve and the defense minister, Mr. Le Drian.Is his shift sincere or tactical? “With Hollande you always have the feeling that everything is tactical,” said Christine Ockrent, a political commentator on France Culture. “But this time around the shock has been enormous; it’s a very different blow than in January. And Hollande’s reaction has been both massive and in proportion,” with tough language coming all week from Prime Minister Manuel Valls, Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve and the defense minister, Mr. Le Drian.
But Mr. Hollande’s actions are also deeply political.But Mr. Hollande’s actions are also deeply political.
“Hollande is in a very special situation where a year ago no one put a cent on him getting re-elected, but now I think you’d be risking your money to bet against him,” said Pierre Haski, a columnist for the weekly L’Obs and co-founder of the web newspaper Rue89.“Hollande is in a very special situation where a year ago no one put a cent on him getting re-elected, but now I think you’d be risking your money to bet against him,” said Pierre Haski, a columnist for the weekly L’Obs and co-founder of the web newspaper Rue89.
Having spent his career tending to the intricacies of his quarrelsome party, said Guillaume Tabard, editor of the conservative daily Le Figaro, Mr. Hollande has now made “a Copernican revolution,” turning his back on the social concerns of the left and taking a Gaullist tone.Having spent his career tending to the intricacies of his quarrelsome party, said Guillaume Tabard, editor of the conservative daily Le Figaro, Mr. Hollande has now made “a Copernican revolution,” turning his back on the social concerns of the left and taking a Gaullist tone.
Françoise Fressoz of Le Monde wrote that “this time he crossed the Rubicon, quitting the circles of the left to go shopping in the market stalls of the right and sometimes even of the extreme right, protected from the criticism of his own camp by the shield of national unity.”Françoise Fressoz of Le Monde wrote that “this time he crossed the Rubicon, quitting the circles of the left to go shopping in the market stalls of the right and sometimes even of the extreme right, protected from the criticism of his own camp by the shield of national unity.”
By contrast, the reaction from the center-right from Mr. Sarkozy and his main rivals, including former prime minister and foreign minister Alain Juppé, has been divided.By contrast, the reaction from the center-right from Mr. Sarkozy and his main rivals, including former prime minister and foreign minister Alain Juppé, has been divided.
At first Mr. Sarkozy sounded the note of national unity, but by Monday, he and his Republican Party were critical of Mr. Hollande and the government for previous failures on national security in a messy debate in the National Assembly.At first Mr. Sarkozy sounded the note of national unity, but by Monday, he and his Republican Party were critical of Mr. Hollande and the government for previous failures on national security in a messy debate in the National Assembly.
That harshness was criticized by Mr. Juppé, who struck the same notes of unity as Mr. Hollande. “The confusion on the right makes Hollande and Valls seem very clear, at least in the short term,” Ms. Ockrent said.That harshness was criticized by Mr. Juppé, who struck the same notes of unity as Mr. Hollande. “The confusion on the right makes Hollande and Valls seem very clear, at least in the short term,” Ms. Ockrent said.
And hanging over everyone is Marine Le Pen and the ascendant far-right National Front, some of whose policies even Mr. Hollande is adopting. Ms. Le Pen has been warning about radical Islamists, Muslim extremism, underground mosques and a “borderless” Europe for years now, and she is widely expected to do well in December. Nothing in the last three years has deterred her rise.And hanging over everyone is Marine Le Pen and the ascendant far-right National Front, some of whose policies even Mr. Hollande is adopting. Ms. Le Pen has been warning about radical Islamists, Muslim extremism, underground mosques and a “borderless” Europe for years now, and she is widely expected to do well in December. Nothing in the last three years has deterred her rise.
In the vastly more important presidential elections of May 2017, Ms. Le Pen is widely viewed as almost sure to win a spot in the second-round runoff between the two top finishers and might even top the poll. But anyone who gets into the runoff with her — most likely Mr. Sarkozy, Mr. Juppé or Mr. Hollande — is considered sure to win the presidency.In the vastly more important presidential elections of May 2017, Ms. Le Pen is widely viewed as almost sure to win a spot in the second-round runoff between the two top finishers and might even top the poll. But anyone who gets into the runoff with her — most likely Mr. Sarkozy, Mr. Juppé or Mr. Hollande — is considered sure to win the presidency.
So for Mr. Hollande, the stakes are very high, both for his reputation and for his future.So for Mr. Hollande, the stakes are very high, both for his reputation and for his future.