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| World Powers Try Anew for Syria Cease-Fire, but Path Is Tortuous | World Powers Try Anew for Syria Cease-Fire, but Path Is Tortuous |
| (about 3 hours later) | |
| UNITED NATIONS — The skies over Syria are crowded with foreign warplanes. Tens of thousands of civilians are on the run. The Islamic State has executed terrorist attacks on three continents in three weeks. | UNITED NATIONS — The skies over Syria are crowded with foreign warplanes. Tens of thousands of civilians are on the run. The Islamic State has executed terrorist attacks on three continents in three weeks. |
| And yet world powers with deep stakes in the bloody four-year-old conflict in Syria have, for the first time, promised to press their allies on the battlefield to put down their weapons and start talking. | And yet world powers with deep stakes in the bloody four-year-old conflict in Syria have, for the first time, promised to press their allies on the battlefield to put down their weapons and start talking. |
| So how do they get from here to there, and what would it take to reach even a limited cessation of hostilities? | So how do they get from here to there, and what would it take to reach even a limited cessation of hostilities? |
| The path to any cease-fire and political talks is long, diplomats say. And it is lined with uncertainty and danger, not least for the United Nations, which must do much of the maneuvering. | The path to any cease-fire and political talks is long, diplomats say. And it is lined with uncertainty and danger, not least for the United Nations, which must do much of the maneuvering. |
| According to the ambitious pledges made by world leaders last weekend in Vienna, the United Nations is supposed to convene talks among Syrian government and rebel representatives by Jan. 1. And it is supposed to give its blessings to a new mission to monitor a cease-fire. Who would sign up for such a mission in Syria remains a mystery. And the Security Council is in no rush to authorize a mission until there is a cease-fire to monitor. | According to the ambitious pledges made by world leaders last weekend in Vienna, the United Nations is supposed to convene talks among Syrian government and rebel representatives by Jan. 1. And it is supposed to give its blessings to a new mission to monitor a cease-fire. Who would sign up for such a mission in Syria remains a mystery. And the Security Council is in no rush to authorize a mission until there is a cease-fire to monitor. |
| The prospect of even a limited cease-fire seems slim, but it is not quite as quixotic as it may seem at first blush. There have been small, short-lived local truces before. One example that Staffan de Mistura, the United Nations mediator, cited as a model was a local agreement struck in September between Ahrar al-Sham, backed by Qatar, and Iranian officials, who support the government. It involved an exchange of territory in two different parts of the country and an exchange of populations, depending on whether they were Sunni or Shiite, and in so doing raised the specter of forcibly moving Syrians based on their sect. | The prospect of even a limited cease-fire seems slim, but it is not quite as quixotic as it may seem at first blush. There have been small, short-lived local truces before. One example that Staffan de Mistura, the United Nations mediator, cited as a model was a local agreement struck in September between Ahrar al-Sham, backed by Qatar, and Iranian officials, who support the government. It involved an exchange of territory in two different parts of the country and an exchange of populations, depending on whether they were Sunni or Shiite, and in so doing raised the specter of forcibly moving Syrians based on their sect. |
| Late Wednesday came reports that several major rebel factions, including Jaish al-Islam, backed by Saudi Arabia, were trying to reach a 15-day cease-fire deal with the government in the long-besieged and bombarded area known as East Ghouta, an expanse of suburbs that adjoins the capital, Damascus, but has long been cut off from it by the conflict. The proposed truce would open all checkpoints into East Ghouta, allowing humanitarian aid to get in and civilians to get out, according to several antigovernment activists in the area. By Thursday, no agreement had been reached and each side accused the other of refusing to accept the deal. | |
| Any nationwide cease-fire, Mr. de Mistura was quick to point out, would have to be brokered by those countries that made the pledge in Vienna — “the very countries supporting, sponsoring various sides of the conflict,” he said. | Any nationwide cease-fire, Mr. de Mistura was quick to point out, would have to be brokered by those countries that made the pledge in Vienna — “the very countries supporting, sponsoring various sides of the conflict,” he said. |
| “They were all in that room.” | “They were all in that room.” |
| The one concrete achievement that diplomats repeatedly cite is that all the countries involved were in the room at all, chiefly Saudi Arabia and Iran, bitter regional rivals, and both patrons of the war. They have agreed to meet again, in mid-December. Moreover, the Paris attacks have led to a reluctant convergence of interests: Russia and France, which agree on very little as far as the future of Syria is concerned, have both carried out airstrikes on the Islamic State stronghold of Raqqa this week. | The one concrete achievement that diplomats repeatedly cite is that all the countries involved were in the room at all, chiefly Saudi Arabia and Iran, bitter regional rivals, and both patrons of the war. They have agreed to meet again, in mid-December. Moreover, the Paris attacks have led to a reluctant convergence of interests: Russia and France, which agree on very little as far as the future of Syria is concerned, have both carried out airstrikes on the Islamic State stronghold of Raqqa this week. |
| Still, the challenges ahead are formidable — or as one United Nations diplomat put it, “There are many things that can go wrong.” | Still, the challenges ahead are formidable — or as one United Nations diplomat put it, “There are many things that can go wrong.” |
| First, who would be covered by a cease-fire? So far they have agreed only that neither the Islamic State nor its outlawed cousin, the Nusra Front, can join the truce because they are on the United Nations’ list of banned terrorist organizations. That list could grow. Indeed, Russia has targeted several other rebel groups, and this week, its foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, flatly said that his country was going after “all who one way or another practice and preach terrorist ideology.” | First, who would be covered by a cease-fire? So far they have agreed only that neither the Islamic State nor its outlawed cousin, the Nusra Front, can join the truce because they are on the United Nations’ list of banned terrorist organizations. That list could grow. Indeed, Russia has targeted several other rebel groups, and this week, its foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, flatly said that his country was going after “all who one way or another practice and preach terrorist ideology.” |
| Jordan is expected to host a meeting of military and intelligence experts to thrash out a complete list. Whether it will include hard-line Islamist groups supported by powerful Persian Gulf countries is certain to be a point of great contention. | Jordan is expected to host a meeting of military and intelligence experts to thrash out a complete list. Whether it will include hard-line Islamist groups supported by powerful Persian Gulf countries is certain to be a point of great contention. |
| Second, how would a cease-fire monitoring mission work? | Second, how would a cease-fire monitoring mission work? |
| There is little appetite for a traditional observer mission of blue berets under United Nations command, diplomats here said. That was tried in 2012 — and quickly abandoned. One possibility is that regional countries, each with a stake in Syria’s future, will sign up to monitor a cease-fire. Another possibility is that the parties on the ground will monitor a truce themselves, and report violations to a United Nations-endorsed body. | There is little appetite for a traditional observer mission of blue berets under United Nations command, diplomats here said. That was tried in 2012 — and quickly abandoned. One possibility is that regional countries, each with a stake in Syria’s future, will sign up to monitor a cease-fire. Another possibility is that the parties on the ground will monitor a truce themselves, and report violations to a United Nations-endorsed body. |
| The Vienna declaration acknowledged its limitations. Terrorist groups will remain fair game and the “cease-fire monitoring mission,” whatever shape it takes, will operate only “in those parts of the country where monitors would not come under threat of attacks from terrorists.” | The Vienna declaration acknowledged its limitations. Terrorist groups will remain fair game and the “cease-fire monitoring mission,” whatever shape it takes, will operate only “in those parts of the country where monitors would not come under threat of attacks from terrorists.” |
| And what about the question that everyone has agreed to kick down the road: The future of the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad? Iran, his principal backer on the battlefield, insists that he must be allowed to run in future elections, which are envisioned, optimistically, for 2017. Western powers insist that Mr. Assad has no place in his country’s long-term future, though they no longer insist that he must exit at the beginning of a political transition. | And what about the question that everyone has agreed to kick down the road: The future of the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad? Iran, his principal backer on the battlefield, insists that he must be allowed to run in future elections, which are envisioned, optimistically, for 2017. Western powers insist that Mr. Assad has no place in his country’s long-term future, though they no longer insist that he must exit at the beginning of a political transition. |
| “There cannot be long-term peace with Assad, but on the other hand there cannot be a peace process that stipulates that Assad must go,” Jean-Marie Guehenno, the president of the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, said. “How you square that circle has been the issue from the beginning and still is.” | “There cannot be long-term peace with Assad, but on the other hand there cannot be a peace process that stipulates that Assad must go,” Jean-Marie Guehenno, the president of the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, said. “How you square that circle has been the issue from the beginning and still is.” |
| For now, both the United States and Russia have agreed to set the question aside, but they can only set it aside for so long. The airstrikes directed at the Islamic State could strengthen Mr. Assad’s position militarily and, in turn, harden his stance at the negotiating table — and that, diplomats and analysts warn, would result in the worst sort of blowback. | For now, both the United States and Russia have agreed to set the question aside, but they can only set it aside for so long. The airstrikes directed at the Islamic State could strengthen Mr. Assad’s position militarily and, in turn, harden his stance at the negotiating table — and that, diplomats and analysts warn, would result in the worst sort of blowback. |
| “Any perception that we are cutting a deal with Assad at the expense of the vast majority of Syrians, and certainly its Sunni majority, would be a strategic victory for Islamic State,” Mr. Guehenno said. | “Any perception that we are cutting a deal with Assad at the expense of the vast majority of Syrians, and certainly its Sunni majority, would be a strategic victory for Islamic State,” Mr. Guehenno said. |
| As world leaders bicker, the misery of the Syrian people becomes more acute. The head of the United Nations relief efforts, Stephen O’Brien, offered one measure of the suffering, telling the Security Council on Monday that barely two-thirds of Syrian children have been immunized against preventable childhood diseases in 2015; five years ago, nearly all children in Syria had been immunized. All told, 13.5 million Syrians are in need of humanitarian aid, and there is not nearly enough funding to pay for it. | As world leaders bicker, the misery of the Syrian people becomes more acute. The head of the United Nations relief efforts, Stephen O’Brien, offered one measure of the suffering, telling the Security Council on Monday that barely two-thirds of Syrian children have been immunized against preventable childhood diseases in 2015; five years ago, nearly all children in Syria had been immunized. All told, 13.5 million Syrians are in need of humanitarian aid, and there is not nearly enough funding to pay for it. |
| Their suffering is bound to get worse. The fighting is likely to intensify, diplomats said, as the parties to any potential cease-fire try to strengthen their bargaining position. “It’s part of the metabolism of a potential cease-fire,” Mr. de Mistura said. | Their suffering is bound to get worse. The fighting is likely to intensify, diplomats said, as the parties to any potential cease-fire try to strengthen their bargaining position. “It’s part of the metabolism of a potential cease-fire,” Mr. de Mistura said. |