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| U.S. Investigators Struggle to Track Homegrown ISIS Suspects | U.S. Investigators Struggle to Track Homegrown ISIS Suspects |
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| WASHINGTON — At least three dozen people in the United States suspected of ties to the Islamic State were under heavy electronic or physical surveillance even before the Paris attacks, senior American officials say. But unlike the attackers in France, the officials say, the majority of those under investigation here never traveled to Syria to fight alongside the Islamic State or receive training from it. | WASHINGTON — At least three dozen people in the United States suspected of ties to the Islamic State were under heavy electronic or physical surveillance even before the Paris attacks, senior American officials say. But unlike the attackers in France, the officials say, the majority of those under investigation here never traveled to Syria to fight alongside the Islamic State or receive training from it. |
| In many ways, the officials say, that makes the American investigations even harder. Those under investigation typically have little terrorism expertise or support from a cell, which makes thwarting an Islamic State-inspired attack in the United States less like stopping a traditional terrorist plot and more like trying to prevent a school shooting. | In many ways, the officials say, that makes the American investigations even harder. Those under investigation typically have little terrorism expertise or support from a cell, which makes thwarting an Islamic State-inspired attack in the United States less like stopping a traditional terrorist plot and more like trying to prevent a school shooting. |
| Stopping a potential attack has taken on new urgency after Paris, which served as a reminder that even people who have already caught the eye of intelligence services can spring attacks on short notice. Although at this point American officials say there is no credible threat from the Islamic State inside the United States, they worry that Paris could provide the spark to inspire angry, troubled people to finally do something violent. | Stopping a potential attack has taken on new urgency after Paris, which served as a reminder that even people who have already caught the eye of intelligence services can spring attacks on short notice. Although at this point American officials say there is no credible threat from the Islamic State inside the United States, they worry that Paris could provide the spark to inspire angry, troubled people to finally do something violent. |
| This year, American counterterrorism officials began focusing their resources on these Americans — known as homegrown violent extremists — after the Islamic State altered its tactics. After months of trying to persuade Americans to travel to join it in Syria and Iraq, the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, began using social media to urge its sympathizers in the United States to stay put and plot violence here. | This year, American counterterrorism officials began focusing their resources on these Americans — known as homegrown violent extremists — after the Islamic State altered its tactics. After months of trying to persuade Americans to travel to join it in Syria and Iraq, the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, began using social media to urge its sympathizers in the United States to stay put and plot violence here. |
| “They’re targeting the school-shooter types, the mentally ill, people with dysfunctional families and those struggling to cope with different issues,” said one senior law enforcement official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not allowed to speak to reporters. “We have been pretty successful in disrupting these cases because they are not very sophisticated or smart.” | “They’re targeting the school-shooter types, the mentally ill, people with dysfunctional families and those struggling to cope with different issues,” said one senior law enforcement official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not allowed to speak to reporters. “We have been pretty successful in disrupting these cases because they are not very sophisticated or smart.” |
| Despite the Islamic State’s urging of its followers to stay here, senior counterterrorism officials have so far identified roughly four dozen Americans who have evaded the authorities and traveled to Syria to join the Islamic State since the conflict began there in 2011, about twice the number that officials have said previously. Some of them are known to have died on the battlefield. A small number have returned to the United States but have lost interest in the cause, the officials say. | Despite the Islamic State’s urging of its followers to stay here, senior counterterrorism officials have so far identified roughly four dozen Americans who have evaded the authorities and traveled to Syria to join the Islamic State since the conflict began there in 2011, about twice the number that officials have said previously. Some of them are known to have died on the battlefield. A small number have returned to the United States but have lost interest in the cause, the officials say. |
| In many instances, the F.B.I. and other federal authorities have learned that the Americans made it to the Middle East only after they posted about their travels on social media sites like Facebook and Twitter. | In many instances, the F.B.I. and other federal authorities have learned that the Americans made it to the Middle East only after they posted about their travels on social media sites like Facebook and Twitter. |
| For F.B.I. agents, watching an Islamic State suspect in the United States is a study in anxiety. Being an Islamic State sympathizer is not against the law. Neither is expressing hatred for the United States on Twitter. Buying guns is also legal, and investigators have watched nervously as terrorism suspects passed background checks and purchased guns more than 2,000 times in the past decade, according to government data. | For F.B.I. agents, watching an Islamic State suspect in the United States is a study in anxiety. Being an Islamic State sympathizer is not against the law. Neither is expressing hatred for the United States on Twitter. Buying guns is also legal, and investigators have watched nervously as terrorism suspects passed background checks and purchased guns more than 2,000 times in the past decade, according to government data. |
| The threat from the Islamic State has put a unique demand on American counterterrorism officials. Nobody expects the F.B.I. to discover the angry, violence-obsessed young man and arrest him before he shoots his classmates. But the same person, inspired by the Islamic State, is a priority. Missing him is considered an intelligence failure. | The threat from the Islamic State has put a unique demand on American counterterrorism officials. Nobody expects the F.B.I. to discover the angry, violence-obsessed young man and arrest him before he shoots his classmates. But the same person, inspired by the Islamic State, is a priority. Missing him is considered an intelligence failure. |
| So agents watch and wait, looking for some sign that yesterday’s angry man with a gun is about to become today’s terrorist. That is why investigators have moved to arrest people early, well before a plot is fully realized. And it is why agents so often use undercover stings: They generate controversy but give the F.B.I. a measure of control. | So agents watch and wait, looking for some sign that yesterday’s angry man with a gun is about to become today’s terrorist. That is why investigators have moved to arrest people early, well before a plot is fully realized. And it is why agents so often use undercover stings: They generate controversy but give the F.B.I. a measure of control. |
| The F.B.I. does not have explicit requirements to determine who should be monitored because of suspected ties to the Islamic State. But the bureau — whose agents constantly monitor chat rooms, the Islamic State’s Twitter accounts and other online traffic — concentrates on people who have tried to directly contact the Islamic State through social media or have said they want to travel to Syria to join the group. The bureau also relies on information it receives from relatives, friends, teachers, clergy members or others in the community about people suspected of ties to the Islamic State. | The F.B.I. does not have explicit requirements to determine who should be monitored because of suspected ties to the Islamic State. But the bureau — whose agents constantly monitor chat rooms, the Islamic State’s Twitter accounts and other online traffic — concentrates on people who have tried to directly contact the Islamic State through social media or have said they want to travel to Syria to join the group. The bureau also relies on information it receives from relatives, friends, teachers, clergy members or others in the community about people suspected of ties to the Islamic State. |
| Attacks can come suddenly. In May, a young man in Syria put an ominous warning on Twitter: “The knives have been sharpened, soon we will come to your streets with death and slaughter!” Hours later, half a world away, two Islamic State supporters opened fire outside a community center in the Dallas suburb of Garland, Tex. Both were killed by officers. After the attack, the Islamic State declared them “soldiers of the caliphate.” It was the first time that the terrorist group had claimed credit for an operation carried out on American soil. | Attacks can come suddenly. In May, a young man in Syria put an ominous warning on Twitter: “The knives have been sharpened, soon we will come to your streets with death and slaughter!” Hours later, half a world away, two Islamic State supporters opened fire outside a community center in the Dallas suburb of Garland, Tex. Both were killed by officers. After the attack, the Islamic State declared them “soldiers of the caliphate.” It was the first time that the terrorist group had claimed credit for an operation carried out on American soil. |
| As the Islamic State has changed its approach to encourage followers here, the authorities have detected a trend that they believe shows the impact of the group’s new message: There has been a significant drop in the number of Americans trying to travel to Syria and Iraq to join the group. Counterterrorism officials say that since July an average of two Americans a month have tried to travel or successfully traveled to Islamic State territory, compared with nine a month over the previous year. | |
| “There’s some reason to believe ISIL’s social media is urging people to stay home to kill,” the F.B.I. director, James B. Comey, said in an interview in October. He said that the decline could be for many other reasons, including additional law enforcement efforts and the realization by many that living in Islamic State territory is “hell.” | |
| Mr. Comey has said that the bureau has 900 open inquiries related to the Islamic State. While that number might sound high, most of them have not become wide-ranging investigations because they were generated by tips that were not substantiated. According to law enforcement officials, the F.B.I. typically has about 10,000 open counterterrorism inquiries. | Mr. Comey has said that the bureau has 900 open inquiries related to the Islamic State. While that number might sound high, most of them have not become wide-ranging investigations because they were generated by tips that were not substantiated. According to law enforcement officials, the F.B.I. typically has about 10,000 open counterterrorism inquiries. |
| It is not possible for the F.B.I. to conduct round-the-clock surveillance on all its Islamic State suspects since one day of surveillance on a single target might involve 30 agents and analysts or more. If the F.B.I. has to expand that surveillance to even a few dozen targets, officials say, the staffing requirements become overwhelming. This spring, the number of people under investigation for ties to the Islamic State was so high that surveillance agents had to be taken away from criminal investigations. | It is not possible for the F.B.I. to conduct round-the-clock surveillance on all its Islamic State suspects since one day of surveillance on a single target might involve 30 agents and analysts or more. If the F.B.I. has to expand that surveillance to even a few dozen targets, officials say, the staffing requirements become overwhelming. This spring, the number of people under investigation for ties to the Islamic State was so high that surveillance agents had to be taken away from criminal investigations. |
| Michael B. Steinbach, the F.B.I.’s assistant director for counterterrorism, said that this summer “the pace of investigations rapidly increased.’’ | Michael B. Steinbach, the F.B.I.’s assistant director for counterterrorism, said that this summer “the pace of investigations rapidly increased.’’ |
| The attacks in Paris on Friday, which killed 129 people, were carried out by a team of at least nine terrorists, including five who investigators believe traveled to join the Islamic State. That type of plot was a major concern to American counterterrorism officials when the Islamic State rose to power in 2014 and dozens of the group’s American supporters headed to Syria and Iraq. | The attacks in Paris on Friday, which killed 129 people, were carried out by a team of at least nine terrorists, including five who investigators believe traveled to join the Islamic State. That type of plot was a major concern to American counterterrorism officials when the Islamic State rose to power in 2014 and dozens of the group’s American supporters headed to Syria and Iraq. |
| To more closely monitor them, the F.B.I. and the Department of Homeland Security used sophisticated algorithms to track Americans’ travel to the Middle East, and the State Department put pressure on Turkey to close its porous border with Syria. | To more closely monitor them, the F.B.I. and the Department of Homeland Security used sophisticated algorithms to track Americans’ travel to the Middle East, and the State Department put pressure on Turkey to close its porous border with Syria. |
| Officials say those methods deterred some. | Officials say those methods deterred some. |