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| After Paris Attacks, Waiting for Shopping and Culture to Come Back to Life | After Paris Attacks, Waiting for Shopping and Culture to Come Back to Life |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| PARIS — The Christmas market and festive lights had just gone up on the Avenue des Champs-Élysées, with merchants hoping for a strong retail season, when the weekend’s brutal terrorist attacks cast a pall on Paris. | PARIS — The Christmas market and festive lights had just gone up on the Avenue des Champs-Élysées, with merchants hoping for a strong retail season, when the weekend’s brutal terrorist attacks cast a pall on Paris. |
| Though holiday shopping might seem a minor consideration compared with the loss of life, activity in the coming days on the French capital’s most famous shopping street could be an indicator of whether the attacks have dealt a blow to the city’s commerce and the country’s effort to achieve a sustained economic recovery. | Though holiday shopping might seem a minor consideration compared with the loss of life, activity in the coming days on the French capital’s most famous shopping street could be an indicator of whether the attacks have dealt a blow to the city’s commerce and the country’s effort to achieve a sustained economic recovery. |
| And as European leaders, along with President Obama, have identified the threat from the Islamic State group as broader than a French risk, there is concern of a wider economic impact if fear keeps people from wanting to travel or to gather in holiday crowds. And the attacks have come at an already bad time for the eurozone economy, which has been plagued for years by slow growth and high unemployment. | |
| How lasting the effect will be on the Paris economy or beyond, once the initial shock has faded, is difficult to predict. Typically, economists say, the commercial impact of terrorist attacks tends to be small and temporary. That was the case after attacks in Madrid in 2004, in London in 2005 and even the 9/11 attacks in New York, Jörg Krämer, chief economist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, said in a note to clients on Monday. | |
| “As for France, it is certainly too early for a final analysis,” Mr. Krämer wrote. “It is likely, however, that the terrorists will also fail to bring economic life to its knees.” | |
| And yet, because this is also the start of what is traditionally a significant holiday and winter tourist season for Paris and other parts of France and Europe, much will depend not only on local psychology but also on the willingness of foreign visitors to set worries aside. | |
| At least in the short term, the terrorism in Paris has chilled consumer spending in the French capital, essentially shutting down much of the city’s retail business for most of the weekend. The Eiffel Tower has been closed “until further notice,’’ according to its website. Disneyland Paris remained closed and was not set to reopen until Wednesday. Both the Louvre and the Musée d’Orsay reopened to the public on Monday after being closed for two days because of security measures. | |
| But shoppers were fewer than usual for this time of year on Champs-Élysées, on Monday, a gray and windy day here. The Abercrombie & Fitch store usually has a line outside, but on Monday there was just a guard, shooing in the occasional customer. | |
| Nearby, the dozens of stalls of the Christmas market remained closed by official order of the authorities, leaving the small merchants unable to sell their spiced wine, beer and sausages, as well as wares like clothes, ornaments and other knicknacks. | |
| “We opened on Friday, but now they say we’ll have to close through Wednesday,” said a French woman named Mauricette, as she directed workers repairing her stall. “If people don’t come, if the tourists are too scared, there will be big economic repercussions for everyone,” she said, declining to give her last name. | |
| Several concerts due to take place in Paris were canceled in the wake of terrorists’ storming the Bataclan concert hall and slaughtering 89 people who were listening to a rock band. Performances by the bands Marilyn Manson and Papa Roach scheduled for Monday night were called off, and the musician Prince suspended his planned European tour and a Paris concert in December. Producers have also temporarily halted performances of a French comedy musical, “Résiste.” | Several concerts due to take place in Paris were canceled in the wake of terrorists’ storming the Bataclan concert hall and slaughtering 89 people who were listening to a rock band. Performances by the bands Marilyn Manson and Papa Roach scheduled for Monday night were called off, and the musician Prince suspended his planned European tour and a Paris concert in December. Producers have also temporarily halted performances of a French comedy musical, “Résiste.” |
| On Monday, the French culture minister, Fleur Pellerin, announced plans for a special government fund to help theaters cope with financial losses stemming from the impact of the terrorist attacks and the costs of increased security. | On Monday, the French culture minister, Fleur Pellerin, announced plans for a special government fund to help theaters cope with financial losses stemming from the impact of the terrorist attacks and the costs of increased security. |
| “Everything will be done so that music remains alive in our country,” Ms. Pellerin said. “Culture is our greatest shield, and our artists are our best weapon.” | “Everything will be done so that music remains alive in our country,” Ms. Pellerin said. “Culture is our greatest shield, and our artists are our best weapon.” |
| Although European stock markets opened lower on Monday, led down by the main French index, the CAC 40 in Paris, by late afternoon, the European indexes were all flat or in slightly positive territory. | Although European stock markets opened lower on Monday, led down by the main French index, the CAC 40 in Paris, by late afternoon, the European indexes were all flat or in slightly positive territory. |
| French companies catering to travel and tourism were taking a hit, though. Shares of Air France-KLM were down about 6 percent through the late afternoon, and the French group AccorHotel’s stock was off by more than 5 percent. | |
| On Monday, the Regional Tourism Committee for Paris announced a plan to convene a special conference on Wednesday to assess the potential economic impact with representatives from museums, deluxe hotels, amusement parks and department stores. | On Monday, the Regional Tourism Committee for Paris announced a plan to convene a special conference on Wednesday to assess the potential economic impact with representatives from museums, deluxe hotels, amusement parks and department stores. |
| Tourism represents about 8 percent of the French economy. If fear of additional attacks keeps foreign visitors away and makes households reluctant to spend, those sectors and the tens of thousands of jobs related to them will suffer. | Tourism represents about 8 percent of the French economy. If fear of additional attacks keeps foreign visitors away and makes households reluctant to spend, those sectors and the tens of thousands of jobs related to them will suffer. |
| On Monday, the European Union’s statistics agency said that the annual rate of inflation in the eurozone in October was 0.1 percent, a sign of a weak economy — even if the number was higher than in September, when consumer prices fell at an annual rate of 0.1 percent. | On Monday, the European Union’s statistics agency said that the annual rate of inflation in the eurozone in October was 0.1 percent, a sign of a weak economy — even if the number was higher than in September, when consumer prices fell at an annual rate of 0.1 percent. |
| In terms of growth, the eurozone economy expanded at a meager annual rate of 1.2 percent during the third quarter, and total economic output is still lower than it was in 2007, before the beginning of the financial crisis. | In terms of growth, the eurozone economy expanded at a meager annual rate of 1.2 percent during the third quarter, and total economic output is still lower than it was in 2007, before the beginning of the financial crisis. |
| Expectations that the European Central Bank would step up its stimulus to the eurozone economy when it meets next month, already high, have been further solidified by the Paris attacks. | Expectations that the European Central Bank would step up its stimulus to the eurozone economy when it meets next month, already high, have been further solidified by the Paris attacks. |
| “It compounds all the problems that we were already facing,” Vitor Constâncio, vice president of the European Central Bank, said on Monday after a speech in Frankfurt. The attacks could have a psychological effect, he said, adding that that would depend on any further consequences. | “It compounds all the problems that we were already facing,” Vitor Constâncio, vice president of the European Central Bank, said on Monday after a speech in Frankfurt. The attacks could have a psychological effect, he said, adding that that would depend on any further consequences. |
| It might be too much to expect François Hollande, the French president, to mimic former President George W. Bush, who after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States famously called on Americans to “go out shopping more.” But Philippe Waechter, research director at Natixis Asset Management, predicted that Parisians, who have been living with the risk of terrorist attacks since at least the 1980s, would prove as resilient as New Yorkers. | |
| And yet, Paris has now been hit by two murderous rampages this year. The first was a series of attacks in January, with the assault on the satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo, which had mocked Islam along with most other religions; the killing of a police officer in a Paris suburb; and an assault on a Jewish kosher supermarket. Vicious and hate-fueled as those assaults were, with attackers killing 17 people, they might nonetheless have left many Parisians feeling that they were not targets. | And yet, Paris has now been hit by two murderous rampages this year. The first was a series of attacks in January, with the assault on the satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo, which had mocked Islam along with most other religions; the killing of a police officer in a Paris suburb; and an assault on a Jewish kosher supermarket. Vicious and hate-fueled as those assaults were, with attackers killing 17 people, they might nonetheless have left many Parisians feeling that they were not targets. |
| This past weekend’s attacks, though, killing at least 129, seemed aimed at making no one feel safe anywhere — at a sporting event, at a rock concert, at a cafe or restaurant. That factor could make the near-term consumer psychology harder to predict — not only in Paris but across Europe. | This past weekend’s attacks, though, killing at least 129, seemed aimed at making no one feel safe anywhere — at a sporting event, at a rock concert, at a cafe or restaurant. That factor could make the near-term consumer psychology harder to predict — not only in Paris but across Europe. |
| One barometer may be the outdoor Christmas markets, a tradition not only in France, but also in Germany and several other European countries. Christmas markets in German cities like Nuremberg and Dresden, which have two of the oldest, attract huge crowds to drink mulled wine or browse among stands selling items like wooden tree ornaments or handmade mittens. | |
| The markets have been threatened by terrorists in the past but still drew crowds, said Werner Hammerschmidt, executive director of the Bundesverband Deutscher Schausteller und Marktkaufleute, a group that represents businesses that sell food and gifts at Christmas markets. | The markets have been threatened by terrorists in the past but still drew crowds, said Werner Hammerschmidt, executive director of the Bundesverband Deutscher Schausteller und Marktkaufleute, a group that represents businesses that sell food and gifts at Christmas markets. |
| “There have been threats for years,” Mr. Hammerschmidt said. “People have shown they won’t let their lives be influenced by terrorists. I suspect that will be the case this time.” | “There have been threats for years,” Mr. Hammerschmidt said. “People have shown they won’t let their lives be influenced by terrorists. I suspect that will be the case this time.” |
| At least one French celebrity, the singer Shy’m, insisted this week that the show must go on. She has concerts scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday nights in Paris, at the AccorHotels Arena, an indoor sports venue and concert hall. The venue is in the 12th arrondissement, not far from where at least five of Friday night’s attacks took place and where the Charlie Hebdo massacre occurred in January. | |
| “After much reflection, doubts and fears, I decided to go on stage,” she wrote in a post on her Facebook page on Sunday evening. “What has happened to France and humanity is unspeakable but it is out of the question to hole up and stay silent.” | |
| “This,” she added, “is the resistance.” | “This,” she added, “is the resistance.” |