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| After Paris Attacks, Waiting for the Champs-Élysées to Come Back to Life | After Paris Attacks, Waiting for the Champs-Élysées to Come Back to Life |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| PARIS — The Christmas market and festive lights had just gone up on the Avenue des Champs-Élysées with merchants hoping for a strong retail season, when the weekend’s brutal terrorist attacks cast a pall on the city. | PARIS — The Christmas market and festive lights had just gone up on the Avenue des Champs-Élysées with merchants hoping for a strong retail season, when the weekend’s brutal terrorist attacks cast a pall on the city. |
| Though holiday shopping might seem a minor consideration compared with the loss of life, activity in the coming days on the French capital’s most famous shopping street could be an indicator of whether the attacks have dealt a blow to the city’s commerce and the country’s effort to achieve a sustained economic recovery. | Though holiday shopping might seem a minor consideration compared with the loss of life, activity in the coming days on the French capital’s most famous shopping street could be an indicator of whether the attacks have dealt a blow to the city’s commerce and the country’s effort to achieve a sustained economic recovery. |
| The attacks have chilled consumer spending in the capital, essentially shutting down much of the city’s retail business for most of the weekend. The Eiffel Tower has been closed “until further notice,’’ according to its website. Disneyland Paris remained closed, not set to reopen until Wednesday. | The attacks have chilled consumer spending in the capital, essentially shutting down much of the city’s retail business for most of the weekend. The Eiffel Tower has been closed “until further notice,’’ according to its website. Disneyland Paris remained closed, not set to reopen until Wednesday. |
| European stock markets opened lower on Monday, led down by the main French index, the CAC 40 in Paris, which was off a bit more than 1 percent at the open. But by late morning, the European indexes were all flat or in slightly positive territory. | |
| French companies catering to travel and tourism were taking a harder hit, though. Shares of Air France-KLM were down more than 5 percent through late morning, and the French hotel group Accor’s stock was also off by about 5 percent. | French companies catering to travel and tourism were taking a harder hit, though. Shares of Air France-KLM were down more than 5 percent through late morning, and the French hotel group Accor’s stock was also off by about 5 percent. |
| How lasting the effect will be on the Paris economy, once the initial shock has faded, is difficult to predict. Terrorist attacks in other major cities have had only fleeting effects on local economies. If the French authorities can head off further attacks and restore a sense of confidence before the holiday shopping season is over, there may be no reason to think that Paris will be different. | How lasting the effect will be on the Paris economy, once the initial shock has faded, is difficult to predict. Terrorist attacks in other major cities have had only fleeting effects on local economies. If the French authorities can head off further attacks and restore a sense of confidence before the holiday shopping season is over, there may be no reason to think that Paris will be different. |
| “When we look at the figures after the Sept. 11 attacks in the U.S., or the attacks in Madrid or London, we see there is no major impact on economic activity,” said Philippe Waechter, research director at Natixis Asset Management. “So probably we’ll see the same in France.” | “When we look at the figures after the Sept. 11 attacks in the U.S., or the attacks in Madrid or London, we see there is no major impact on economic activity,” said Philippe Waechter, research director at Natixis Asset Management. “So probably we’ll see the same in France.” |
| “Maybe in the first few weeks, when you go to shopping malls and things like that, maybe we’ll find that people are a little shy,” he said. “But after that, people will go through a sort of normalization.” | “Maybe in the first few weeks, when you go to shopping malls and things like that, maybe we’ll find that people are a little shy,” he said. “But after that, people will go through a sort of normalization.” |
| And yet, because this is also the start of what is traditionally a significant holiday and winter tourist season for Paris and other parts of France, much will depend not only on local psychology but also on the willingness of foreign visitors to set worries aside. | And yet, because this is also the start of what is traditionally a significant holiday and winter tourist season for Paris and other parts of France, much will depend not only on local psychology but also on the willingness of foreign visitors to set worries aside. |
| Tourism represents about 8 percent of the French economy. If fear of additional attacks keeps foreign visitors away and makes households reluctant to spend, those sectors and the tens of thousands of jobs related to them will suffer the consequences. | Tourism represents about 8 percent of the French economy. If fear of additional attacks keeps foreign visitors away and makes households reluctant to spend, those sectors and the tens of thousands of jobs related to them will suffer the consequences. |
| The economic stakes are high for all of Europe, many parts of which had lately shown new signs of growth and a whittling away of the region’s high unemployment. The influx of more than a million migrants and refugees this year from Syria and other war-torn countries was creating political strains even before reports that at least one of the attackers in Paris had slipped into Europe through Greece, as part of that mass migration. | The economic stakes are high for all of Europe, many parts of which had lately shown new signs of growth and a whittling away of the region’s high unemployment. The influx of more than a million migrants and refugees this year from Syria and other war-torn countries was creating political strains even before reports that at least one of the attackers in Paris had slipped into Europe through Greece, as part of that mass migration. |
| On Friday, only hours before the attacks, new data from the European Union showed that the French economy in the third quarter had broken out of its stagnation, helping to keep alive the eurozone’s modest recovery. France’s economy accelerated sharply from the second quarter, growing at an annualized 1.4 percent pace — even faster than Germany’s 1.3 percent. | On Friday, only hours before the attacks, new data from the European Union showed that the French economy in the third quarter had broken out of its stagnation, helping to keep alive the eurozone’s modest recovery. France’s economy accelerated sharply from the second quarter, growing at an annualized 1.4 percent pace — even faster than Germany’s 1.3 percent. |
| Paris is particularly crucial to the French economy. The area that includes the city, a region known as the Île-de-France, generates nearly one-third of the country’s gross domestic product of 2.14 trillion euros, or $2.3 trillion. | Paris is particularly crucial to the French economy. The area that includes the city, a region known as the Île-de-France, generates nearly one-third of the country’s gross domestic product of 2.14 trillion euros, or $2.3 trillion. |
| Mr. Waechter, the analyst, said that if there were an extended period of weaker consumer spending in the wake of the attacks, it could have a broader impact by prompting companies to delay new investments, which could create a drag on the economic recovery in 2016. | Mr. Waechter, the analyst, said that if there were an extended period of weaker consumer spending in the wake of the attacks, it could have a broader impact by prompting companies to delay new investments, which could create a drag on the economic recovery in 2016. |
| It might be too much to expect François Hollande, the French president, to mimic former President George W. Bush, who after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States famously called on Americans to “go out shopping more.” But Mr. Waechter predicted that Parisians, who have been living with the risk of terrorist attacks since at least the 1980s, would prove as resilient as New Yorkers. | It might be too much to expect François Hollande, the French president, to mimic former President George W. Bush, who after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States famously called on Americans to “go out shopping more.” But Mr. Waechter predicted that Parisians, who have been living with the risk of terrorist attacks since at least the 1980s, would prove as resilient as New Yorkers. |
| Paris has now been hit by two murderous rampages this year. The first series of attacks was in January, with the assault on the satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo, which had mocked Islam along with most other religions; the killing of a police officer in a Paris suburb, and an assault on a Jewish kosher supermarket. Vicious and hate-fueled as those attacks were, killing 17 people, they might nonetheless have left many Parisians feeling that they were not targets themselves. | Paris has now been hit by two murderous rampages this year. The first series of attacks was in January, with the assault on the satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo, which had mocked Islam along with most other religions; the killing of a police officer in a Paris suburb, and an assault on a Jewish kosher supermarket. Vicious and hate-fueled as those attacks were, killing 17 people, they might nonetheless have left many Parisians feeling that they were not targets themselves. |
| This past weekend’s attacks, though, killing at least 129, seemed aimed at making no one feel safe anywhere — at a sporting event, at a rock concert, at a cafe or restaurant. That factor could make the near-term consumer psychology harder to predict. | This past weekend’s attacks, though, killing at least 129, seemed aimed at making no one feel safe anywhere — at a sporting event, at a rock concert, at a cafe or restaurant. That factor could make the near-term consumer psychology harder to predict. |
| “The communications of the government will be very important,” Mr. Waechter said. | “The communications of the government will be very important,” Mr. Waechter said. |
| “But I’m not pessimistic,” he added. “Maybe for one month the economy will be a little weaker, but not more.” | “But I’m not pessimistic,” he added. “Maybe for one month the economy will be a little weaker, but not more.” |