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| European Union Predicts Economic Gains From Influx of Migrants | |
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| BRUSSELS — European Union officials on Thursday put a positive economic spin on the bloc’s refugee crisis. | BRUSSELS — European Union officials on Thursday put a positive economic spin on the bloc’s refugee crisis. |
| In a forecast, officials predicted that the three million migrants expected over the next three years would provide at least a small lift — a net gain of perhaps a quarter of 1 percent to the European economy by 2017. | In a forecast, officials predicted that the three million migrants expected over the next three years would provide at least a small lift — a net gain of perhaps a quarter of 1 percent to the European economy by 2017. |
| With that prediction, the European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, used one of its periodic economic forecasts to wade into one of the most divisive issues Europe has faced in decades: migration. | With that prediction, the European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, used one of its periodic economic forecasts to wade into one of the most divisive issues Europe has faced in decades: migration. |
| The arrival this year of large numbers of people from Syria and other war-torn countries has driven a wedge between countries like Germany that have sought a more accommodating stance and those like Hungary, which want far tighter border controls. | The arrival this year of large numbers of people from Syria and other war-torn countries has driven a wedge between countries like Germany that have sought a more accommodating stance and those like Hungary, which want far tighter border controls. |
| The commission, in its autumn economic forecast, said “the arrival of large numbers of asylum seekers” would require increases in public spending to manage the influx — spending that would provide a stimulus to the European economy. | The commission, in its autumn economic forecast, said “the arrival of large numbers of asylum seekers” would require increases in public spending to manage the influx — spending that would provide a stimulus to the European economy. |
| There would also be an additional positive impact from the increase in workers, “provided the right policies are in place to facilitate access to the labor market,” the commission said in a news release. | There would also be an additional positive impact from the increase in workers, “provided the right policies are in place to facilitate access to the labor market,” the commission said in a news release. |
| Some analysts questioned whether the European Commission was being too optimistic in its forecast — whether because too few of the newcomers will have the right job skills or be young enough to make long-term contributions to the economy, or because too few countries are ready to absorb the migrants. | Some analysts questioned whether the European Commission was being too optimistic in its forecast — whether because too few of the newcomers will have the right job skills or be young enough to make long-term contributions to the economy, or because too few countries are ready to absorb the migrants. |
| “Member states have very different philosophies about how soon migrants can actually be integrated into the labor market,” said Stephen Booth, the co-director of Open Europe, a research group in London. “Germany has been willing to allow those seeking asylum to take jobs more quickly than, say, countries like France.’’ | “Member states have very different philosophies about how soon migrants can actually be integrated into the labor market,” said Stephen Booth, the co-director of Open Europe, a research group in London. “Germany has been willing to allow those seeking asylum to take jobs more quickly than, say, countries like France.’’ |
| The commission’s report acknowledged that the European recovery has been slow. And it warned against expectations of a rapid turnaround because of challenges that include the slowdown in China and regional tensions created by a standoff with Russia over Ukraine. | The commission’s report acknowledged that the European recovery has been slow. And it warned against expectations of a rapid turnaround because of challenges that include the slowdown in China and regional tensions created by a standoff with Russia over Ukraine. |
| Still, the commission predicted that the economy of the 19-country eurozone would grow 1.6 percent for this year as a whole, followed by 1.8 percent in 2016 and 1.9 percent in 2017, aided in part by the impact of the migrant influx. | Still, the commission predicted that the economy of the 19-country eurozone would grow 1.6 percent for this year as a whole, followed by 1.8 percent in 2016 and 1.9 percent in 2017, aided in part by the impact of the migrant influx. |
| The forecast predicted even slightly better growth in all three years for the broader 28-member European Union, which includes countries that do not use the euro, like Britain and Hungary. Those two nations are among those that have resisted the commission’s urging that all European Union members share the burden of absorbing the migrants to relieve pressure on front-line states like Italy and Greece, where many of the refugees enter Europe. | The forecast predicted even slightly better growth in all three years for the broader 28-member European Union, which includes countries that do not use the euro, like Britain and Hungary. Those two nations are among those that have resisted the commission’s urging that all European Union members share the burden of absorbing the migrants to relieve pressure on front-line states like Italy and Greece, where many of the refugees enter Europe. |
| The projections in Thursday’s report support a statement made in September by the commission’s president, Jean-Claude Juncker, that migration could be an antidote to looming labor woes in Europe, where an aging population threatens economic growth. Migration should be a “well-managed resource” rather than a problem, Mr. Juncker said in his State of the Union address to the European Parliament. | The projections in Thursday’s report support a statement made in September by the commission’s president, Jean-Claude Juncker, that migration could be an antidote to looming labor woes in Europe, where an aging population threatens economic growth. Migration should be a “well-managed resource” rather than a problem, Mr. Juncker said in his State of the Union address to the European Parliament. |
| Thursday’s forecast also acknowledged the benefits, at least temporarily, of low oil prices and of the European Central Bank’s bond-buying stimulus program. | Thursday’s forecast also acknowledged the benefits, at least temporarily, of low oil prices and of the European Central Bank’s bond-buying stimulus program. |
| Valdis Dombrovskis, the European Commission’s vice president for the euro currency and social issues, said on Thursday in a statement accompanying the report that European governments needed to take “advantage of these temporary tailwinds” to carry out overhauls and help stabilize national finances. | Valdis Dombrovskis, the European Commission’s vice president for the euro currency and social issues, said on Thursday in a statement accompanying the report that European governments needed to take “advantage of these temporary tailwinds” to carry out overhauls and help stabilize national finances. |
| “This is important,” he said, “particularly against the backdrop of a slowing global economy, continuing tensions in our neighborhood and the need to manage the refugee crisis decisively and collectively.” | “This is important,” he said, “particularly against the backdrop of a slowing global economy, continuing tensions in our neighborhood and the need to manage the refugee crisis decisively and collectively.” |
| Pierre Moscovici, the commissioner for economic and financial affairs, told a news conference shortly after the numbers were made public that migration would have only a “weak” impact on growth, but one that would be “positive for the E.U. as a whole.” | Pierre Moscovici, the commissioner for economic and financial affairs, told a news conference shortly after the numbers were made public that migration would have only a “weak” impact on growth, but one that would be “positive for the E.U. as a whole.” |
| The forecasts still needed to be checked over the coming months, Mr. Moscovici said. But the initial estimate “challenges some of our misconceptions” about migration, he said, apparently referring to the idea that asylum seekers would add an economic burden. | The forecasts still needed to be checked over the coming months, Mr. Moscovici said. But the initial estimate “challenges some of our misconceptions” about migration, he said, apparently referring to the idea that asylum seekers would add an economic burden. |
| The commission expects asylum seekers this year to add about one million people to the European Union’s population, which stood at 508.2 million in January. An additional 1.5 million will enter in 2016, and then a half-million more in 2017, the commission predicted. The total would increase in the European Union’s population by 0.4 percent “at most,” assuming that some asylum applications are rejected, the commission said. | The commission expects asylum seekers this year to add about one million people to the European Union’s population, which stood at 508.2 million in January. An additional 1.5 million will enter in 2016, and then a half-million more in 2017, the commission predicted. The total would increase in the European Union’s population by 0.4 percent “at most,” assuming that some asylum applications are rejected, the commission said. |
| Germany has been one of the countries most welcoming to asylum seekers, and has been attempting to help migrants find jobs. The European Commission’s report presented two simulations of the employment impact for Germany. One scenario assumed that the new arrivals would have skills comparable to the current German population, which the report said would expand Germany’s economy about 0.2 percent this year, and 0.4 percent next year. | Germany has been one of the countries most welcoming to asylum seekers, and has been attempting to help migrants find jobs. The European Commission’s report presented two simulations of the employment impact for Germany. One scenario assumed that the new arrivals would have skills comparable to the current German population, which the report said would expand Germany’s economy about 0.2 percent this year, and 0.4 percent next year. |
| In the other simulation, in which the new arrivals consisted only of low-skilled workers, the commission said the impact on German growth would be somewhat less. | In the other simulation, in which the new arrivals consisted only of low-skilled workers, the commission said the impact on German growth would be somewhat less. |
| But growth in the German economy might not be completely positive for Germany’s workers, the commission acknowledged. In either scenario, employment would increase about 1 percent by the end of the decade, but there would also be “stronger downward pressure on real wages,” according to the report. | But growth in the German economy might not be completely positive for Germany’s workers, the commission acknowledged. In either scenario, employment would increase about 1 percent by the end of the decade, but there would also be “stronger downward pressure on real wages,” according to the report. |
| And Carsten Brzeski, the chief economist at ING-DiBa bank in Frankfurt, was dubious about the reliability of even the near-term growth forecast for the euro area. He noted, for example, that new data on Thursday for German industrial orders showed an unexpected decline, mainly on weaker foreign demand. | And Carsten Brzeski, the chief economist at ING-DiBa bank in Frankfurt, was dubious about the reliability of even the near-term growth forecast for the euro area. He noted, for example, that new data on Thursday for German industrial orders showed an unexpected decline, mainly on weaker foreign demand. |
| “It is clear that the next months will be much more difficult for the eurozone economy than described by the commission’s forecasts,” said Mr. Brzeski. “There is a big portion of wishful thinking underlying the forecasts, and the downside risks should not be underestimated.” | “It is clear that the next months will be much more difficult for the eurozone economy than described by the commission’s forecasts,” said Mr. Brzeski. “There is a big portion of wishful thinking underlying the forecasts, and the downside risks should not be underestimated.” |