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European Union, Amid Influx of Migrants, Predicts an Economic Boon European Union, Amid Influx of Migrants, Predicts an Economic Boon
(35 minutes later)
BRUSSELS — European Union officials on Thursday put a positive economic spin on the bloc’s refugee crisis.BRUSSELS — European Union officials on Thursday put a positive economic spin on the bloc’s refugee crisis.
In an economic forecast, officials predicted that the three million migrants expected by 2017 would provide at least a small lift — a net gain of perhaps a quarter of one percent by that year — to Europe’s painfully slow economic recovery. In an economic forecast, officials predicted that the three million migrants expected by 2017 would provide at least a small lift — a net gain of perhaps a quarter of 1 percent by that year — to Europe’s painfully slow economic recovery.
With that prediction, the European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, used one of its periodic economic forecasts to wade into the most divisive issue, migration, Europe has faced in decades.With that prediction, the European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, used one of its periodic economic forecasts to wade into the most divisive issue, migration, Europe has faced in decades.
The arrival this year of large numbers of refugees and migrants from Syria and other war-torn countries has driven a wedge between countries like Germany that have sought a more accommodating stance and those like Hungary, which want far tighter border controls.The arrival this year of large numbers of refugees and migrants from Syria and other war-torn countries has driven a wedge between countries like Germany that have sought a more accommodating stance and those like Hungary, which want far tighter border controls.
The commission, in its autumn economic forecast, said “the arrival of large numbers of asylum seekers” would require increases in public spending to manage the influx, spending that would provide a stimulus to the European economy. The commission, in its autumn economic forecast, said “the arrival of large numbers of asylum seekers” would require increases in public spending to manage the influx — spending that would provide a stimulus to the European economy.
There also would be an additional positive impact from the increase in workers, “provided the right policies are in place to facilitate access to the labor market,” the commission said in a news release. There would also be an additional positive impact from the increase in workers, “provided the right policies are in place to facilitate access to the labor market,” the commission said in a news release.
The report acknowledged that the European recovery has been slow. And it warned against expectations of rapid turnaround because of challenges that include the slowdown in China and regional tensions created by a standoff with Russia over Ukraine. The report acknowledged that the European recovery has been slow. And it warned against expectations of a rapid turnaround because of challenges that include the slowdown in China and regional tensions created by a standoff with Russia over Ukraine.
But the forecast also acknowledged the at least temporary benefits of low oil prices and the European Central Bank’s bond-buying stimulus program. Still, the commission predicted that the economy of the 19-country eurozone would grow 1.6 percent for this year as a whole, followed by 1.8 percent in 2016 and 1.9 percent in 2017, aided in part by the impact of the migrant influx.
The forecast predicted even slightly better growth in all three years for the broader 28-member European Union, which includes countries that do not use the euro, like Britain and Hungary. Those two nations are among those that have resisted the commission’s urging that all European Union members share the burden of absorbing the migrants, to relieve pressure on front-line states like Italy and Greece where many of the refugees enter Europe.
The projections in Thursday’s report support a statement made in September by the commission’s president, Jean-Claude Juncker, that migration could be an antidote to looming labor woes in Europe, where an aging population threatens economic growth. Migration should be a “well-managed resource” rather than a problem, Mr. Juncker said in his State of the Union address to the European Parliament..
Thursday’s forecast also acknowledged the benefits, at least temporarily, of low oil prices and the European Central Bank’s bond-buying stimulus program.
Valdis Dombrovskis, the European Commission’s vice president for the euro currency and social issues, said on Thursday in a statement accompanying the report that European governments needed to take “advantage of these temporary tailwinds” to carry out overhauls and help stabilize national finances.Valdis Dombrovskis, the European Commission’s vice president for the euro currency and social issues, said on Thursday in a statement accompanying the report that European governments needed to take “advantage of these temporary tailwinds” to carry out overhauls and help stabilize national finances.
“This is important,” he said, “particularly against the backdrop of a slowing global economy, continuing tensions in our neighborhood and the need to manage the refugee crisis decisively and collectively.”“This is important,” he said, “particularly against the backdrop of a slowing global economy, continuing tensions in our neighborhood and the need to manage the refugee crisis decisively and collectively.”
Pierre Moscovici, the commissioner for economic and financial affairs, told a news conference shortly after the figures were made public that migration would have only a “weak” impact on growth, but one that would be “positive for the E.U. as a whole.” Pierre Moscovici, the commissioner for economic and financial affairs, told a news conference shortly after the numbers were made public that migration would have only a “weak” impact on growth, but one that would be “positive for the E.U. as a whole.”
The forecasts still needed to be checked over the coming months, Mr. Moscovici said. But the initial estimate “challenges some of our misconceptions” about migration, he said, apparently referring to Europeans who say the asylum seekers will pose as an economic burden. The forecasts still needed to be checked over the coming months, Mr. Moscovici said. But the initial estimate “challenges some of our misconceptions” about migration, he said, apparently referring to the idea that asylum seekers would addan economic burden.