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| Eurozone emerges from deflation as unemployment hits three-year low - live updates | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 10.28am GMT10:28 | |
| It’s almost a year since oil prices began to tumble on the world markets, giving the global economy a deflationary squeeze. | |
| The impact of cheap oil should soon start to drop out of the annual inflation rates, though (as prices will no longer be cheaper than a year ago). And that could send consumer prices indices up again.... | |
| Can't help feeling there will be a bit of a pop in €area inflation once this washes through https://t.co/311GaHfmXo pic.twitter.com/HYTJueilma | |
| 10.14am GMT10:14 | |
| This is the second time this year that the eurozone has shaken off a bout of negative inflation: | |
| #Eurozone out of #deflation: CPI bounced back to 0.0% YoY in Oct. Core CPI a touch better at 1.0% YoY vs 0.9% cons. pic.twitter.com/nIjIEqan5b | |
| Updated at 10.16am GMT | |
| 10.12am GMT10:12 | |
| Eurozone unemployment hits lowest since January 2012 | |
| Europe’s unemployment crisis has eased a little, in another little boost to the region. | |
| Eurostat reports that the overall jobless rate dropped to 10.8% in September, down from 10.9% in August. | |
| That’s lower than economists had expected, and is the lowest level since January 2012. | |
| Sept 2015 euro area unemployment rate 10.8% (Aug 10.9%), EU 9.3% (Aug 9.4%) #Eurostat https://t.co/JN3JQcdm6f pic.twitter.com/HJPqhbbVle | |
| 10.09am GMT10:09 | |
| Although the eurozone’s inflation rate was zero in October, that masks wide differences across the economy. | |
| Today’s eurozone inflation data shows that food prices rose by 1.5% year-on-year in October, while service sector costs were up by 1.3%. | |
| Other goods prices only rose by +0.4%, while energy costs slumped by 8.7%. | |
| So on average prices were unchanged (as the economist with one foot in a bucket of scalding hot water and the other foot in a bucket of ice might put it) | |
| 10.03am GMT10:03 | |
| Eurozone inflation rises to 0.0% | |
| The eurozone has emerged from deflation! | |
| Prices across the single currency region were flat in October, having shrunk by 0.1% the previous month. | |
| That’s broadly in line with forecast, and shows how little inflationary pressure there is in the eurozone (due to weak energy prices). | |
| Euro area inflation up to 0.0% in Oct 2015 (Sept -0.1%): flash estimate from #Eurostat https://t.co/pzXfjPwYOg pic.twitter.com/UPMIIcQFB7 | |
| Core inflation (which strips out volatile elements such as energy and food) across the eurozone rose to 1% - well below the ECB’s 2% target. | |
| Euro Zone CPI Data (Oct A) CPI Y/Y 0.0% versus 0.0% expected, previous -0.1% Core CPI Y/Y +1.0% versus +0.9% expected, previous +0.9% | |
| Updated at 10.04am GMT | |
| 9.38am GMT09:38 | 9.38am GMT09:38 |
| European stock markets are subdued this morning, as investors wait for the latest eurozone inflation and unemployment data in 25 minutes. | European stock markets are subdued this morning, as investors wait for the latest eurozone inflation and unemployment data in 25 minutes. |
| The FTSE 100 has lost 5 points, or just under 0.1%, while the French and German markets are up just 0.15%. | The FTSE 100 has lost 5 points, or just under 0.1%, while the French and German markets are up just 0.15%. |
| But still, fears that we could suffer a grim October have not come to pass, with most indices posting strong gains this month: | But still, fears that we could suffer a grim October have not come to pass, with most indices posting strong gains this month: |
| October has been a merry month for markets. Here are the highlights https://t.co/Z93Ib69vr7 pic.twitter.com/dZGj39pXtK | October has been a merry month for markets. Here are the highlights https://t.co/Z93Ib69vr7 pic.twitter.com/dZGj39pXtK |
| 9.26am GMT09:26 | 9.26am GMT09:26 |
| Looking back at Japan...some economists believe the BoJ may beef up its stimulus package in November, when it meets again. | Looking back at Japan...some economists believe the BoJ may beef up its stimulus package in November, when it meets again. |
| By then, they should have new growth figures showing whether Japan’s economy shrank in the last quarter, or not. | By then, they should have new growth figures showing whether Japan’s economy shrank in the last quarter, or not. |
| Mitsuo Shimizu, deputy general manager of Japan Asia Securities Group, says: | Mitsuo Shimizu, deputy general manager of Japan Asia Securities Group, says: |
| “They could move after the next meeting - expectations for more easing aren’t going away.” | “They could move after the next meeting - expectations for more easing aren’t going away.” |
| But there’s also an argument for waiting until the US central bank’s next meeting in December. If the Fed does hike interest rates, then the yen will weaken against the US dollar without the BoJ needing to do anything.... | But there’s also an argument for waiting until the US central bank’s next meeting in December. If the Fed does hike interest rates, then the yen will weaken against the US dollar without the BoJ needing to do anything.... |
| Bbg's Brian Fowler in Tokyo says BoJ is waiting for December Fed move to make its next move. Fed action would be Japan-positive: strong $USD | Bbg's Brian Fowler in Tokyo says BoJ is waiting for December Fed move to make its next move. Fed action would be Japan-positive: strong $USD |
| 9.10am GMT09:10 | 9.10am GMT09:10 |
| Italy’s unemployment rate has dipped to its lowest point since January 2013 but still remains worryingly high. | Italy’s unemployment rate has dipped to its lowest point since January 2013 but still remains worryingly high. |
| New data shows that the Italian jobless rate fell to 11.8% in September, from 11.9% in August, suggesting prime minister Matteo Renzi’s reform plan may finally be bearing some fruit. | New data shows that the Italian jobless rate fell to 11.8% in September, from 11.9% in August, suggesting prime minister Matteo Renzi’s reform plan may finally be bearing some fruit. |
| It’s better than economists expected. | It’s better than economists expected. |
| *ITALIAN SEPT. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FALLS TO 11.8%; EST. 11.9% | *ITALIAN SEPT. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FALLS TO 11.8%; EST. 11.9% |
| In 50 minutes time we get the overall eurozone unemployment report.... | In 50 minutes time we get the overall eurozone unemployment report.... |
| Updated at 9.10am GMT | Updated at 9.10am GMT |
| 8.47am GMT08:47 | 8.47am GMT08:47 |
| Spain’s recovery has been partly due to a strong tourist season, which helped it overcome the housing crash. | Spain’s recovery has been partly due to a strong tourist season, which helped it overcome the housing crash. |
| The FT’s Ian Mount explains: | The FT’s Ian Mount explains: |
| Record spending by foreign tourists has helped speed Spain’s recovery from a double dip recovery that began after its real estate bubble popped in 2008. | Record spending by foreign tourists has helped speed Spain’s recovery from a double dip recovery that began after its real estate bubble popped in 2008. |
| Tourists injected €53.8bn into the economy over the first nine months of 2015, 6.3 per cent more than in the same period in 2014. | Tourists injected €53.8bn into the economy over the first nine months of 2015, 6.3 per cent more than in the same period in 2014. |
| 8.34am GMT08:34 | 8.34am GMT08:34 |
| Capital Economics fears that today’s GDP report shows Spain’s ‘impressive’ recovery is faltering a little: | Capital Economics fears that today’s GDP report shows Spain’s ‘impressive’ recovery is faltering a little: |
| Morning. Spain Q3 GDP +0.8% q/q after Q2's +1.0%. Suggests impressive recovery may be losing some steam, in line with survey indicators | Morning. Spain Q3 GDP +0.8% q/q after Q2's +1.0%. Suggests impressive recovery may be losing some steam, in line with survey indicators |
| Holger Sandte of Nordea Markets is concerned that Spain’s building and housing sector is still in the mire: | Holger Sandte of Nordea Markets is concerned that Spain’s building and housing sector is still in the mire: |
| #Spain’s #GDP up 0.8% q/q in Q3, almost back at pre-crisis level. But many gaps have not been closed pic.twitter.com/UHnZRizeww | #Spain’s #GDP up 0.8% q/q in Q3, almost back at pre-crisis level. But many gaps have not been closed pic.twitter.com/UHnZRizeww |
| 8.26am GMT08:26 | 8.26am GMT08:26 |
| Spanish GDP up by 0.8% as recovery continues | Spanish GDP up by 0.8% as recovery continues |
| Spain’s economic recovery continues, although at a slightly lower speed. | Spain’s economic recovery continues, although at a slightly lower speed. |
| The Spanish statistics body reports that GDP rose by 0.8% in the last three months, compared to 1% in the second quarter of this year. | The Spanish statistics body reports that GDP rose by 0.8% in the last three months, compared to 1% in the second quarter of this year. |
| On an annual basis, the economy grew by 3.4%, up from 3.1%. | On an annual basis, the economy grew by 3.4%, up from 3.1%. |
| This is the 9th consecutive quarter of growth in Spain, which has been one of the best performing European economics since the debt crisis eased in 2012. | This is the 9th consecutive quarter of growth in Spain, which has been one of the best performing European economics since the debt crisis eased in 2012. |
| Spain is the first eurozone country to report growth figures (we get most of the data in two weeks time). | Spain is the first eurozone country to report growth figures (we get most of the data in two weeks time). |
| Today’s numbers mean it is growing faster than the UK, which reported a GDP increase of 0.5% on Tuesday. It also beats America’s annualised rate of 1.5% (which is <0.4% on a quarter-on-quarter basis). | Today’s numbers mean it is growing faster than the UK, which reported a GDP increase of 0.5% on Tuesday. It also beats America’s annualised rate of 1.5% (which is <0.4% on a quarter-on-quarter basis). |
| Reaction to follow.... | Reaction to follow.... |
| 8.13am GMT08:13 | 8.13am GMT08:13 |
| Kuroda predicts moderate recovery for global economy | Kuroda predicts moderate recovery for global economy |
| Governor Kuroda is also trying to dampen fears over China’s economy, and its impact on Japan. | Governor Kuroda is also trying to dampen fears over China’s economy, and its impact on Japan. |
| He says he agrees with the IMF that the slowdown in China could last longer than expected, which would be bad for Japanese trade: | He says he agrees with the IMF that the slowdown in China could last longer than expected, which would be bad for Japanese trade: |
| Many Japanese companies operate in East Asia so their profits may also be affected. | Many Japanese companies operate in East Asia so their profits may also be affected. |
| But he’s still optimistic that the region’s economies are resilient enough to cope: | But he’s still optimistic that the region’s economies are resilient enough to cope: |
| Our main scenario is for the global economy to recover moderately, driven by the strength in advanced economies.” | Our main scenario is for the global economy to recover moderately, driven by the strength in advanced economies.” |
| 8.05am GMT08:05 | 8.05am GMT08:05 |
| Here’s some instant reaction to BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s comments: | Here’s some instant reaction to BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s comments: |
| Kuroda leaving the easing door open, obviously. | Kuroda leaving the easing door open, obviously. |
| The Bank of Japan lowers projections of growth, inflation https://t.co/yeiHwXl64d pic.twitter.com/uUav5IjbNW | The Bank of Japan lowers projections of growth, inflation https://t.co/yeiHwXl64d pic.twitter.com/uUav5IjbNW |
| BoJ's Kuroda pushes 2% inflation target to H2 16. Sees lower oil prices as main reason. Says overall inflation trend is improving in #Japan. | BoJ's Kuroda pushes 2% inflation target to H2 16. Sees lower oil prices as main reason. Says overall inflation trend is improving in #Japan. |
| BoJ's Kuroda: Don't think confidence in BoJ is falling apart. BoJ's bal sheet expansion smaller than Fed's or PBoC's pic.twitter.com/fiA9RUPi5X | BoJ's Kuroda: Don't think confidence in BoJ is falling apart. BoJ's bal sheet expansion smaller than Fed's or PBoC's pic.twitter.com/fiA9RUPi5X |
| 7.49am GMT07:49 | 7.49am GMT07:49 |
| BoJ's Kuroda: We won't hesitate to do more | BoJ's Kuroda: We won't hesitate to do more |
| The Bank of Japan has fuelled speculation that it could soon announce fresh stimulus measures, after cutting the Bank’s inflation and growth forecasts. | The Bank of Japan has fuelled speculation that it could soon announce fresh stimulus measures, after cutting the Bank’s inflation and growth forecasts. |
| Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has just told a press conference that the BoJ has more ammunition at its disposal, as it battles against the deflationary pressures gripping the globe. | Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has just told a press conference that the BoJ has more ammunition at its disposal, as it battles against the deflationary pressures gripping the globe. |
| Kuroda insisted that the BoJ could still hit its target of getting inflation to 2% (even it is is taking longer than hoped), saying: | Kuroda insisted that the BoJ could still hit its target of getting inflation to 2% (even it is is taking longer than hoped), saying: |
| “We won’t hesitate to make necessary policy adjustments if we judge that there is a change in the broad price trend.” | “We won’t hesitate to make necessary policy adjustments if we judge that there is a change in the broad price trend.” |
| “I’m not thinking of raising or lowering the current 2% inflation target.” | “I’m not thinking of raising or lowering the current 2% inflation target.” |
| And on the details of monetary policy, Kuroda declared: | And on the details of monetary policy, Kuroda declared: |
| “I don’t think there are limits to our policy options.” | “I don’t think there are limits to our policy options.” |
| *KURODA: DON'T SEE THERE ARE LIMITS TO ANY FURTHER ACTION | *KURODA: DON'T SEE THERE ARE LIMITS TO ANY FURTHER ACTION |
| Kuroda was speaking after the BoJ left its current stimulus programme unchanged at its latest policy meeting, despite evidence that Japan hasn’t shaken off the spectre of deflation. | Kuroda was speaking after the BoJ left its current stimulus programme unchanged at its latest policy meeting, despite evidence that Japan hasn’t shaken off the spectre of deflation. |
| The BoJ also cut its forecast for real economic growth for the current fiscal year to 1.2% from 1.7%. It also kicked back the target for hitting 2% inflation to the back end of 2016, or even early 2017, from the middle of next year. | The BoJ also cut its forecast for real economic growth for the current fiscal year to 1.2% from 1.7%. It also kicked back the target for hitting 2% inflation to the back end of 2016, or even early 2017, from the middle of next year. |
| Some analysts had thought the Bank might boost its 80 trillion yen annual asset-buying scheme today, but Japan’s policymakers are hopeful that the global economy will pick up. | Some analysts had thought the Bank might boost its 80 trillion yen annual asset-buying scheme today, but Japan’s policymakers are hopeful that the global economy will pick up. |
| But there are signs that more may be needed. New figures showed that consumer prices fell 0.1% in the year to September, a second monthly decline, while household spending slid 1.3 percent from a year earlier. | But there are signs that more may be needed. New figures showed that consumer prices fell 0.1% in the year to September, a second monthly decline, while household spending slid 1.3 percent from a year earlier. |
| More here: | More here: |
| Related: Bank of Japan keeps QE programme on hold as it hopes for economic recovery | Related: Bank of Japan keeps QE programme on hold as it hopes for economic recovery |
| Updated at 8.00am GMT | Updated at 8.00am GMT |
| 7.26am GMT07:26 | 7.26am GMT07:26 |
| The Agenda: Will eurozone emerge from deflation? | The Agenda: Will eurozone emerge from deflation? |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| It looks like another busy day for economic news, as policymakers, analysts and the public all ponder the state of the global economy as the year grinds towards its close (just 55 sleeps till Christmas, folks!) | It looks like another busy day for economic news, as policymakers, analysts and the public all ponder the state of the global economy as the year grinds towards its close (just 55 sleeps till Christmas, folks!) |
| In Europe, the latest inflation data come at 10am GMT. It may show that prices stopped falling in the eurozone, after dropping by 0.1% in September. | In Europe, the latest inflation data come at 10am GMT. It may show that prices stopped falling in the eurozone, after dropping by 0.1% in September. |
| We also get European unemployment figures - likely to show that the eurozone jobless crisis is still severe: | We also get European unemployment figures - likely to show that the eurozone jobless crisis is still severe: |
| There’s also a flurry of data coming our way from across the Atlantic. That includes US personal spending stats at 12.30pm and the University of Michigan confidence report at 2pm GMT. | There’s also a flurry of data coming our way from across the Atlantic. That includes US personal spending stats at 12.30pm and the University of Michigan confidence report at 2pm GMT. |
| They’ll both provide more ammunition for the ongoing debate about whether the Federal Reserve will take the plunge and raise interest rates at its December meeting (just 47 sleeps to go!). | They’ll both provide more ammunition for the ongoing debate about whether the Federal Reserve will take the plunge and raise interest rates at its December meeting (just 47 sleeps to go!). |
| Canada will become the latest major economy to report growth figures - economists predict that growth slowed to 0.1% in August from 0.3% in July. | Canada will become the latest major economy to report growth figures - economists predict that growth slowed to 0.1% in August from 0.3% in July. |
| And in the City, it’s quite busy for a Friday. | And in the City, it’s quite busy for a Friday. |
| BG Group, the oil company, has been hit by the weak crude price: | BG Group, the oil company, has been hit by the weak crude price: |
| Oil price slump still hitting profits...@BGGroup profit -63%...but better than expected | Oil price slump still hitting profits...@BGGroup profit -63%...but better than expected |
| And Royal Bank of Scotland has suffered an operating loss of £134m in the last quarter, after taking a £847m charge to cover restructuring costs. | And Royal Bank of Scotland has suffered an operating loss of £134m in the last quarter, after taking a £847m charge to cover restructuring costs. |
| JUST IN: RBS profit falls by more than half in third quarter, missing estimates https://t.co/10Ittj6HsL pic.twitter.com/WPIazisys0 | JUST IN: RBS profit falls by more than half in third quarter, missing estimates https://t.co/10Ittj6HsL pic.twitter.com/WPIazisys0 |
| It still managed to post a net profit though: | It still managed to post a net profit though: |
| RBS smashes forecasts despite litigation costs https://t.co/F3etbhLuQo | RBS smashes forecasts despite litigation costs https://t.co/F3etbhLuQo |
| More details on that later, along with all the main events through the day.... | More details on that later, along with all the main events through the day.... |
| Updated at 7.55am GMT | Updated at 7.55am GMT |