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| Migration of Young Men Poses Risks for Both Syria and Europe | Migration of Young Men Poses Risks for Both Syria and Europe |
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| LESBOS, Greece — When the conflict in Syria began more than four years ago, Mustafa Alabi was a 17-year-old soccer whiz who had quit high school to sew clothing in his father’s workshop. | LESBOS, Greece — When the conflict in Syria began more than four years ago, Mustafa Alabi was a 17-year-old soccer whiz who had quit high school to sew clothing in his father’s workshop. |
| But the war soon consumed his life. The shop burned, and rebels occupied his home in Aleppo. Sheltering with relatives, Mr. Alabi rarely went outside, fearing the army would draft him and send him to the front lines. | But the war soon consumed his life. The shop burned, and rebels occupied his home in Aleppo. Sheltering with relatives, Mr. Alabi rarely went outside, fearing the army would draft him and send him to the front lines. |
| Then, like many before him, he fled to Europe, where he landed last month: 22 years old, with a backpack, a ninth-grade education and little idea what to do next. | Then, like many before him, he fled to Europe, where he landed last month: 22 years old, with a backpack, a ninth-grade education and little idea what to do next. |
| “I have no specific hopes,” he said hesitantly, after struggling to buy bread here because he speaks only Arabic. “But God willing, after I register, if there is a way to play soccer. …” He added, “Maybe I can sew?” | “I have no specific hopes,” he said hesitantly, after struggling to buy bread here because he speaks only Arabic. “But God willing, after I register, if there is a way to play soccer. …” He added, “Maybe I can sew?” |
| Of the more than half a million migrants and refugees who have flooded Europe this year, many are young men like Mr. Alabi. While some are educated or bring skills, many have lost critical formative years to violent conflicts that have interrupted educations and aborted careers. Some have borne arms, languished in prison or lived under radical Islamic groups like the Taliban or the Islamic State, experiences that have left them with physical and emotional scars. | Of the more than half a million migrants and refugees who have flooded Europe this year, many are young men like Mr. Alabi. While some are educated or bring skills, many have lost critical formative years to violent conflicts that have interrupted educations and aborted careers. Some have borne arms, languished in prison or lived under radical Islamic groups like the Taliban or the Islamic State, experiences that have left them with physical and emotional scars. |
| The mass displacement of so many young men poses great challenges to countries like Syria, home to more than half of those fleeing: The exodus deprives them of a demographic vital to reconstruction and economic growth. | The mass displacement of so many young men poses great challenges to countries like Syria, home to more than half of those fleeing: The exodus deprives them of a demographic vital to reconstruction and economic growth. |
| There are also great risks for Europe, which has long struggled to assimilate immigrants and could face the creation of a new underclass that taxes the public purse. Many also worry that pockets of radicalization could grow if the aspirations of the new arrivals end in isolation and poverty. | There are also great risks for Europe, which has long struggled to assimilate immigrants and could face the creation of a new underclass that taxes the public purse. Many also worry that pockets of radicalization could grow if the aspirations of the new arrivals end in isolation and poverty. |
| “We know on the positive side that migration can boost economies and trade and lead to cultural exchange,” said Lado Gvilava, the head of the International Organization for Migration in Turkey, the departure point for most migrants. “But if it is mismanaged, it becomes a problem for both the receiving states and the countries left behind.” | “We know on the positive side that migration can boost economies and trade and lead to cultural exchange,” said Lado Gvilava, the head of the International Organization for Migration in Turkey, the departure point for most migrants. “But if it is mismanaged, it becomes a problem for both the receiving states and the countries left behind.” |
| Aid groups say the chaotic nature of the human traffic has left them without a full picture of the current wave of people reaching Europe. The United Nations refugee agency says that just over half are Syrians, followed by smaller groups from Afghanistan, Eritrea, Iraq and elsewhere. Sixty-nine percent are men, 13 percent women and 18 percent children. | Aid groups say the chaotic nature of the human traffic has left them without a full picture of the current wave of people reaching Europe. The United Nations refugee agency says that just over half are Syrians, followed by smaller groups from Afghanistan, Eritrea, Iraq and elsewhere. Sixty-nine percent are men, 13 percent women and 18 percent children. |
| The largest single group appears to be young men, open to adventure but woefully ill informed about what they are getting into. Among the dozens of them interviewed recently in Turkey and Greece, only a few spoke any languages other than their native tongue, and most knew little about the countries they hoped to make their new homes. Some were surprised to learn that beer and pork are prominent in German cuisine. | The largest single group appears to be young men, open to adventure but woefully ill informed about what they are getting into. Among the dozens of them interviewed recently in Turkey and Greece, only a few spoke any languages other than their native tongue, and most knew little about the countries they hoped to make their new homes. Some were surprised to learn that beer and pork are prominent in German cuisine. |
| “Our only hope is in Europe,” said Mohammed Atiyya, 21, a Palestinian from Damascus who had been training as a metal worker when he was drafted into the Syrian Army. | “Our only hope is in Europe,” said Mohammed Atiyya, 21, a Palestinian from Damascus who had been training as a metal worker when he was drafted into the Syrian Army. |
| After nearing the end of what was supposed to be a two-year stint, he realized he was more likely to end up dead than decommissioned, so he deserted, later fleeing to Europe by raft. | After nearing the end of what was supposed to be a two-year stint, he realized he was more likely to end up dead than decommissioned, so he deserted, later fleeing to Europe by raft. |
| He is now in Hamburg, Germany. | He is now in Hamburg, Germany. |
| United Nations officials report meeting many educated Syrians, including engineers, civil servants and small-business owners, who were solidly middle class before the war, but have since lost homes and businesses. | United Nations officials report meeting many educated Syrians, including engineers, civil servants and small-business owners, who were solidly middle class before the war, but have since lost homes and businesses. |
| A minority arrive with clear plans. | A minority arrive with clear plans. |
| “My destination is France because I speak French,” said Fayez, 27, a Syrian dentist who said he had fled Aleppo because he risked his life going to work every day. | “My destination is France because I speak French,” said Fayez, 27, a Syrian dentist who said he had fled Aleppo because he risked his life going to work every day. |
| After he was detained by rebels, he submitted an asylum application to France, but it was rejected, he said, so he now planned to sneak in, register as a refugee and continue his career. | After he was detained by rebels, he submitted an asylum application to France, but it was rejected, he said, so he now planned to sneak in, register as a refugee and continue his career. |
| “We didn’t flee because we didn’t have the money, but because of insecurity,” he said in Greece, giving only his first name to protect relatives in Syria. | “We didn’t flee because we didn’t have the money, but because of insecurity,” he said in Greece, giving only his first name to protect relatives in Syria. |
| The countries of Europe face a difficult task in integrating the migrants into their work force so they can contribute economically instead of adding to the social burden. | The countries of Europe face a difficult task in integrating the migrants into their work force so they can contribute economically instead of adding to the social burden. |
| Many of the new arrivals lack transferable skills and speak no European languages. Even professionals like doctors and engineers are unlikely to have their foreign credentials recognized. | Many of the new arrivals lack transferable skills and speak no European languages. Even professionals like doctors and engineers are unlikely to have their foreign credentials recognized. |
| To succeed, Europe must invest heavily in programs to teach migrants languages, pair skilled workers with jobs and help everyone else find training and work, said Demetrios G. Papademetriou, the president of the Migration Policy Institute Europe. | To succeed, Europe must invest heavily in programs to teach migrants languages, pair skilled workers with jobs and help everyone else find training and work, said Demetrios G. Papademetriou, the president of the Migration Policy Institute Europe. |
| Countries like Germany and Sweden have organized economies and labor needs that could facilitate this, he said. But Austria has a small work force, and Spain, Italy and Greece have economic problems and high unemployment, leaving little room for migrants. | Countries like Germany and Sweden have organized economies and labor needs that could facilitate this, he said. But Austria has a small work force, and Spain, Italy and Greece have economic problems and high unemployment, leaving little room for migrants. |
| “This could lead to a serious set of troubles for Europe, politically and economically, in the next few years,” Mr. Papademetriou said. | “This could lead to a serious set of troubles for Europe, politically and economically, in the next few years,” Mr. Papademetriou said. |
| Many worry that migrant populations that fail to integrate could become fertile ground for unrest or radicalization, especially if they find themselves under attack by right-wing elements. | Many worry that migrant populations that fail to integrate could become fertile ground for unrest or radicalization, especially if they find themselves under attack by right-wing elements. |
| And a terrorist attack linked to even a tiny group of migrants could change the situation for all. At present, there is little to stop jihadists from the Islamic State or other radical groups from covertly slipping in with other migrants. | And a terrorist attack linked to even a tiny group of migrants could change the situation for all. At present, there is little to stop jihadists from the Islamic State or other radical groups from covertly slipping in with other migrants. |
| The Greek authorities on Lesbos, where most migrants now arrive, have at times been so overwhelmed with newcomers that they suspended fingerprinting and photographing refugees to speed up registration, said Djamal Zamzoum of the United Nations refugee agency on the island. | The Greek authorities on Lesbos, where most migrants now arrive, have at times been so overwhelmed with newcomers that they suspended fingerprinting and photographing refugees to speed up registration, said Djamal Zamzoum of the United Nations refugee agency on the island. |
| Others arrive with no documents or lie about their origins, making them hard to identify, he said. And fleeing war traumatizes many migrants, further complicating their assimilation. | Others arrive with no documents or lie about their origins, making them hard to identify, he said. And fleeing war traumatizes many migrants, further complicating their assimilation. |
| Mohammed Abdul-Haq, a Palestinian from Damascus, was working in a sweet shop when the Syrian government arrested him in a sweep aimed at dissidents, he said. During three and a half years in prison, he was hung by his wrists and beaten during interrogation. | |
| Released in August, he rushed to Turkey to head for Europe with his wife and their 10-year-old daughter, but he had thought little about what he would do once he got there. | Released in August, he rushed to Turkey to head for Europe with his wife and their 10-year-old daughter, but he had thought little about what he would do once he got there. |
| “I have no idea,” said Mr. Abdul-Haq, 38. “I just want to get there and be safe.” | “I have no idea,” said Mr. Abdul-Haq, 38. “I just want to get there and be safe.” |
| How the outflow affects Syria will probably depend on how and when the civil war ends. | How the outflow affects Syria will probably depend on how and when the civil war ends. |
| Many of those fleeing to Europe have recently left areas controlled by President Bashar al-Assad, saying that basic infrastructure was failing and that life had become dangerous. Some have quit the army or are dodging service, deepening the personnel shortage of his army. | Many of those fleeing to Europe have recently left areas controlled by President Bashar al-Assad, saying that basic infrastructure was failing and that life had become dangerous. Some have quit the army or are dodging service, deepening the personnel shortage of his army. |
| Scholars of human migration say that the longer conflicts last and the farther away refugees settle, the less likely they are to go home. | Scholars of human migration say that the longer conflicts last and the farther away refugees settle, the less likely they are to go home. |
| After the conflict in Bosnia, many refugees returned, if not necessarily to their home communities, which had been subjected to ethnic cleansing, said Laura Hammond, the head of the development studies department at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London. Many refugees returned to Chechnya after the conflict there because they had settled nearby in other parts of Russia, where they did not feel welcome. | After the conflict in Bosnia, many refugees returned, if not necessarily to their home communities, which had been subjected to ethnic cleansing, said Laura Hammond, the head of the development studies department at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London. Many refugees returned to Chechnya after the conflict there because they had settled nearby in other parts of Russia, where they did not feel welcome. |
| But even those who remain abroad often retain strong ties with their home countries, Ms. Hammond said, either by sending money to their relatives or by returning occasionally with capital and experience acquired abroad to invest and start businesses. | But even those who remain abroad often retain strong ties with their home countries, Ms. Hammond said, either by sending money to their relatives or by returning occasionally with capital and experience acquired abroad to invest and start businesses. |
| “We should think of these men as part of the work force who will eventually help rebuild the country,” she said of the men fleeing Syria. “They don’t think of themselves as permanently gone.” | “We should think of these men as part of the work force who will eventually help rebuild the country,” she said of the men fleeing Syria. “They don’t think of themselves as permanently gone.” |
| But with the Syrian war in its fifth year and no end in sight, few of those heading for Europe plan to go back. | But with the Syrian war in its fifth year and no end in sight, few of those heading for Europe plan to go back. |
| Waiting in a park in Turkey before catching a raft to Greece, Mohammed, 41, said the battle for Aleppo had chased his family from their home and wrecked the body shop where he had worked. | Waiting in a park in Turkey before catching a raft to Greece, Mohammed, 41, said the battle for Aleppo had chased his family from their home and wrecked the body shop where he had worked. |
| Now he was aiming to settle in Germany and bring his wife, their four children and his mother, he said, declining to give his last name to protect his family. | Now he was aiming to settle in Germany and bring his wife, their four children and his mother, he said, declining to give his last name to protect his family. |
| He would work wherever he could, he said, and he was carrying a book to teach himself German. | He would work wherever he could, he said, and he was carrying a book to teach himself German. |
| “The words are very heavy,” he said, unable to produce a phrase. He knew little more about his destination. | “The words are very heavy,” he said, unable to produce a phrase. He knew little more about his destination. |
| “It is a beautiful country, and the people are nice,” he said. “That’s what I have heard.” | “It is a beautiful country, and the people are nice,” he said. “That’s what I have heard.” |