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European Leaders Discuss Ukraine as Russia Flexes Muscle in Syria
European Leaders Take Up Ukraine Issues as Russia Hits Syria
(about 7 hours later)
PARIS — The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France met here on Friday for a summit meeting that is aimed at bolstering the peace process in eastern Ukraine but has been overshadowed by Russia’s military action in Syria.
PARIS — The fragile cease-fire in Ukraine brought the leaders of Russia, Germany, Ukraine and France together in Paris on Friday for a summit meeting meant to strengthen it, in a meeting that was overshadowed by events in the Middle East.
Just after noon, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia arrived at the Élysée Palace in Paris, where President François Hollande of France is hosting the gathering. President Petro O. Poroshenko of Ukraine and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany joined him an hour later.
“How could we not talk about this subject?” President François Hollande of France said at a news conference afterward that was dominated by questions about the conflict in Syria. Russia has recently deployed military forces there and begun airstrikes.
After a series of one-on-one meetings, the leaders sat down to discuss the situation in eastern Ukraine, where a military conflict between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian government forces has left nearly 8,000 dead since April 2014 and has prompted the European Union and the United States to impose heavy economic sanctions on Russia.
Mr. Hollande and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany spoke at the news conference, but the other two summit meeting participants, Presidents Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and Petro O. Poroshenko of Ukraine, did not attend.
The meeting’s stated purpose is to shore up the Minsk accord, the agreement between the four powers that was hammered out in the capital of Belarus in February. It is supposed to be put in effect by the end of this year, and the talks on Friday are intended to iron out remaining differences. A more recent deal was reached on the withdrawal of small-caliber weapons.
The continuing refugee crisis, fueled in part by the war in Syria, is a source of great concern for France and Germany. It has shifted attention away from eastern Ukraine, where a military conflict between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian government forces has left nearly 8,000 people dead since April 2014 and has prompted the European Union and the United States to impose heavy economic sanctions on Russia.
But after Russian airstrikes in Syria that began on Wednesday against positions held by antigovernment rebels, the situation in Ukraine has been eclipsed by concerns that Russia intends to use the pretext of strikes against the Islamic State to defend the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad.
In the meantime, though, there was work to do to shore up the Minsk accord, the peace agreement for Ukraine that the four powers hammered out in Belarus in February.
A French diplomat, who was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter, said Syria was certain to come up. “I would be astonished if they didn’t discuss Syria,” he said.
Mr. Hollande and Ms. Merkel offered cautious optimism about the accord at the news conference. “Minsk is holding up,” Mr. Hollande said of the cease-fire, and Ms. Merkel agreed, even though the agreement had not been respected “100 percent.”
The governments of France and Germany — along with those of Britain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United States — criticized Russia’s bombing campaign in Syria in a joint statement on Friday morning.
The accord is supposed to be put into full effect by the end of the year, and the talks in Paris were intended to iron out remaining differences. But Mr. Hollande said on Friday that the process would probably extend beyond the end of the year.
“We express our deep concern with regard to the Russian military buildup in Syria, and especially the attacks by the Russian Air Force on Hama and Homs yesterday, which led to civilian casualties and did not target Daesh,” the governments said in a statement, using an Arabic acronym for the Islamic State. “These military actions constitute a further escalation and will only fuel more extremism and radicalization.”
A more recent deal was reached on the withdrawal of small-caliber weapons, and Mr. Hollande made it clear that much of Friday’s discussion focused on that.
One of Mr. Putin’s aims in shifting the focus to Syria and away from Ukraine is to push Europe and the United States to lift economic sanctions against Russia. If Ukraine stays quiet, and Russia is leading the war against Islamic State, pressure could mount on the West to discontinue the sanctions.
“We wanted to insure that the withdrawal of light weapons could begin tomorrow morning at midnight,” Mr. Hollande said. “For the heavy weapons, there would be a comparable process.”
Even though French officials have emphasized that the two conflicts are distinct and that Syria would not be the focus of the talks on Friday, there is little doubt that Mr. Hollande and Ms. Merkel will raise the issue with Mr. Putin. The continuing refugee crisis, fueled in part by the war in Syria, is a source of great concern for France and Germany and has shifted their focus from the conflict in Ukraine.
Another major concern were contentious plans for local elections. The Ukrainian government in Kiev scheduled balloting for Oct. 25, but could conduct it only in territory it controls. Rebels in the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk had said they would hold their own balloting on Oct. 18 and in early November, over Kiev’s objections.
French officials told The Associated Press and Reuters that Mr. Hollande and Mr. Putin had discussed the airstrikes, and other policy differences. Russia is a strong ally of Mr. Assad; France has repeatedly said that Mr. Assad’s departure needed to be a precondition for any political solution to the conflict.
Mr. Hollande said at the news conference that “the elections on the 18th of October can’t be held.” He said the four leaders agreed that local elections would be held under Ukrainian law, and that it would take at least three months to organize them, necessitating an extension of the Minsk accord beyond Dec. 31.
Russia and Ukraine have repeatedly pledged to push the carrying out of the Minsk agreement — and accused the other of foot-dragging.
“I cannot see separatists’ winning the elections, and if they are not going to be elected, the Russians are probably not interested,” said one Western diplomat in Kiev, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. “But neither Russia nor Ukraine wants to be responsible for the failure of the elections.”
“Unfortunately, there is still a long way to go to its resolution,” Mr. Putin said on the eve of his departure for Paris. “Yet there are things inspiring confidence that this crisis can be overcome.”
Russia and Ukraine have repeatedly pledged to carry out the Minsk accord — and have repeatedly accused each other of foot-dragging and other misdeeds.
He called the cease-fire, now entering its second month, the main sign of that. This week, all sides agreed on the withdrawal of tanks and other weapons from the front line.
The Ukrainian government says the Kremlin has sent thousands of troops and advanced weapons across the border into Ukraine. Russia denies that it has any active forces there. For its part, Russia insists that the February 2014 revolution in Ukraine was a coup plotted by the West, and it has annexed the Crimean Peninsula.
The Ukrainian government accuses the Kremlin of deploying military hardware and thousands of troops on its soil. Russia has repeatedly denied it has any active forces in Ukraine. It says the February 2014 revolution there was a coup plotted by the West.
President Poroshenko of Ukraine has tried to persuade European leaders to put pressure on Moscow, imposing new sanctions if necessary, by calling the fight for Ukraine a fight for European values.
Many analysts say that Russia is seeking to create a frozen conflict there that will permanently destabilize Ukraine, much as it did in Georgia before its 2008 war and in various other countries of the former Soviet Union to keep them out of the orbit of the European Union.
Ukrainian demands include free access throughout the conflict zone for the cease-fire monitors sent by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, or O.S.C.E.; the withdrawal of Russian military forces, military equipment and volunteer fighters from Ukraine; and the restoration of Ukrainian control over its southern border with Russia.
Mr. Poroshenko has constantly tried to persuade European leaders to pressure Moscow, including with new sanctions if necessary, by calling the fight for Ukraine a fight for European values.
The first and most important provision of the Minsk accord, a cease-fire, did not materialize for months, and the fighting that erupted in the southeast in August was among the fiercest so far. But a renewed cease-fire agreement for Sept. 1 took hold, and the area has remained largely calm since then.
Ukrainian demands include universal access for cease-fire monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe; the withdrawal of Russian military forces, military equipment and volunteer fighters from Ukraine; and the restoration of Ukrainian control over its southern border with Russia.
The Kremlin appeared to switch its focus, talking about Syria and terrorism and Mr. Putin’s central role in defusing the global threat from the Islamic State, while Ukraine all but disappeared from Russian state-run television stations.
“Freedom, peace, respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity — Ukraine doesn’t demand more,” Mr. Poroshenko said in a speech this week at the United Nations.
The longer the cease-fire continues to hold, the more willing the public on both sides will probably be to accept a compromise.
The United States is not directly involved in the negotiations. It has helped train new military forces, and Ukraine has continued to lobby the Americans for more powerful weapons, but so far Washington has resisted.
From the beginning, Russia has been talking about “federalizing” Ukraine, giving its regions much more autonomy, including the power to conduct their own foreign relations and trade policies. The Ukrainian government in Kiev opposes the idea, seeing it as a formula for endless Russian meddling and perhaps even the disintegration of the country.
All year, the first, most important provision in the Minsk accord, a cease-fire, never materialized, with some of the worst fighting in southeastern Ukraine erupting in August. But a renewed cease-fire agreement for Sept. 1 suddenly took hold, and the area has remained largely calm ever since.
Instead, it has been pushing decentralization, a different model along the lines of France’s approach to its regions. They would get more revenue-sharing from the national government and their councils would get somewhat more freedom, subject only to a presidential override.
The Kremlin appeared to switch its focus, talking about Syria and terrorism and Mr. Putin’s central role in defusing the global threat from the Islamic State. Ukraine all but disappeared from Russia’s state-run television stations.
A decentralization law suffered a turbulent passage through the Ukrainian Parliament, where a nationalist bloc has accused Mr. Poroshenko of caving in to Russia and taking too much presidential power. During the vote on the bill in late August, violent demonstrations outside Parliament left three members of the National Guard dead. Although the law was enacted, Russia says it has not been put into effect.
Mr. Putin, seeking to find a new distraction for a Russian public weary with Ukraine and to get Western economic sanctions lifted, seemed to pressure his allies in the breakaway republics of Luhansk and Donetsk, known collectively as Donbas, to take a new tack.
Russia also accuses Ukraine of violating the Minsk accord by not negotiating directly with the rebel leaders in the breakaway regions, known collectively as the Donbass. “The people of Donbass should have their rights and interests genuinely considered, and their choice respected,” Mr. Putin said in a speech at the United Nations on Monday.
Suddenly, they started talking about the political process and being part of Ukraine. The longer the cease-fire holds, the more the public on both sides will most likely be willing to accept compromise after 16 months of fighting.
Ukraine says it is negotiating with the Donbass rebel leaders, but is doing so through the Trilateral Contact Group that was set up after the Minsk talks. Western governments have supported continuing the talks that way.
There are potential pitfalls along the way. A long-awaited report from a Dutch inquiry into the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in July 2014, killing all 298 people aboard, is due on Oct. 13. The plane, which was flying to Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, from Amsterdam, is widely believed to have been struck by a missile fired by separatist forces, a conclusion that Moscow disputes. It has blocked the formation of a United Nations tribunal on the issue.
The O.S.C.E. cease-fire monitors reported on Monday what appeared to be clear evidence that Russia had transferred heavy weapons to the rebels. The monitors said that at a military training area in Luhansk, they saw a Russian-made launching system called a TOS-1, nicknamed Pinocchio, which can fire rockets with highly destructive thermobaric or fuel-air warheads.
From the beginning of the crisis, Russia has been talking about the “federalization” of Ukraine, including allowing the regions to forge their own foreign and trade policies. Kiev opposes that, seeing it as a formula for endless Russian meddling and perhaps even the disintegration of the country.
The Kiev government has been asserting for more than a year that Russia has supplied that type of weapons system and others to the separatist rebels, while Russia has denied any involvement in the conflict in eastern Ukraine other than supplying humanitarian aid.
Instead, it has been pushing decentralization, a kind of French model that means enhanced revenue sharing with the regions and autonomy for local councils that only the president could override.
The law faced a turbulent passage through the Ukrainian Parliament, where a nationalist bloc accused Mr. Poroshenko of caving in to Russia and of taking too much presidential power. Violent demonstrations outside Parliament during the vote in late August killed three members of the National Guard. Although there is a law, Russia says it has not been put into effect.
Russia accuses Ukraine of violating the Minsk agreement by not negotiating directly with the leaders of the breakaway regions.
“The people of Donbas should have their rights and interests genuinely considered, and their choice respected,” Mr. Putin said in a speech at the United Nations on Monday. “They should be engaged in devising the key elements of the country’s political system, in line with the provisions of the Minsk agreements.”
Ukraine says it is negotiating with the leaders of Donbas, but through the Trilateral Contact Group set up after the Minsk talks and supervised by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Western capitals have supported the idea that negotiations continue under that formula. They have resisted the idea that Kiev negotiate with the separatists, as that would allow Russia to claim that it is strictly an internal Ukrainian matter.
The test will be local elections that Kiev has set for Oct. 25. Donetsk and Luhansk keep threatening to organize their own votes on Oct. 18 and in early November. That is one of the issues to be addressed in Paris, and the compromise is difficult to anticipate.
“I cannot see separatists winning the elections, and if they are not going to be elected, the Russians are probably not interested,” said one Western diplomat in Kiev, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. “But neither Russia nor Ukraine wants to be responsible for the failure of the elections.”
