Debate, Benghazi, a Biden decision: October is when it gets real for Clinton
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Version 0 of 1. The month of October may be a crucial inflection point for Hillary Rodham Clinton’s struggling presidential campaign, with a series of events on the calendar that play to her political strengths but pose further risk if she fails to regain her grasp of the election narrative. They include the first debate of the Democratic candidates, on Oct. 13; her testimony before the House Select Committee on Benghazi on the 22nd; and, three days after that, a high-profile appearance with the other contenders at an annual Democratic dinner in Iowa that is legendary as a launchpad for the primary season. In addition to the three big events already on the calendar, October also is likely to bring the resolution of a big X factor hanging over Clinton: whether Vice President Biden will join the 2016 race. Clinton needs to score big wins in public appearances this month, strategists and advisers said, and use the platforms and large audiences that will come with the Benghazi hearing and the debate to reassert her position as the most dominant figure in Democratic politics. If she cannot capitalize on the political opportunities of October, she could go into the first round of primaries and caucuses looking more vulnerable than just about anyone would have imagined when she entered the race in April. Already, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is drawing far larger and more enthusiastic crowds and sapping Clinton’s shaky support on the far left. Biden’s entry could compound Clinton’s difficulties in consolidating the remainder of the Democratic base — as well as her claim to being the most experienced candidate. October began with sobering news for her supporters. Clinton raised barely more in political donations over the summer than Sanders, her stronger-than-expected challenger, despite a formidable campaign organization and the mantle of Democratic front-runner. The figures released late Wednesday gain added significance because Clinton is running behind or even with Sanders in the latest polls from Iowa and New Hampshire — even though her campaign has invested heavily in time and money in those first two primary-season contests. Additionally, Clinton’s favorability ratings have sunk to near their lowest point ever amid a controversy that has boiled for months over her decision not to use a government e-mail account while she was secretary of state and rely instead on a private account and server. “October really provides two important forums where she can connect her message, without the interference of questions about the e-mails,” Democratic pollster Geoff Garin said, referring to the debate and the Iowa Democratic dinner. Both are comfortable settings for Clinton, said Garin, who was chief strategist in the latter stages of Clinton’s unsuccessful 2008 presidential bid and now works for the pro-Clinton super PAC Priorities USA Action. Clinton’s campaign and outside backers said the $28 million she has raised since June met expectations. “On fundraising, we said we wanted to raise $100 million by the end of the year; we’ve now raised $75 million,” campaign communications director Jennifer Palmieri said. Sanders raked in $26 million in the third quarter, despite a smaller and less expensive fundraising operation. Moreover, he did it with an explosion of small contributions, a measure of the enthusiasm he is generating among rank-and-file Democrats. [Sanders nearly matches Clinton in fundraising for third quarter] In an effort to put the e-mail issue behind her, Clinton has embarked in recent weeks on what her campaign acknowledges is an effort to present her as more warm, open and accessible. Some parts of that strategy have worked better than others. Clinton’s allies say they believe she acquitted herself well in a series of interviews with television journalists, but they worry about some of the more unconventional settings into which she has been placed. An interview with the edgy actress Lena Dunham, for instance, included an on-message discussion of modern feminism alongside an awkward question about a caught-on-camera wardrobe malfunction at a Lenny Kravitz concert. Had Clinton seen what happened, Dunham asked, when the front of the singer’s pants split? Clinton played along, adopting an arch expression. Some supporters said the exchange, aimed at young women, showed Clinton’s earthy sense of humor and regular-gal sensibility. Others were appalled. “She’s getting a lot of crazy advice,” said one dismayed Clinton friend of four decades, who declined to be identified so he could speak frankly. “They need to let her be Hillary.” The debate and the Iowa dinner will provide Clinton a chance to be in the spotlight talking about her policy proposals and vision for the country — something that has been all but impossible for her to do over the media din surrounding her e-mail account. [What Hillary Clinton’s e-mails tell us about her management style] Clinton has generally done well in debate settings in the past, and attacks on her have often backfired. In her 2000 Senate campaign in New York, her Republican opponent, Rep. Rick A. Lazio, crossed the stage toward her, waving a piece of paper and challenging her to sign a pledge renouncing the use of unregulated “soft” money in her campaign. What he had meant as a challenge to her ethics came off as bullying, and his campaign never recovered. Similarly, then-Sen. Barack Obama may have blown his big lead in the 2008 New Hampshire primary when he was asked about Clinton’s personality and said, with an air of condescension, “You’re likable enough, Hillary.” As a result of her surprise victory there, their brutal primary battle went on for another five months. The number of candidates will be smaller than the crowd on the stage of the two GOP debates. It could include Clinton, Sanders, former Maryland governor Martin O’Malley, former Rhode Island governor and senator Lincoln Chafee and former senator Jim Webb of Virginia. Debate sponsor CNN has said that Biden could also join them if he declares his intention to run as late as the day of the event. Clinton aides say that they have studied Sanders’s past debates and note that he is forceful and skillful at sparring. Sanders has avoided any personal criticism of Clinton, and his advisers say that will not change during the debate. Democratic campaign veterans predict that none of her opponents is likely to bring up the e-mail controversy before a Democratic audience, for fear of looking like they are echoing the attack lines of the Republicans. The Democratic dinner in Iowa presents another kind of challenge for Clinton. When she arrived at the dinner in 2008, she was considered the all-but-inevitable Democratic nominee. But in retrospect, the evening turned out to be a harbinger of the problems ahead for her. Obama gave one of the best, most inspirational speeches of his career — one that is remembered alongside his 2004 Democratic convention keynote. The senator from Illinois, a newcomer on the national political scene, vowed to lead “not by polls but by principle; not by calculation, but by conviction” — drawing an unstated but unmistakable contrast with Clinton. Obama “went in there and made a speech that defined the entire race. He took hold of the race and never let go again,” said Anita Dunn, who was an aide to Obama’s campaign and later his White House communications director. Among those who showed up to cheer for Obama were throngs of young people, whose enthusiasm hinted at another problem ahead for Clinton. They did not look like typical Iowa caucus-goers, and Clinton’s team initially dismissed their significance. Roger Simon of Politico wrote that Clinton adviser Mandy Grunwald boasted: “Our people look like caucus-goers, and his people look like they are 18. [Clinton strategist Mark] Penn said they look like Facebook.” Penn himself added, “Only a few of their people look like they could vote in any state.” But on caucus night the following January, they did indeed show up, catapulting Obama to a victory in Iowa and leaving Clinton in third place. Eight years later, it appears that Sanders is the closest thing to a candidate who can generate that kind of electricity. The Iowa dinner will be an early indication of what Clinton has to offer in response — and what lessons she learned from her 2008 defeat. [How Bernie Sanders would transform the nation] Democrats also believe that Republicans stand a big chance of overplaying their hand when Clinton goes behind the witness table before the Benghazi committee. House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), the odds-on favorite to become the next speaker of the House, undermined his party’s effort to portray the committee’s work as a sober and substantive probe of the 2012 terrorist attacks in Libya that cost the lives of Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens and three other Americans. “Everybody thought Hillary Clinton was unbeatable, right?” McCarthy said in a show of glee during in an interview Tuesday night on Fox News. “But we put together a Benghazi special committee, a select committee. What are her numbers today? Her numbers are dropping. Why? Because she’s untrustable. But no one would have known any of that had happened, had we not fought.” Democrats pounced. “What McCarthy said reaffirms what I already believe, that they have tried to push this as far into 2016 as possible,” said Rep. Elijah E. Cummings (D-Md.), ranking Democrat on the select committee. “If we were to come into that hearing with Secretary Clinton under what was supposed to be our mandate, that’s one thing. But if you walk in there, and you know that the intention is to derail her campaign, that cuts against the integrity of the entire investigation.” [Kevin McCarthy’s comments about Benghazi should trouble Republicans] Clinton has testified seven times about Benghazi, and she mostly emerged looking smooth and professional. An exception came when a conservative senator goaded Clinton, weeks away from leaving her post as secretary of state, with questions about whether the Obama administration had tried to paper over the terrorist implications of the attacks. “What difference, at this point, does it make?” Clinton thundered. Her point was that four Americans were dead and nothing could change that, but Republicans have used the exchange to say Clinton was callous and politically calculating. This time, particularly in light of the McCarthy remark, Clinton is expected to try to turn the tables and make Republicans look craven. “We think it is helpful for the origins and motivations of the committee to be out in the public and be understood prior to the hearing,” Palmieri said. “But I don’t think it will change how she approaches the hearing.” David Weigel contributed to this report. |