Turnbull must change climate policies or he will perish
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Version 0 of 1. “The one thing that is clear about our current situation is the trajectory. We have lost 30 Newspolls in a row.” With that pronouncement, Malcolm Turnbull launched his coup against first-term Liberal prime minister Tony Abbott. His pitch to his party colleagues and to the public was almost entirely centred around the dire polling situation for the Australian government. It was a problem of style, not a problem of policy. At that fateful press conference and all subsequent public appearances, Malcolm Turnbull has reiterated the same message. The policies were right. The problem was the salesman and the marketing. “What we have not succeeded in doing,” said Turnbull, “is translating those values into the policies and the ideas that will excite the Australian people and encourage them to believe and understand that we have a vision for their future.” To become prime minister, Turnbull locked in his support for Abbott's perilous carbon pollution reduction targets. It is this point that civil society organisations, especially climate organisations, must grasp. The new prime minister, with surging public good will, is in the strongest position to deliver the change in policy direction that Australians want, and at his most vulnerable to a concerted push by community organisations. The paradox is that in order to become prime minister, like Tony Abbott before him, Malcolm Turnbull has completely sublimated his own values to those of the Liberal machine, especially the right faction that controls the party. As Katharine Murphy wrote for The Guardian, the same Liberal machine ate Tony Abbott. In order to receive the support of the powers-that-be, the neoliberal “multi-time zone eminence like Murdoch”, Abbott had to shed his Jesuitical views of justice. Similarly, Turnbull has spent the years since he was deposed by Abbott in 2009 suppressing his progressive social views to court the hard right of the Liberal party. In his first statements as prime minister designate, and in his first question time as prime minister, Turnbull reaffirmed his support for the Direct Action policy he once derided as “a farce” and a “con”. He stated back in 2009 that the majority of the Liberal party members of parliament did not believe that climate change was real. That statement is true today as it was in 2009. In order to become prime minister, Turnbull has locked in his support for Abbott’s perilously inadequate carbon pollution reduction targets for the Paris climate meeting. The Liberal government’s targets, if they were adopted globally, would amount to a climate suicide pact. He has even provided written commitments to the climate change denialists in the National party, signing a new Coalition agreement that would rule out the introduction of an emissions trading scheme. Similarly, Turnbull once supported a parliamentary vote to legalise same-sex marriage. Tony Abbott’s tactic to delay same-sex marriage was to propose a plebiscite, and Turnbull has confirmed that this remains the policy of his new prime ministership. So much for principles. Politics, as Turnbull once said, is about convictions and a commitment to carry out those commitments. Civil society organisations face an enormously important strategic moment. Turnbull is only prime minister because of the disastrous polls that dogged Tony Abbott for the past fifteen months. In order to remain as prime minister, Turnbull must get a polling boost and sustain that boost. Civil society organisations, like climate groups, same-sex marriage advocates or community groups like GetUp face an enormously important strategic moment. They can wait to see if Turnbull’s new style of leadership results in changes to the substantive policies. Given his statements in the first few days, it is unlikely that on the major policies that defined the Abbott government, the Turnbull government will change course. And the real risk is that Turnbull’s commitments to regressive elements within his government means that the policy change may be stalled for many years to come. Or they can pile on the pressure and demand change be implemented now. Turnbull does have significant political capital to spend. The Australia people want a change of direction, not just a change of captain. They would back in a new prime minister who made real commitments to climate action, who stopped the cruel refugee policies, who legalised same-sex marriage, who dropped plans to deregulate the university sector. A concerted push by civil society groups now would result in real change, and give Turnbull the moral authority he would need to stand up to the troglodytes in the Liberal and National parties. When Jeff Kennett slammed Turnbull as the “Kevin Rudd of the Liberal party” he was not far from the truth. Kevin Rudd’s political authority came from his popular support with the Australian people; he had no natural internal supporter base within the Labor party. While he rode high in the polls, he survived. When he dropped in the polls, he became vulnerable. So too is Turnbull’s natural party base wafer-thin. His claim to authority rests in the hope amongst his colleagues that he will turn Newspoll around. And Australians desperately want a substantive change, not just a new style. As unpopular as Abbott was, all the public (and many private) polls and focus groups demonstrated that the keystone policies of the Abbott-era were as hated as the former prime minister. Turnbull will likely get a sugar hit in the polls simply because he is not Abbott. Unless he jettisons the unpopular policies, whether it is the insane climate policies, the flawed commitment to a dud China trade deal or the inhumane refugee boat turn-backs, his standing in the Liberal party will fail. If climate groups, social justice groups and civil society organisations realise that they can impact on Turnbull’s popularity, then they may be able to achieve genuine policy outcomes. This article is written in a personal capacity and reflects the author’s personal views. |