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| EU referendum's reworded question welcomed by experts and campaigners | EU referendum's reworded question welcomed by experts and campaigners |
| (about 3 hours later) | |
| Referendum experts have welcomed the Electoral Commission’s decision to avoid a yes or no question in the forthcoming EU poll, claiming that it will avert any potential confusion about exactly what is being asked. | Referendum experts have welcomed the Electoral Commission’s decision to avoid a yes or no question in the forthcoming EU poll, claiming that it will avert any potential confusion about exactly what is being asked. |
| In an attempt to avoid a potentially leading question, the Electoral Commission has recommended that the plebiscite’s options should be “remain” or “leave”. Downing Street has accepted the recommendation. | In an attempt to avoid a potentially leading question, the Electoral Commission has recommended that the plebiscite’s options should be “remain” or “leave”. Downing Street has accepted the recommendation. |
| Related: Yes or no? In or out? It’s not just the phrasing of the EU vote that’s a mess | Steve Richards | |
| With the exception of one campaign group, In The Know – which has hinged its branding on the word no – campaigners for leaving the EU have been celebrating the decision by the elections watchdog. Avoiding the positive connotations of yes is being seen as a victory for those who want to persuade the UK to leave. | With the exception of one campaign group, In The Know – which has hinged its branding on the word no – campaigners for leaving the EU have been celebrating the decision by the elections watchdog. Avoiding the positive connotations of yes is being seen as a victory for those who want to persuade the UK to leave. |
| Related: EU referendum: PM accepts watchdog's advice to change wording of question | Related: EU referendum: PM accepts watchdog's advice to change wording of question |
| I'm glad the PM has accepted the Electoral Commission's recommendation on a fair question in the EU vote. Rigged ballots settle nothing. | I'm glad the PM has accepted the Electoral Commission's recommendation on a fair question in the EU vote. Rigged ballots settle nothing. |
| Big boost to Brexit campaign, Electoral Commission says E U referendum q shd not be 'Yes' or 'No' q. Q will be remain or leave instead | Big boost to Brexit campaign, Electoral Commission says E U referendum q shd not be 'Yes' or 'No' q. Q will be remain or leave instead |
| The Electoral Commission was previously criticised by some experts for allowing the Scottish referendum to have a yes or no question. At the time, the Electoral Commission did not appear to be concerned with the positive connotations of a yes option and reported: “Participants were clear that the yes and no answers were easy to understand, straightforward and unambiguous. While a few people suggested there could be a potential bias towards yes as it comes before no, they also recognised that the same could be true if the answers were reversed.” | The Electoral Commission was previously criticised by some experts for allowing the Scottish referendum to have a yes or no question. At the time, the Electoral Commission did not appear to be concerned with the positive connotations of a yes option and reported: “Participants were clear that the yes and no answers were easy to understand, straightforward and unambiguous. While a few people suggested there could be a potential bias towards yes as it comes before no, they also recognised that the same could be true if the answers were reversed.” |
| But ICM published a short paper in June this year, centred on the EU referendum, which found a yes phrasing could be worth up to four percentage points. “In short, it asks people to acquiesce with the status quo, and that probably helps,” it says. | But ICM published a short paper in June this year, centred on the EU referendum, which found a yes phrasing could be worth up to four percentage points. “In short, it asks people to acquiesce with the status quo, and that probably helps,” it says. |
| “Indeed, it was for this reason that many unionists criticised the UK government’s acquiescence to the SNP’s preferred Scottish independence referendum question wording where the positive response was framed as Scotland being an independent country rather than staying in the UK.” | “Indeed, it was for this reason that many unionists criticised the UK government’s acquiescence to the SNP’s preferred Scottish independence referendum question wording where the positive response was framed as Scotland being an independent country rather than staying in the UK.” |
| Related: No 10 accepts Electoral Commission's call for new EU referendum question - Politics live | Related: No 10 accepts Electoral Commission's call for new EU referendum question - Politics live |
| The rules are strict when it comes to the sort of claims that businesses can make using survey questions. The British competition authorities have a 39-page guide on how to avoid acquiescence bias that could lead to misleading marketing. | The rules are strict when it comes to the sort of claims that businesses can make using survey questions. The British competition authorities have a 39-page guide on how to avoid acquiescence bias that could lead to misleading marketing. |
| “This is an absolutely excellent decision for UK democracy,” Prof Patrick Dunleavy, co-director for the London School of Economics’ Democratic Audit UK research centre, told the Guardian. “Referenda can be highly coercive, and it’s very important that voters know exactly what they are voting for, by making the language as detailed as possible.” | “This is an absolutely excellent decision for UK democracy,” Prof Patrick Dunleavy, co-director for the London School of Economics’ Democratic Audit UK research centre, told the Guardian. “Referenda can be highly coercive, and it’s very important that voters know exactly what they are voting for, by making the language as detailed as possible.” |
| Dunleavy said that although he welcomed the ditching of a yes or no answer, he was concerned the question might not adequately convey the seriousness of leaving the EU, which he said was in effect voting to give up one’s rights as an EU citizen. | Dunleavy said that although he welcomed the ditching of a yes or no answer, he was concerned the question might not adequately convey the seriousness of leaving the EU, which he said was in effect voting to give up one’s rights as an EU citizen. |
| “I have felt the word ‘leave’ might not adequately convey what an important decision this is,” he said. “We had suggested the question might want to reflect that people are giving up rights, such as freedom of movement, and although the no campaign would object, it is actually true.” | “I have felt the word ‘leave’ might not adequately convey what an important decision this is,” he said. “We had suggested the question might want to reflect that people are giving up rights, such as freedom of movement, and although the no campaign would object, it is actually true.” |
| Psychologists have consistently found that people tend to stick with the status quo, whatever the subject. In a 1991 study about choosing electricity providers, subjects consistently rejected a more rational choice in favour of the company they knew. | Psychologists have consistently found that people tend to stick with the status quo, whatever the subject. In a 1991 study about choosing electricity providers, subjects consistently rejected a more rational choice in favour of the company they knew. |
| Concerns about status quo bias are what leads Matthew Sinclair, a senior consultant at Europe Economics, to suggest the out campaign should not be celebrating. “People tend to be cautious of change, which is something the out campaign would have to overcome anyway,” he told the Guardian. “But this question actually reinforces the status quo by repeating it twice. | Concerns about status quo bias are what leads Matthew Sinclair, a senior consultant at Europe Economics, to suggest the out campaign should not be celebrating. “People tend to be cautious of change, which is something the out campaign would have to overcome anyway,” he told the Guardian. “But this question actually reinforces the status quo by repeating it twice. |
| “‘Do you want to remain in the European Union or leave the European Union?’ That gives reinforcement and great salience to the status quo, which is very powerful. One could argue that in fact, the status quo is not really an option, because the EU is changing so rapidly. But people have to be informed about that.” | “‘Do you want to remain in the European Union or leave the European Union?’ That gives reinforcement and great salience to the status quo, which is very powerful. One could argue that in fact, the status quo is not really an option, because the EU is changing so rapidly. But people have to be informed about that.” |
| Coventry University Prof Matt Qvortrup, described by Alex Salmond as “the world’s foremost expert on constitutional referendum”, said he welcomed the change – but only because it would avoid a protracted debate over the question. | Coventry University Prof Matt Qvortrup, described by Alex Salmond as “the world’s foremost expert on constitutional referendum”, said he welcomed the change – but only because it would avoid a protracted debate over the question. |
| “My argument is that it actually doesn’t make a difference” he said. “If you try to use leading language in a referendum question, you are actually far more likely to get a no vote, because the public is immediately suspicious. We saw that with [the former French president] Charles de Gaulle’s constitutional referendum in 1969, as well as in Quebec in 1980 when the question was also massaged.” | “My argument is that it actually doesn’t make a difference” he said. “If you try to use leading language in a referendum question, you are actually far more likely to get a no vote, because the public is immediately suspicious. We saw that with [the former French president] Charles de Gaulle’s constitutional referendum in 1969, as well as in Quebec in 1980 when the question was also massaged.” |
| The most crucial decider, Qvortrup said, was a unified campaign. “People respond to that, campaigns where one side is not working together do not succeed, when there is a camp within a camp,” he said. | The most crucial decider, Qvortrup said, was a unified campaign. “People respond to that, campaigns where one side is not working together do not succeed, when there is a camp within a camp,” he said. |
| “When David Cameron and John Reid, the former Labour cabinet minister, spoke together on the AV voting reform referendum, people applauded it, even when their politics differed. It is not the question that matters, it is a unified, convincing campaign, and that is a problem the out campaign could face.” | “When David Cameron and John Reid, the former Labour cabinet minister, spoke together on the AV voting reform referendum, people applauded it, even when their politics differed. It is not the question that matters, it is a unified, convincing campaign, and that is a problem the out campaign could face.” |